“Bears have only one pick in the top 50!”

[bearmick]

Teams on average have either 1 or 2 top 50 picks every year. It's not possible to build a top roster that's all, or even mostly made up of your own top 50 draft picks. Quality rosters have plenty of later 2nd/3rd/4th/late round picks on them.

Option 1: picks 9 + 53 + 61 + 64 + #1WR + #2WR

Option 2: picks 1 + 33, when the 1 would be used on a DL anyway since the Bears aren't looking to draft a QB right now.

I'll take option 1 without hesitation.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

Of all the stupid draft narratives this is the one that annoys the shit out of me. Who decided pick 50 was the magical number where the good talent in the draft ends? Do I really need to remind folks of all the amazing players drafted end of round 2 and top of round 3?

Davante Adams (pick 53)
Travis Kelce (pick 63)
Frank Clark (pick 63)
Tyler Locket (pick 69)
Joe Thuney (pick 78)
Cooper Kupp (pick 69)
DK Metcalf (pick 64)
Fred Warner (pick 70)

And a lot more

Bears are sitting pretty with 3 picks between 53-64. Anyone who says they need to trade up is full of shit. Poles can if he wants to. But if he just stays put historically there is always legit talent there.

Better than I thought, I was hoping for a couple of picks in the 34-50 range for guys as good as the first round so I hope you're right.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

You're allowed to. Whether one is willing to purchase is another story.

I feel like this board is a good split between optimism and pessimism.

Is that 80 - 20 or 20 - 80?

 

[pdxbearsfan]

I like that Poles and Cunningham can collaborate for another offseason. We know Cunningham will probably be employed elsewhere soon, possibly as soon as next offseason. I think these guys have a good idea on how to get the franchise on the right path, drawing from their experience in KC and Philly. It doesn’t guarantee success or anything but the offseason chatter has been a lot more positive on Poles and Fields than I’m used to. I think the league and media see Poles and Cunningham as up-and-coming executives worth watching.

Agreed!

 

[DanielCCSBears]

Teams on average have either 1 or 2 top 50 picks every year. It's not possible to build a top roster that's all, or even mostly made up of your own top 50 draft picks. Quality rosters have plenty of later 2nd/3rd/4th/late round picks on them.

Option 1: picks 9 + 53 + 61 + 64 + #1WR + #2WR

Option 2: picks 1 + 33, when the 1 would be used on a DL anyway since the Bears aren't looking to draft a QB right now.

I'll take option 1 without hesitation.

Yes and that's what the caveat is the majority of your roster is with players that last on your roster for 5 or more years are made up of top-50 draft picks.

If you're building a successful team with players who will last 5 or more years in the NFL it's built with Top-50 picks.

Why is everyone acting like the draft experts and beat writers are wrong about this when this is so clearly been researched?

 

[DanielCCSBears]

George Kittle 146th pick in 2017

Those exceptions are more common than you think. People are just too lazy to look for all of them.

One selection out of 32. It baffles me how you think this is a good hit percentage.

 

[bamainatlanta]

You went all the way back to Joe Montana. So how many picks outside the Top-50 have their been since Joe Montana have failed?

I'm talking percentages and you're talking 1 percent of all players.

Why is math so hard for you?

You threw out Montana in 1979 NFL Draft.

You then followed up with a small list of players out of approximately 1200 players drafted since 1979 and you believe that means the Bears are likely to hit on those picks outside of the top-50.

Do you not see how absurd your take is?

No one is saying it never happens what they are saying is it very rarely ever happens. The odds are stacked against Poles that he'll find a long term starter outside of the number 9 overall pick.

Long term starter outside of the 9 pick? Is this a fucking joke??

Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?

On Monday morning during a discussion which appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box", I addressed some of Richard Thaler's findings in his examination of whether NFL teams overvalue first-round draft picks while undervaluing later-round picks. Despite all the advanced metrics being developed to assess...

www.forbes.com

From this study in 2015, 70% of the league’s starters were after the 1st round. Please stop with your nonsense.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

One selection out of 32. It baffles me how you think this is a good hit percentage.

I showed one and said that it is not that hard to find others.

Only an idiot would take that one example and think that it is the only example possible, idiot.

 

[DanielCCSBears]

Long term starter outside of the 9 pick? Is this a fucking joke??

Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?

On Monday morning during a discussion which appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box", I addressed some of Richard Thaler's findings in his examination of whether NFL teams overvalue first-round draft picks while undervaluing later-round picks. Despite all the advanced metrics being developed to assess...

www.forbes.com

From this study in 2015, 70% of the league’s starters were after the 1st round. Please stop with your nonsense.

Long term starter outside of the 9 pick? Is this a fucking joke??

Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?

On Monday morning during a discussion which appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box", I addressed some of Richard Thaler's findings in his examination of whether NFL teams overvalue first-round draft picks while undervaluing later-round picks. Despite all the advanced metrics being developed to assess...

www.forbes.com

From this study in 2015, 70% of the league’s starters were after the 1st round. Please stop with your nonsense.

You didn't even read the article.

67 percent of players that start 80 games are first round players.

We're looking for staying power on this roster not looking for the endless cycle of starting 5th round offensive linemen.

Given that the average career length is only 3.3 years, this begs the question of how much more likely are higher draft picks to stick around the league longer than later draft picks.

For simplicity, and with more time I would like to build a larger sample size, I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started. The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:

Percentage of Total Games Started
(Since 2010…80 games max)
GroupsMedian
Overall15.0%
1st67.5%
2nd33.8%
3rd36.3%
4th6.3%
5th4.4%
6th1.9%
7th0.0%
- The overall median “percentage of games started” by those players selected in the 2010 NFL Draft is 15%;

- 1st round draftees from that season started a higher median percentage of games (67.5%) compared to players drafted in other rounds;

 

[DanielCCSBears]

I showed one and said that it is not that hard to find others.

Only an idiot would take that one example and think that it is the only example possible, idiot.

The article Bama provided just proved my point. 67 percent of players who start 80 or more games were drafted in the first round.

If the Bears are going to develop a talented roster they're going to need more talent in the Top-50.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

The article Bama provided just proved my point. 67 percent of players who start 80 or more games were drafted in the first round.

If the Bears are going to develop a talented roster they're going to need more talent in the Top-50.

And 33% of the STARTERS are not. There are 22 starters total. 33% means that there are between 7 and 8 starters that come from elsewhere. That is NOT an insignificant number.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

The article Bama provided just proved my point. 67 percent of players who start 80 or more games were drafted in the first round.

If the Bears are going to develop a talented roster they're going to need more talent in the Top-50.

Wait a minute!

You just mentioned the article talking about 67% of players who start 80 or more games were in the 1st round. Then shit-for-brains says,

they're going to need more talent in the Top 50

Apparently, you do not know that the 1st round is usually only 32 picks long and is actually only 31 picks this year.

You just used that 50th pick to make the Bears 53rd, 61st and 64th picks sound bad. I could give you that the 61st and 64th picks being a bit too low, but the 53rd? That is just nitpicking 3 picks lower than 50 as some line in the sand where pick 50 is a future Hall of Famer and pick 53 is a future Hall monitor.

 

[dennehy]

The article Bama provided just proved my point. 67 percent of players who start 80 or more games were drafted in the first round.

If the Bears are going to develop a talented roster they're going to need more talent in the Top-50.

You need to reread, that isn't what the study finds. Unless you think that players who started 80 games or more goes up to about 145%.

What the study says is basically that just about as many guys who started 80+ games in that timeframe were drafted in R1 as in R2 and R3 combined. Then it drops off dramatically in R4. So 1/3 players drafted in R2 and R3 started 80 games. That is a lot of players, the same on average as from R1.

 

[Bearcub13]

I agree 50 seems like a pretty random number to cite but common sense would say the higher the pick the better chance at a good player.

Obviously there are outliers but that doesn’t exactly prove anything. Tom Brady was a late round pick but common sense says you probably want to draft a QB higher.

Same goes for just about every other position.

I still think we are weak at CB, and there are three of them on a good chunk of the plays...Kyler Gordon struggled in his rookie year and our back-up/slot corners do not instill fear in an offense. But, we need defensive linemen more than corners at this time.

 

[DanielCCSBears]

I still think we are weak at CB, and there are three of them on a good chunk of the plays...Kyler Gordon struggled in his rookie year and our back-up/slot corners do not instill fear in an offense. But, we need defensive linemen more than corners at this time.

We had a decent corner in Duke Shelley. Was he great? No. Good enough to be on the 53 and contribute? Yes.

Poles has done a good job of creating needs by desperately trying to find guys who perfectly fit the system.

The Bears need players period.