[A] Duncan Keith: Chicago Runs On Duncan

[Ton]

For the most part, Keith has been a stranger to the minus-rating his entire career, maybe even allergic to it. But, last year was the first time since the 2005-2006 season (his rookie campaign) that Duncan finished the season under zero.



Coming off an Olympic Gold, Stanley Cup, and Norris Trophy season, there's no question Duncan Keith suffered a set back in his career for the 2010-2011 season like most of the Chicago Blackhawks but let's be honest, that's hard to top. The proverbial Cup hangover seemed to effect the entire team, and Blackhawk fans quickly learned how important it was for Duncan to play well for the team to succeed.



This season has been a better story for Keith, despite his point production rolling on a similar pace to match last years offensive totals. The difference resides in his defensive game, which has jumped from minus-3 at the same point last year, to plus-14 this year. I'm not here to pretend that Keith is having a Norris season, because he isn't. But the improvement to his game could be a precursor in what is to come in the immediate future for the Blackhawks this season, who are 18-1-0 when Keith is a plus player.



Despite his veteran presence on the ice, Keith is still at the ripe age of 28 and his greatest asset--skating ability, has not slowed down. Several games this year Keith has made extraordinary plays to break up odd-man rushes with his speed as well as hustling to defend multiple breakaways without committing a penalty. The positive outlook is Duncan has shown a bit more patience in all areas of the ice along with using his speed properly, rather than the jittery panic he would display at times years ago.



There really is no explanation for the turn around, Keith has averaged 26:33 TOI/G compared to 26:53 TOI/G last year, which is nearly identical. If anything with Brian Campbell gone, it has forced Keith to play in more pressure situations. There is some truth in that statement, I'd even go as far as saying it's a fact that Keith has to face-off against the top quality of competition each and every night. This is proven by compiling the average relative plus-minus of opposing players each shift, weighted by head-to-head ice time. Both Keith and Seabrook remain as 2 of the top 3 candidates on this list in the entire NHL, meaning each and every shift they are facing players with the best plus-minus in the NHL and on each respective team.



In most scenarios, I wouldn't use any of these stats in order to determine how a player is playing, but in this case it clearly makes his plus-minus numbers a lot more impressive. Depending on how he ends the season, perhaps we may be witnessing a fully matured Duncan Keith, more developed than he even was in 2009-2010 when he raised the Cup over his head. Although the offensive numbers are not there to warrant a Norris nomination, he certainly has proven himself as a reliable player for the Blackhawks and someone I would consider a top 5 defenseman in the NHL this season. Along with Brent Seabrook, I still believe this is the best pairing in the entire NHL.



THE LAZY READER

• On pace to match offensive totals last year
  
• Major improvement in plus-minus
  
• The Blackhawks are 18-1-0 when Keith is a plus player
  
• Nearly identical TOI/G as last season
  
• Increased competition with Brian Campbell gone
  

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[Chief Walking Stick]

So he's as inconsistent as last year is what you're saying?

 

[Ton]

Not at all. I think he's improved a lot, especially with Campbell gone.



Where did I give you that impression?



I think Keith's value is underrated by Chicago and the NHL once again.

 

[MassHavoc]

So, I have nothing to back this up, but I think it's because he's back with Seabrook more.

 

[R K]

So, I have nothing to back this up, but I think it's because he's back with Seabrook more.

I think you are right.

 

[MassHavoc]

I think you are right.

While they are outstanding players apart, and raise the level of whoever they play with. I just feel like they are most effective for the team and each other when they are together. Probably a confort thing but it's what I see. I have no stats or time on ice numbers coupled with plus or minus and all that sabermetrics stuff, it's just what I notice when they are on the ice.

 

[Pez68]

The problem with splitting up Keith and Seabs is....nobody else on the team is good enough to play on a shutdown pairing. So, when they're split up, instead of one really good defensive pairing and two mediocre ones, you have three mediocre ones. Another shutdown defenseman(Hammer is NOT it) would go a really long way for this team. It's clear to me that Campbell and Hammer were REALLY protected from the other team's top guns. The more you see Hammer out there against them, the more it's clear he cannot keep up defensively. I never noticed how slow he was until this season, watching him try and beat the other team's forwards to loose pucks. It's depressing. I previously had really high expectations for Hammer, but they have plummeted into the basement.

 

[Maiden]

Chicago runs on Seabrook.

 

[R K]

Chicago runs on Seabrook.

I agree with this too. Seabrook is the ONLY shut down Dman this team has. While not offensive, and it hurts his game when he "trys" to be too offensive, he plays the top line of every team in every game..

 

[R K]

While they are outstanding players apart, and raise the level of whoever they play with. I just feel like they are most effective for the team and each other when they are together. Probably a confort thing but it's what I see. I have no stats or time on ice numbers coupled with plus or minus and all that sabermetrics stuff, it's just what I notice when they are on the ice.

They compliment each others style very well. One, Seabrook, is your stay at home D man. The other, Keith, is your up the ice, puck into the zone D man. Each are very good at their specialty and each can help cover the others weak aspects.



Similar to Weber and Suter. Very similar.

 

[Ton]

The only reason I say Chicago runs on Duncan is because if he isn't playing well, chances are we lose.



Of course being paired with Seabrook again helps him more than Leddy. The guy plays just over 26 minutes per game, this year I have to admit he looks much more comfortable out there than last year. Discussing who is the better defenseman isn't the point of what I was trying to make, the point was that Keith has gotten back to his regular self and the Keith/Seabrook pairing is starting to look like they could be the best D pairing in the NHL again.

 

[mikita's helmet]

While they are outstanding players apart, and raise the level of whoever they play with. I just feel like they are most effective for the team and each other when they are together. Probably a confort thing but it's what I see. I have no stats or time on ice numbers coupled with plus or minus and all that sabermetrics stuff, it's just what I notice when they are on the ice.

It's synergistic.

 

[R K]

The only reason I say Chicago runs on Duncan is because if he isn't playing well, chances are we lose.



Of course being paired with Seabrook again helps him more than Leddy. The guy plays just over 26 minutes per game, this year I have to admit he looks much more comfortable out there than last year. Discussing who is the better defenseman isn't the point of what I was trying to make, the point was that Keith has gotten back to his regular self and the Keith/Seabrook pairing is starting to look like they could be the best D pairing in the NHL again.

Yea I don't think it's a "whos better than who" argument at all. I think each plays completely different styles of D. Styles that compliment each other. What why Q's decision to split them up was and still is so mind boggling.



This team is in trouble without either one of them in the line up.

 

[Ton]

Yeah it never made sense playing Leddy with Keith. Hammer and Seabs was a dumb idea too. Seabs has improved a lot this year too.



I think the most interesting thing is the fact that both of them are playing against the best possible competition (always against high plus players) they can each night. Top 3 in the league, very impressive considering their plus-minus numbers are also outstanding.



18-1-0 when Keith is a plus player... that's no fluke.

 

[R K]

The only better pair in the league are Weber-Suter and I seriously doubt they are together after this season. When Keith and Seabs are a plus it means on most nights two things. One they shut the other teams top line down 5 on 5, or they scored goals during their shift. I could see why that stat is important in only considering who they play against on a nightly basis. Now before Q put them back together Seabrook was playing the top line, Keith the 2nd and 3rd from the other team.

 

[Shantz My Pants]

Keith isn't underrated. He's very inconsitent with his play and his defensive positioning has been sloppy. I do think being with Seabs has helped his +/- because he's not playing with Leddy who isn't the greatest shutdown D man. During a TSN interview about the potential 2014 Canadian Olympic team roster, Keith was taken off the roster and Seabs was taken off by Babcock for Pietrangelo. Just goes to show what NHL "experts'' and coaches think of Keith...

 

[Ton]

He's very inconsitent with his play and his defensive positioning has been sloppy.

Sounds like Nick Leddy more than Duncan Keith this year.



When Seabs and Keith are together, they're probably a top 3 pairing in the NHL.

 

[Shantz My Pants]

Sounds like Nick Leddy more than Duncan Keith this year.



When Seabs and Keith are together, they're probably a top 3 pairing in the NHL.

Yes, they do compliment each other very well.



That said, Keith is not great defensively. He's a spaz on the ice and he tries to do too much. He gets lucky as he does have good wheels, but he's out of position a lot and if you watch when a goal is scored when he's on the ice, its because the opposition was able to get behind him.

 

[Ton]

This year I've noticed less spaz and more patience. I think it's because he's with Seabrook, he feels more comfortable rather than running around trying to do everything, last year he was a total spaz with Leddy.

 

[Shantz My Pants]

This year I've noticed less spaz and more patience. I think it's because he's with Seabrook, he feels more comfortable rather than running around trying to do everything, last year he was a total spaz with Leddy.

I'll agree with that. Still, no Seabs and I don't see Keith being a Norris type Dman.