[A] Player Evaluation: Niklas Hjalmarsson

[Ton]

After acquiring Oduya at the 2012 trade deadline, many people believe the writing is on the wall for Hjalmarsson. He has two years remaining on his contract, shoots left, and some people believe he essentially brings the same game as Oduya only Nik has less to show on the offensive side of his game... a notion I cannot get behind. As much as I hope he stays in Chicago, I still wouldn't be surprised if he was moved.



I like Hjalmarsson... a lot. He plays a simple game, he's fearless, a true warrior, and excellent on the penalty-kill. Last year he had 142 blocked shots in 69 games, finishing 2nd on the team behind Brent Seabrook. The year prior, he led the team in blocked shots, and in his first full season he was 3rd behind both Keith and Seabrook.



He paired with Nick Leddy and Brent Seabrook for a majority of the 2011-12 season, although he did struggle at times with Leddy as his partner, he was still fairly steady for the majority of the year finishing with a plus-9.



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[/float]There hasn't exactly been a noticeable difference between the Hjalmarsson that won the Stanley Cup and the one that plays today. I think the only reason people pile onto him is because he signed the offer-sheet when the team needed cap space, effectively forcing Stan Bowman to ship out another player in order to keep him. Also, while most players improve year-by-year it seems like Hjalmarsson's development has been stagnant. This isn't exactly a bad thing because Nik was a solid player to begin with, I just think people expected more from him.



He's never going to hit everything in sight, he's never going to have a rocket from the point, he won't pinch to make a play, and he will never lead a rush with blazing speed. And that's okay. He just needs to be a steady presence that will block shots and stay in position. That's his home. Better off that he knows his role than forcing plays and trying to be the hero, that is when players of his caliber get themselves in trouble.



If the Blackhawks decide to keep him for the entire season, expect him to see time on the 2nd pairing as the steady stay-at-home defenseman as well as a boatload of minutes on the 1st penalty-killing unit.



PREDICTION: 79 GAMES | 17 POINTS | 168 BLOCKED SHOTS | PLUS-20



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[LordKOTL]

While I would say they're similar, Oduya's a bit better offensively and Hammer's a bit better defensively. I think the defensive aspect is the one thing Hammer does have going for him. That was arguable our biggest weakness last year: play in our own zone (by all players).



I think that for the 2 other lefty slots (since we all know Keith's not going anywhere), It will be the top two of Hammer, Leddy, and Oduya. Hammer's benefit going in is his defensive ability. Against him is the fact that Oduya was signed and Leddy shows promise. Management likley will err on the side of making themselves look good rather than doing what's best for the team.



Either way I agree, Hammer has to play his game and ideally be a compliment to Brookbank even if they aren't paired together; kill penalties, block shots, and be that presence in the backend--be that defensive defenseman. He needs to prove again that no matter who he's paired with, he won't be a liabiliy in the backend.

 

[Variable]

Holy ****, this team is going to be unstoppable going by these evaluations and predictions. The defense must have all had a hangover from the Cup hangover this past season because now everyone is like a +20. Hammer being a +20? Hossa almost a plus +20 with it being predicted that he'll miss over 20 games? Both Keith and Seabrook at or above +20? Crawford must have transformed into Hasek. Get the parade route ready.

 

[LordKOTL]

Hammer, Keith, Seabs, Hossa, and the like being +20 is not far fetched.



The question is whether or not Leddy, Oduya, Bickell, Kruger (if not carried by Hossa), Mayers, Bollig, and the like will be +/- wise.

 

[Variable]

Hammer has never been a +20. If he's a plus 20, along with Keith and Seabrook, the entire defensive system has taken a drastic 180 degree turn into the elite and/or Crawford has become a Vezina candidate. That's one of your main PK guys who doesn't get a lot of PP time. That's why I didn't say anything in the other threads, because I agree, it's not unbelievable that Toews will be up there or Seabrook, they're out there in all situations, and usually out there when they score. I was waiting on the secondary d-men. That means whoever he's paired with for the majority of the time has to be up there as well in high teens to plus 20 territory. And they can't possibly be scoring THAT much more than they have been the past 3 seasons, they're already top 5. So, yeah, I'd love it if these numbers stayed true, it'd be like a repeat of 09'-10.

 

[LordKOTL]

If Hammer is #3 on the defensive depth chart, I still think it's feasible...although looking at his humbers over the past 3 seasons (+9, +13, +9) it would be a stretch but not too far out of the ordinary. Plus, being on the PK means that his +'s should go up more than down, since giving up a goal while shorthanded doesn't count to +/-, while giving one up while up a man does. Further, guys like Sharp and Bolland are always a SHG threat.



+12 to +15 would be more realistic.



And last year he was paried with Leddy for a considerable of the time--he was +9 and Leddy was -12. I think a lot of the GA for Leddy happened in a defensive transistion or when Q's line combos came to him through divine inspiration.



Anyhow, just food for though.

 

[Variable]

Where he was last season is probably realistic. I'm just saying, going by THESE predictions, the Hawks will not only be one of the top scoring teams, but one of the top defensive teams, where a lot of people here thought their defense was average at best and horrible at worst. Out of the entire NHL last year there were 14 d-men that were a plus 20 or better. And only a few d-men who are thought of as pure defensive d-men who have less than 20 points. Barret Jackman, Johnny Boychuk, I guess you could include Willie Mitchell, and Salvador got close but that's about it.

 

[the canadian dream]

Hammer has become a blueliner where the blocked shot stats are the only really stat I care about in his game anymore. Once upon a time I think his hit totals and hit qualities were another part of his game worth watching. Not so much lately. He is expendable for sure but I still like him for what he is overpaid or not. I think he more than any other blueliner felt the impact of Campbell leaving. I can't see Hammers game being elevated any further than it is now. What you see is what you get. He's a good depth blueliner but nothing more. He needs to get back to hard smart hitting..if he doesn't? He will be a journeyman for the rest of his career. He should be a full on stay at home blueliner and he should be continued to be groomed as such because he has the DNA for that.



Biggest flaw with Hammer is one that was never his fault. Scotty Bowman picking him up and anointing him the next Lidstrom was one of the stupidest things that ever came out of his mouth (and there are a shit load of stupid things that come out of that guys mouth these days). Installed complete impossible expectations. Sure any fan with half a brain knew this was never going to be the case but you know there are a shit load of fans and media out there that cling to words of guys like Bowman even though the game has passed them by.

 

[Ton]

I knew someone would say that Hammer being a +20 would be a stretch, but I think he can do it. He's 25 and although I said his development has stalled, I think he will eventually see some improvement in his game. 168 blocked shots would be a career-high for him as well.



Again, we're talking about a guy that hasn't even entered the prime of his career. I expect him to at least be a +10 every year, some years he'll be down but some years he'll be up. The +20 isn't an expectation, it's a prediction and I realize it's a stretch.

 

[Ton]

Hammer has become a blueliner where the blocked shot stats are the only really stat I care about in his game anymore. Once upon a time I think his hit totals and hit qualities were another part of his game worth watching. Not so much lately. He is expendable for sure but I still like him for what he is overpaid or not. I think he more than any other blueliner felt the impact of Campbell leaving. I can't see Hammers game being elevated any further than it is now. What you see is what you get. He's a good depth blueliner but nothing more. He needs to get back to hard smart hitting..if he doesn't? He will be a journeyman for the rest of his career.



Biggest flaw with Hammer is one that was never his fault. Scotty Bowman picking him up and anointing him the next Lidstrom was one of the stupidest things that ever came out of his mouth (and there are a shit load of stupid things that come out of that guys mouth these days). Installed complete impossible expectations. Sure any fan with half a brain knew this was never going to be the case but you know there are a shit load of fans and media out there that cling to words of guys like Bowman even though the game has passed them by.

His hit totals haven't really changed throughout the years, but it seems like every year there is less of a "crunch" when I see Hammer hit someone.

 

[Variable]

I know it's not an expectation, but with that predication it means the Hawks will be one of, if not the, best team in the league, in almost all areas. A second pairing, no PP time, little offense defenseman netting a +20 with just a goal or two and 14 or 15 assists means a whole lot has changed either in net and/or defensively speaking. The Hawks didn't have a guy like that when they won the Cup. If that's what you think this team will be, that's cool. I hope so too.

 

[Ton]

I think the Hawks can be a top 5 team in the league, if that's what you are asking. They weren't too far off last year. Remember this has nothing to do with playoff predictions, Hawks very well could become one of those great regular-season teams and one-and-done playoff teams, but I'll reserve judgement on that until this season starts.



Look at someone like Vlasic (not the pickles), he's a defensive defenseman who blocks shots, similar to Hjalmarsson... he's had a +20 season before. Not claiming I am right either, Hammer could very well have a minus season on his hands as well.

 

[Variable]

I'm not taking playoffs into account. No matter what, that is quite a feat for Hammer to achieve, and like I said, even when they won the Cup, and a lot of people here believe that team to be one of the greatest of the X amount of years, they didn't have a player who did that. As good as they were.

 

[Ton]

I'm not taking playoffs into account. No matter what, that is quite a feat for Hammer to achieve, and like I said, even when they won the Cup, and a lot of people here believe that team to be one of the greatest of the X amount of years, they didn't have a player who did that. As good as they were.

Campbell, as the #3 defenseman, was a +18. I do get your point though, Campbell had 38 points. Hammer won't even come close to that, but as of now I'd peg him as the #3.

 

[the canadian dream]

I'm not taking playoffs into account. No matter what, that is quite a feat for Hammer to achieve, and like I said, even when they won the Cup, and a lot of people here believe that team to be one of the greatest of the X amount of years, they didn't have a player who did that. As good as they were.

Campbell was close to being the 3rd Hawks blueliner to hit +20 that season. +2 off. It was close. I agree though if Campbell couldn't have done it I highly doubt Hammer ever will. +20 is a pretty big task for a 3rd/4th guy let alone a 1/2 guy in this league. You gotta have some offensive touches also to reach those +/- numbers also. Hammer doesn't have them.

 

[Variable]

Yeah when I said "a player who did that" I meant a defensive first d-man who had little offensive skills. Campbell was/is one of the best offensive d-man in the league. There are very few of those that hit that mark who don't play an offensive game, and usually when it happens, it points to a larger team strength. Barret Jackman isn't going to set the world on fire, but the St Louis Blues as a whole were a great defensive team that season, that's why he reached that mark.

 

[LordKOTL]

Well, if you consider that Hammer was +9 and Leddy was -12, I think that part of Hammer's +/- score was being boatanchored by Leddy. Thus +12 might be more realistic depending on who he's paried with.



+20 would be plausible if he was paired with someone who wasn't a liability and got duty wth a scoring line.

 

[sniper]

i would be surprised if hjalmarsson passed the +15 mark. other than that the rest of it is spot on. similar boat as bolland, plays a good game and shouldnt be messed with.