Bears have only 10% chance of winning a Super Bowl in the next 3 years says TheScore

[CRM 114]

Ranking each team's chances of winning a Super Bowl in the next 3 years

The NFL often stands for "Not For Long," as significant changes occur every campaign. One season's contenders can fall flat the next, and quick rebuilds often elevate last-place squads to divisional championships.Such transformations got us thinking: How would each franchise fare in a three-year...

www.thescore.com

As he proved in 2018, Matt Nagy has a bright future as a head coach. Chicago's roster features a number of blue-chip players, especially on defense, who could keep it in contention for the foreseeable future. But two obstacles potentially stand in the way: Mitchell Trubisky and a lack of cap flexibility. Trubisky may eventually develop into a foundational quarterback, but he's battled inconsistency to date. If the Bears extend their signal-caller within the next two years, they'll likely be even tighter against the cap moving forward. With Trubisky on his rookie deal, Chicago's Super Bowl window is smaller than many believe, but the Bears have a plethora of young studs ready to break out.”

Trubisky is not surprisingly the #1 reason listed on why that number isn’t much higher (like Houston and Kansas City’s are). I honestly think if Pace had drafted Watson or Mahomes that they would be near the top of the league but unfortunately he settled for less. God help this team when Trubisky inevitably demands $30 million a year for holding the team back. Bears will be spineless enough to give him that too.

 

[Pegger]

I wonder what Doug Pederson's chances would have been the year the Eagles won? Going into that season all the talk was that he was a horrible hire, nobody else considered him a viable coaching candidate and he probably wouldn't make it through the season.

Anyway, currently the Bears, like all teams, have just over a 3% chance of winning. There is 1 champion and 32 teams, so without getting too complicated 1/32 = 3.125%.

 

[CRM 114]

I wonder what Doug Pederson's chances would have been the year the Eagles won? Going into that season all the talk was that he was a horrible hire, nobody else considered him a viable coaching candidate and he probably wouldn't make it through the season.

Anyway, currently the Bears, like all teams, have just over a 3% chance of winning. There is 1 champion and 32 teams, so without getting too complicated 1/32 = 3.125%.

That’s not how it works. Some teams (mostly teams with great QBs like New England, Kansas City and Houston) have better odds than others (mostly teams with shitty QBs like Tampa Bay, Chicago and the Giants)

 

[modo]

That’s not how it works. Some teams (mostly teams with great QBs like New England, Kansas City and Houston) have better odds than others (mostly teams with shitty QBs like Tampa Bay, Chicago and the Giants)

 

[gallagher]

That’s not how it works. Some teams (mostly teams with great QBs like New England, Kansas City and Houston) have better odds than others (mostly teams with shitty QBs like Tampa Bay, Chicago and the Giants)

What you are arguing isn't quantifiable, and the metric used by the article is conjecture. Odds and probabilities are a function of math.

What is quantifiable is that there are 32 teams and one winner. Probability isn't affected by how sports writers feel about your team, as they have no affect on outcomes.

The Patriots and the Giants, the Bears and the Packers, the Browns and the Ravens all have equal odds at winning the Superbowl. Roughly 3%. This is a failure of language that makes people look like they disavow math.

 

[CRM 114]

What you are arguing isn't quantifiable, and the metric used by the article is conjecture. Odds and probabilities are a function of math.

What is quantifiable is that there are 32 teams and one winner. Probability isn't affected by how sports writers feel about your team, as they have no affect on outcomes.

The Patriots and the Giants, the Bears and the Packers, the Browns and the Ravens all have equal odds at winning the Superbowl. Roughly 3%. This is a failure of language that makes people look like they disavow math.

Wrong but it’s cute that you think “Da Bears “ are in the same class as the Patriots. Are you and your meatball super fan buddies going to proclaim this the next time you march down Roosevelt dressed like a complete dweebus?

 

[CRM 114]

Please stay on topic. Thanks.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

10% is actually pretty good lol

 

[modo]

Please stay on topic. Thanks.

I did stay on your topic...mission accomplished

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Also, the cum guzzling going on with the Browns in the media is stupid. I hope they suck

 

[iueyedoc]

That’s not how it works. Some teams (mostly teams with great QBs like New England, Kansas City and Houston) have better odds than others (mostly teams with shitty QBs like Tampa Bay, Chicago and the Giants)

 

[Payton_34]

So the OP is another on a short list who wants to see Trubisky fail. After his first season in Nagy's offense he leads the team to 11 wins of the 14 he played in and you see gloom and doom for the future? Seriously?

If so, then go follow Houston. You seem to like that team better anyway.

 

[Bearly]

If we only had Foles!!!

 

[Raskolnikov]

10% is actually pretty good lol

Nagy has yet to be truly defeated by more than the last play of a game, a 2 TD 4th quarter, or a bounce here or there. If the Bears stay this hard to beat I'd say the true figure is between 10 and 25% somewhere. And yes...I think that is a very good and very high number given the competition of the NFL, and it would be way higher if Trubisky could throw left accurately.

 

[Bearly]

So you're saying there's a chance!

 

[FoCo]

The worst thing that will happen after this year is going to be when Khalil Mack edges out Trubisky for Superbowl MVP and we still have to listen to idiots talk about how Trubisky was the wrong pick because Mahomes or Watson would have won MVP. Even though they were both be at home sitting on their asses watching Mitch dominate.

 

[CRM 114]

View attachment 1684

I’m never mad.

So the OP is another on a short list who wants to see Trubisky fail. After his first season in Nagy's offense he leads the team to 11 wins of the 14 he played in and you see gloom and doom for the future? Seriously?

If so, then go follow Houston. You seem to like that team better anyway.

I don’t want to see Trubisky fail at all nor do I like Houston better. If Trubisky ups his game to that of Mahomes or Watson and the defense continues to dominate, the Bears would be one hell of a team to watch and rout for. I’m critical of Trubisky though because I don’t see him making that step and if he doesn’t he will continue to hold this team back from it’s true potential.

The worst thing that will happen after this year is going to be when Khalil Mack edges out Trubisky for Superbowl MVP and we still have to listen to idiots talk about how Trubisky was the wrong pick because Mahomes or Watson would have won MVP. Even though they were both be at home sitting on their asses watching Mitch dominate.

Get back to me when you’re ready to think realistically.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

These percentages are literally just someone's opinion. There is no mathematical formula or study that was done to derive the number. It's pretty useless.

I would rather look at something like 538 which will give a objective percentage based on raw data.

 

[iueyedoc]

I don’t want to see Trubisky fail at all nor do I like Houston better... I’m critical of Trubisky though because I don’t see him making that step and if he doesn’t he will continue to hold this team back from it’s true potential.

Based on what? Anyone seeing the monumental improvement from Yr1 to Yr2 and yet can't imagine him getting better, clearly is choosing to ignore what is most likely future outcome. You claim you don't want him to fail, but you sure as hell are ignoring every single statistic to make your case that he won't.

Sure seems like you want him to fail. Just sayin'.


�

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2017	23	CHI	QB	10	12	12	4-8-0	196	330	59.4	2193	7	2.1	7	2.1	70	6.6	6.1	11.2	182.8	77.5	31.6	31	196	5.53	5.05	8.6	0	1	7
2018*	24	CHI	QB	10	14	14	11-3-0	289	434	66.6	3223	24	5.5	12	2.8	70	7.4	7.3	11.2	230.2	95.4	72.8	24	143	6.72	6.59	5.2	1	2	13
Career				26	26	15-11-0	485	764	63.5	5416	31	4.1	19	2.5	70	7.1	6.8	11.2	208.3	87.7		55	339	6.20	5.91	6.7	1	3	20

Yeah, I don't see any sign that his arrow is pointing up.

 

[gallagher]

Wrong but it’s cute that you think “Da Bears “ are in the same class as the Patriots. Are you and your meatball super fan buddies going to proclaim this the next time you march down Roosevelt dressed like a complete dweebus?

Yo dude in not trying to crawl up your ass so the personal crap isn't needed.

We aren't in the same class as the Patriots. We have the same probability of winning the Superbowl 1 in 32. They aren't conflicting claims. Interestingly enough, I'm putting our odds at less than what the article would claim, so you aren't even coming at me about what I'm arguing at all.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick continue to be the best of this generation and have the rings to prove it. And we still have the same 1-32 odds as every other team right now. But you're goddamn right I'll talk us up with other fans on gameday. I did it last year when I went to the CHI - NE game and we were a yard away from overtime. I root for the bears against every team.