Christian Villaneuva Review

[FirstTimer]

From FanGraphs

This was written in January, but is being re-posted with Villanueva on his way to Chicago as part of the Ryan Dempster trade.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-pyf0oGanU&feature=player_embedded

In 2011, Hickory was a hotbed of minor league talent including the best true shortstop prospect in baseball and multiple first round picks in catcher Kellin Deglan, center fielder Jake Skole and pitcher Luke Jackson. If not for being blown away by Boston Red Sox shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts, my trip to Greenville would have been highlighted by a modestly performing, all but unknown third base prospect named Christian Villanueva. Villanueva went on to belt 10 home runs and steal 14/15 bases over the final two months of the season raising his prospect profile to legitimate sleeper.

Overall, Christian Villanueva joined former Marlins first round pick Christian Yelich, along with top-10 Red Sox prospect Brandon Jacobs as the only prospects in the league who belted 15 or more home runs and swiped 30-plus bags. And while Yelich and Jacobs rode exorbitantly high BABIP’s to the prospect promise land, Villanueva’s .300 mark was more sustainable than sexy leading to his being overlooked.

In batting practice, Villanueva consistently utilized quick, explosive hands and a level swing plane to pepper line drives to left-centerfield with a handful leaving the park each session. Additionally, he crushed a home run to left field off of what was admittedly a fringe average fastball at best in game action, but it was truly a “no doubter” which ricocheted off of the brick condominiums behind the Green Monster of Fluor Field.

Command of the strike zone is a key aspect of Villanueva’s game to monitor going forward. Strong contact skills are an asset, but when a young player expands the strike zone like Villanueva did, it will lead to poor contact on batted balls and higher strikeout rates. This is also the likely reason for a BABIP a touch low for his speed tool and low walk rates.

On defense, Villanueva is in the top three of third baseman I’ve had the opportunity to scout along with Marlins Matt Dominguez and Phillies Travis Mattair. He possesses lightning quick feet, soft hands and a strong throwing arm leaving little doubt as to whether Villanueva can stick at third base long term. In fact, Villanueva’s defensive skills and body control are so strong, second base seems like a viable option where his offensive skill set would be a better fit. However, with only two third basemen posting four win seasons compared to six at second base in 2011, third base appears to be in the midst of a down period in terms of overall talent at the Major League level.

With 32 stolen bases in 38 attempts, Villanueva has enough speed to project as an elite base stealer at his position. Of course Diamondbacks Ryan Roberts led qualified third baseman with 18 and was the only one in double-digits, so the bar isn’t exactly set very high. As for Villanueva, he will lose a step or two at full physical maturity, but his agility and quickness will allow him to maximize the speed he does have. At the big league level, he projects as a player who should average about 15 steals annually.

For me, the best part of scouting a game in person are those rare instances when an unknown prospect forces me to take notice. Each year, those opportunities are less than a reader would assume as maybe a half dozen players, if that, truly fit the criteria. Of those players, Christian Villanueva was the best of the bunch in 2011 and ranked only behind Jurickson Profar in terms of position prospects on that ball club.

A comp to Braves Martin Prado is imperfect, but provides some insight into the type of value Villanueva projects for at the Major League level. At 20, Villanueva and Prado posted similar OPS numbers (.803 to .785) in the South Atlantic league behind a trade off of power (Villanueva) for on base skills (Prado). However, Villanueva’s potential for positional flexibility, double-digit home run totals at the Major League level, and modest walk rates work quite well. Villanueva’s strong defensive skills may be the kicker which allows him a higher peak WAR projection.

Between Villanueva and Mike Olt, the Rangers organization boasts two solid third base prospects with Adrian Beltre signed through at least 2015. This organizational depth can be used to add pieces at the big league level via trade, or as insurance in case of injury. Villanueva will never be a true centerpiece of a deal for a player such as Matt Garza, but would be an excellent addition as a third or fourth piece of a larger package.

 

[Rice Cube]

Schweet.

 

[FirstTimer]

What I get from this is a possible by by to Darwin Barney/Zeke DeVoss at somepoint.

 

[Rice Cube]

What I get from this is a possible by by to Darwin Barney/Zeke DeVoss at somepoint.

Many possibilities at the waiver deadline and this offseason.

 

[dabynsky]

It will be interesting to see. The guy has some upside, and isn't crap is what we are learning. This with a throw in is clearly worth than a comp pick which was the level the Cubs had to reach.

 

[2SeamHeat]

From FanGraphs

So, possible 20-30 guy with excellent defense at 3B? Right handed bat. Talks about having quick feet and good range and a potential to move to 2B! That's awesome! He does only have 9 SBs this year, though, with 9 CS. So I wonder if he's ailing there, or they just haven't been giving him the green light. Like the fact that his OBP is 70 points above his BA. Seems to strike out a lot, but not disastrously or alarmingly so. He seems to know how to put the ball into the air and drive in guys from 3rd, with 13 SFs last year and 5 so far this year. The big surprise in his stats though... he's been hit 20 times this year. 12 times last year. So... Craig Biggio clone?

 

[dabynsky]

I think his speed is average, and like Baez is an aggressive base runner picking on A ball pitchers inability to hold runners. The power is going to be the key because if he plays good defense with 20 HR power that is a pretty good major league 3B. We will see if that power develops. His skillset as more of a doubles hitter would play better at 2B, but I am guessing the glove goes from special to good at best with that transition.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Now we have a good bit of specs for 3B it seems. Vitters is doing well and raising his stock in Iowa this year. Lake has done well in Tennessee, and has spent a substantial amount of time at 3B this year. Baez can end up anywhere from SS, 2B, 3B, and the OF from what I can tell and is killing it at Peoria. Candelario is doing well at Boise right now, but struggles defensively. Now we have Villanueva who's probably going to end up in Daytona and push Cerda out of the picture. That's a pretty solid potential prospect at basically every level. Hell, there are three guys playing well in Mesa.

 

[dabynsky]

The Cubs system is actually pretty good and deep with position prospects. If we had any pitching at the upper levels this is probably a top 10 system.

 

[dabynsky]

http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-talk/Kap-Cubs-didnt-maximize-return-for-Demps?blockID=749245&feedID=8487

Kaplan's take from talking to scouts. Gist of the article is that the Cubs took a huge loss from getting Delgado, which is kind of a well duh statement.

 

[Rice Cube]

http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-talk/Kap-Cubs-didnt-maximize-return-for-Demps?blockID=749245&feedID=8487

Kaplan's take from talking to scouts. Gist of the article is that the Cubs took a huge loss from getting Delgado, which is kind of a well duh statement.

The Delgado deal would have been a home run. This is more of a solid single.

 

[2SeamHeat]

http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-talk/Kap-Cubs-didnt-maximize-return-for-Demps?blockID=749245&feedID=8487

Kaplan's take from talking to scouts. Gist of the article is that the Cubs took a huge loss from getting Delgado, which is kind of a well duh statement.

He's basically overlooking the Maholm trade. I think we got Dempster quality return for Maholm and Johnson... and Maholm and Johnson quality return for Dmepster. Kind of evens out.

 

[dabynsky]

Yeah I mentioned a similar thing. We will never know what we would have gotten for Maholm-Johnson elsewhere, but I think it is safe to say the Braves offer was better than anything else by quite a bit. Very high reward lottery ticket that is Vizcaino because he could be a top of the rotation starter (absolutely best case and most unlikely) to a great backend of the bullpen arm (I think a pretty solid bet) or he could flame out the Angel Guzman route as well.