beckdawg
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Those topic were pretty well liked prior to the season so I thought I'd do a midseason look given now's when people start putting up revised top-x lists. A couple of notes first. I'm using cub's den rankings since they give you more of a deep look rather than top 10 or top 20. Secondly, I'm going to do in order they ranked rather than pitchers/hitters because the list isn't out in total. They are doing them incrementally. And finally, I'm not a scout. I'm looking at this mostly from a metric stand point and projecting based on that. So, keep that in mind. I prefer that look because it's relying more on what they've done rather than what they might be able to do. It will also be heavy on metrics so if something's not necessarily clear what it's important or what it does feel free to ask and I'll clear it up as best as I can. Player comparisons will be based on likely peak not what they are probable to be.
Apparently this year they are only doing the top 15. However they have some honorable mention plus a promised fast risers list. I could also take a look at some guys I noticed with good numbers. ETA is their's except for Zastryny which they left off so I assumed it was similar to similar level players.
As an additional reference, Iowa(PCL) is considered a hitter friendly league with the 5.2 runs per game(5th out of 19). Tenn.(Southern) is neutral to slightly in favor of pitchers at 4.5 runs per game(4 way tie for 12th-15th out of 19). Daytona(Fla St) is the fewest runs scored of any minor league at 4.2 per game. Kane County(Midwest) is tied with Tenn. at 4.5 runs per game. Boise at 4.7 runs per game is tied for 8th-11th out of 19. Arizona(rookie) is the second best hitting league at 5.6 runs per game. And the Dominican/Venezuelan leagues at 4.7 and 4.8 respectively slightly favor hitters. The AL over that same span was 4.6 runs per game and the NL was 4.3. Keep in mind however that minors in general will be higher scoring because pitching tends to develop slower than hitting.
#1. Kris Bryant, 22, 3B, AAA, Iowa ETA: 2015
I tend to agree with him here though they have mentioned some scouts view it as a toss up between him and Baez who's better. I think me saying he's really good isn't really needed. I think a better question is how good. I've mentioned this in the prospect thread but his wRC+ has been ridiculous. At the major league level 150 is good. And for those who aren't aware, wRC+ is basically a way of measuring runs created normalized to 100 being average. I'm fairly sure it's park adjusted meaning higher scoring leagues don't completely overshadow as well as playing in coors in the majors. Additionally, by having a 150 wRC+ you're basically saying that person is worth 50% more runs to a team.
With that in mind, at all levels above his 2 games in rookie ball after being drafted he's had a wRC+ of 200 or better. I recently looked to see how common that is on fangraphs. They have minor league stats going back to 2006. I think there were 4 players who had a 190 or higher wRC+ in all AA leagues since then. Giancarlo Stanton was one at 206. Mike Moustakas had a 194. Kevin Kouzmanoff had a 193. Stanton was in the southern league similar to Bryant. Kouz was in the Eastern league and Moustakas was in the Texas league. AA in general isn't really extreme one way or another in terms of hitter/pitcher leagues. Kouz however did it as a 24 year old. Moustakas was 21. Stanton was 20 and Bryant is obviously 22. 22 is probably about the right age for that level.
In some ways that's amazing because only 4 people have done it in the past 9 years. Though, some would see Kouz and Moustakas and question the value which is probably fair. I think Kouz was more a case of him just being way advanced for the level. Moustakas is a bit more of an oddity. I could go into it more if people wish but basically it comes down the fact that in the majors he's hitting a ton of fly balls(46%) and around 17.5% of them don't leave the infield. Because of that, his BABIP is getting murdered and in turn murdering his average. That in turn tanked his value and he's been kind of garbage. As an aside, if the Royals ever wanted to part with him, he would be an interesting guy to try and fix because his walk/k rate are still pretty good and he's been good defensively.
Anyways, back to Bryant. Obviously the majority of numbers are good. The lone worry is K rate. Its high but not astronomical. Apparently 20% is around league average these days. Excluding AAA this year the rest of his career he's roughly been between 22.1% and 27.4%. Given the way he's rushed through the system it's not all that surprising it is high because by the time he's adjusted to a league he's basically been promoted. In his last 30 or so games prior to promotion to AAA he was hovering around 20%. His 31.4% in AAA is a bit of a worry but as I said I think it's the rapid promotion. Consider for a moment that he wasn't even signed last year out of college until July 21st and he went from R-AAA in under a year. That's not totally unheard of for an advanced college player but it's something to keep in mind.
Additionally, his 10%+ walk rate indicates someone who knows how to identify pitches. it's been suggested by some that he's too patient and needs to learn to take pitches he can hit for singles rather than trying to mash everything. That seems to work well with the numbers in my opinion. Even then it's a relatively minor gripe.
The one area that doesn't get talked about much with Bryant is his defense. In my personal opinion he is better suited for RF where he played in college. At 3B in the minors he has 20 errors in 299 chances for a fielding% of .933. As a reference, Anthony Rendon who's been slightly below average using UZR/150(-0.3) who stats people prefer as a defensive metric was at .938 in the minors. At 0 UZR/150 you're considered average with numbers above or below being runs below average you allow over 150 games. Pedro Alvarez has been pretty bad(-6.5) and he had a .930 fielding% in the minors. Given Bryant's size you're probably talking something more like Alvarez. Bryant is 6-5/215 vs 6-3/235 for Alvarez and 6-0/195 for Rendon.
That being said, he's probably an offensive monster who plays decent defense in RF. His college coach thought he could be a gold glove RF. I'm not really seeing anything in the numbers other than the minor defense and k rate gripes.
Player Comparison: Tim Salmon? It's a tough comparison to make because if we look at players since 1950 who played RF, batted .280 or better, and had 8% bb rate or higher and 18% k rate or higher you're only talking about him, Manny, Abreu and Choo. Salmon wasn't a great defensive player in the OF. Abreu and Choo are entirely different kinds of hitters. And Manny was pretty much a train wreck defensively but arguably one of the best hitters ever. Steroids era Sosa might not be a terrible comparison though I doubt Bryant is hitting 50+ HRs regularly.
If we scale that back to 3B instead you're talking about A-Rod, Dick Allen, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, and David Freese. Arod and Wright have way more speed. Bryant has more power than Youkilis and Freese. I honestly don't know much about Dick Allen given he played from 63-77. Numbers wise he hit around 30-40 HRs a year and had .292/.378/.534 career triple slash. Looks like he's below average defensively at .927 fielding%(UZR wasn't around then). So maybe him. Willie Stargell and Josh Hamilton are two other names that pop out in LF.
2. Javier Baez, 21, SS, AAA, Iowa ETA: 2015
In contrast to Bryant, I think Baez's k rate is something to worry about. That may seem odd given that Baez was at 28.8% in AA last year and is at a similar 32.6% in AAA to Bryant. One of the main reasons I feel it's different is Bryant has done that while managing to hit above .333 at every level. Baez on the other hand has been between .243 and .294 at ever level except A(.333 in 57 games) and rookie ball(.333 in 3 games). The general consensus I've read about Baez from more scouty sources is that he's too aggressive. In other words, he's kind of the polar opposite of Bryant. He's much more of a free swinger where as Bryant is waiting for his pitch too much. The reason that is more worrying is because it's harder to teach a player to be less aggressive. We saw this with Castro last year.
That's not to say that Baez is destined to be a bust. He's been much better recently with that. And his walk rate has steadily climbed as he's progressed through the minors. It's not quite as nice as Bryant but 7.9% in AA and 7.7% in AAA this year I believe that's right around league average. I think it's more of a case with Baez needing more seasoning which honestly is fair given he's 21 and Bryant is 22.
On the other hand, Baez has arguably been much better defensively this year. I mentioned this in the prospect thread but 31 of his 78 career errors occurred in 73 games in Daytona for whatever reason. I looked back and Castro similarly had something like 30 errors in 90 games there. Might just be a case of poor upkeep on the field comparatively to the higher minor league levels leading to bad hops. His .962 fielding% in AAA is actually pretty good. To put that into perspective, Troy Tulowitzki had a career .948 fielding% in the minors. He really only had two stints there before appearing in the majors. He played 19 games in A+ as a 20 year old and 102 games in AA as a 21 year old both with .948 fielding% Tulow's won two gold gloves at 6-3/215 vs Baez's 6-0/190. Both have similar speed in terms of SB's and scouting reports I have seen on Baez's arm suggest it's near elite level(65 on the 20-80 scale).
Overall, I personally think he can play SS, but given they already have Castro there a move to 3B seems the most likely. Some would suggest 2B, but he's pretty good defensively and if you're moving Bryant out of 3B as I suggest 3B is a much more valuable position and it's likely to make him better defensively as it's not as hard as SS. He's also got surprising speed and might have a shot at 40/40 before he bulks up too much. He stole 27 bases in 94 games in 2012. He only stole 20 in 130 games last year. And he's got 14 in 72 this year. So, 40 might be overly optimistic. But still perhaps 30 in 150ish games wouldn't be out of the question. That's a bit surprising for someone with a 50 run grade.
Player Comparison: Depends a bit on his position. At SS, he's potentially some where between Tulow and A-Rod which is to say the best SS in the league during his generation by quite a margin. Tulow isn't an amazing comparison though because he's at 10.1%/15.7% bb/k rates which I would be stunned to see Baez get to. If we look at players since 1950 with bb% greater than 6%, k% greater than 18% and isolated power greater than .200(Rizzo's is .224 this year) A-Rod's really the only SS that fits. Jose Valentin is the only other player. If we look at 3B, you're talking about a lot of similar names to the Bryant deal. Additionally, we're talking about Mike Schmidt, Evan Longoria, Troy Glaus, Jose Bautista, Phil Nevin, Dean Palmer, Russell Branyan, Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez, Olmedo Saenz, and Shane Andrews. Schmidt kind of fits with what I think Baez could be but I don't see Baez with a 15.0%/18.7% bb/k rate. At 2B, you're talking about Soriano and Uggla.
Overall, I sort of feel like Soriano and A-Rod lite are the best comparisons. He wont have as much speed as either and he's probably closer to Soriano's 5.9%/21.4% career bb/k rate than A-Rod's 10.9%/18.3%. Not to mention their respective .270/.319/.500 and .299/.384/.558. Some where between these two feels about right to me.
3. Arismendy Alcantara, 22, AAA, Iowa ETA: 2014
I'm glad to see cubs den have him #3 because I've been saying for awhile now I think he may end up a better pro than Almora and Soler basically since the first one of these I did. You're basically talking about someone who is likely to hit for 20-25 HRs and steal 35+ bags out of the middle infield. That sort of production is very very rare. That's one of the reasons Baez is so appealing at SS/2B. Overall, from a numbers perspective his walk rate could be very good. Last year in AA it was 10.9%. Thus far it's been 6.4% in AAA which isn't terrible but isn't great either. He's been steadily raising it recently. I believe it was as low as 3% around a month ago and since then it has been back in the 10% range. So, likely a sample size issue/poor start. His K rate is slightly below average at 21.9% in AA last year and 23.1%. Not terrible by any means but you wouldn't mind seeing it dip below 20%.
He's also got surprising isolated power though for him it's more in terms of doubles/triples. We all know how ridiculous Bryant's season has been. However, he's only had 23 doubles and 0 triples. Baez has 15 and 2 this year plus 34 and 4 in 2013. Alcantara has 22 and 10 this year and had 36 and 4 last year. Talk about a great future table setter.
Defensively, there's questions of where he will play. I don't personally buy the concept of him playing CF. It's easy to say "Oh he's fast he can do it." A lot of people are fast and a lot of people aren't very good in CF. Almora has a 50 run grade and is considered excellent because he reads balls very well. Additionally, when you talk about someone like Soriano who moved from 2B to the OF, he went to LF not CF and Soriano had as much if not more speed. Some believe he wont be particularly good anywhere defensively. I personally think he can be average or above at 2B. Generally speaking, a even UZR/150 equates to around a .970 fielding% at 2B in the minors. This season Alcantara is at .966 and he was at .954 last year. Some may suggest this is me forcing him into a situation but honestly, given the real concerns about Bryant at 3B I feel it's a fine concept. You can make a strong argument that Baez to 3B, Alcantara to 2B and Bryant to RF makes all of them better defensively where as Baez to 2B, Bryant to 3B and Alcantara to OF makes all but Baez worse.
Player Comparison:Ian Kinsler(early in his career)/Jason Kipnis
Alcantara is the one player other than Baez and Bryant that I feel may end up in the super star territory if things go right. If you compare where he should be to Kipnis' 2013 in particular you're talking about a 4.5 WAR player even with below average defense(-6.3 UZR/150). If he's plus defensively there you're talking maybe something slightly less than Kinsler's 7.3 WAR 2011.
4. Albert Almora, 20, A+, Daytona ETA: 2017
A lot of people are down on Almora this year because he's hitting .259/.283/.341. That's probably unfair given the bit I mentioned about Daytona being a unfriendly hitter league. He's also a year or so young there at 20. That being said, a 3.0% needs to improve. He's unlikely to ever be super strong there as his best thus far has been 6.3%. However, he makes up for that by striking out a lot less with around an 11.5% k rate. Projecting his power is a bit more difficult. Scouting grades have him at a 55 vs Alcantara's 45. That's probably a low estimate on mlb.com's part for Alcantara as I would assume 55 is likely in the 20-25 range. However, in the case of Almora, he's not showing it yet. In 82 games last year he had 4 HRs. He has 3 in 71 this year. While I can buy the concept of people adding power as they add muscle with age, it's a tough road to go from 8ish to 25.
Those ratings also show the contrast between him and Baez as both have 50 for their run tool. As I mentioned Baez looks like he could steal between 20-30 a season. Almora has 4 last year and 6 this year. I don't see that getting better. So, again, they probably have Baez too low though it might be because they assume like A-Rod and others as he adds power he will lose mobility.
Overall, it's hard for me to see star player out of Almora's numbers even if he reaches his peak. There are cases of players like Almora finding their power in their prime years. Carlos Gomez in particular comes to mind. However, it's honestly less likely that Almora is going to be much of a speed threat.
Player Comparison: Denard Span is the first name that comes to mind though Almora probably doesn't seem to have as much speed and could have more power. However, both are similar low walk low k guys as well as being great defensively. And honestly, on players like Almora I think people misunderstand what these rankings mean in terms of player. Span is a pretty damn good baseball player but if and when Almora ever becomes him people almost assuredly are going to be mad because he isn't Trout or McCutchen. If you're feeling particularly low on Almora, you might be talking Jon Jay. If you're feeling particuarly high on him, you're probably talking Desmond Jennings or Coco Crisp.
5. Kyle Schwarber, 21, C/LF, A, Kane County ETA: 2017
Not sure I agree with cubs den on him being this high. They might have been some what caught up in the hype of his monster start which I suppose is fair. Some might want to read this most of all but unfortunately it's going to be short. Not a lot of data yet. And the data there is basically is him crushing leagues he's too old for which happens when you draft college players. I mentioned Almora was young for A+ at 20. Well, Schwarber has crushed Boise and Kane at 21 which are lessor leagues. That being said I will make an effort here. Just realize its a super small sample size and I reserve the right to be totally off based on that.
So, 14.6%/17.1% bb/k rate? Quite nice. It was only 8.3%/8.3% however that was literally 5 games. So, his 10 in Kane is literally double. I'm not going to comment much on the counting stats here because a .412/.512/.882 triple slash in A for someone old for the league is bound to drop at AA/AAA level. To what extent is hard to say. But, for some bonus I'm gonna talk about his college stats. He hit .300/.390/.513, .366/.456/.647 and .358/.464/.659 in around 60 games each year at Indiana. So, when they said he was the best college bat in the draft I find that very easy to believe. If you toss in a 11.1%/8.9%, 14.9%/13.2%, 15.7%/10.7% walk/k rates that cements things a bit. I don't have a particularly strong knowledge of college stats and which conferences are hitters conferences or how that compares to various levels minor league wise.
That being said, you're honestly talking about similar rates to what Bryant hit though Bryant struck out at a slightly higher rate and walked at a slightly better rate. Again that's the WCC vs Big 10 so those numbers might mean a lot more in one or the other in terms of talented face. I'm not sure. Bryant hit 31 HRs his final college year. Schwarber hit 8, 18, and 14. Keep in mind that's less than half a season compared to the majors. Scouts put him at 65 power prior to the draft. Bryant is at 70. Based on the numbers that feels about right. So, you're probably talking 30 HR type. I'd say Rizzo and him probably have similar power projection.
Defensively, you're guess is probably as good as mine. They don't have shit for college defensive stats on the site I found his offensive numbers. He's played all of 6 games in LF and has yet to have an error. He's played all of 6 games at C and has 2 for a fielding% of .966. Most think he's highly unlikely to stay at C. Given his advanced bat and the fact he's a work in progress behind the plate, that's likely true. He will probably hit his way to AA/AAA soon like Bryant did in which case he wont have time to get better at C and thus LF is where he stays. At that point, I'm not sure it's even worth bothering talking about defense because I mean you stick your shittiest defensive player there generally and as long as they rake who cares?
Player Comparison:Jesus really? Fine.... This is likely going to be a super liberal estimate. I'm gonna go with something like greater than 10% bb rate, less than 18% k rate and LF and look for power hitters so iso over .200 again like I did with Baez. And here's what's gonna happen. You're going to get some ridiculous names because anyone who has those two particular walk/k rates is going to be pretty fucking good. And the winners are... Barry Bonds, Frank Robinson, Stan Musial, Lance Berkman, Brian Giles, Ted Williams, Rocky Colavito, Albert Belle, Bob Allison, Ryan Klesko, Kevin Mitchell, Roy Sievers, Ralph Kiner, and Hank Sauer. The worst player on that list is arguably Sauer and he made 2 all star teams and won the 1952 NL MVP. Rocky Colavito was a 9x all-star. Bob Allison was a 3x all-star. Ralph Kiner was a 6x all-star. Roy Sievers was a 5x all-star. Kevin Mitchell was a 2x all-star and 1989 MVP. Ryan Klesko was a 1x all-star. Brian Giles was a 2x all-star. I don't think I need to mention what Bonds, Robinson, Musial, Berkman, Williams, and Albert Belle were.
I'm in no way prepared to name him with those guys. However, if he has a Giles or Klesko like career both were pretty good in their day. Having seen these names you sort of see why the cubs were so high on him though. That walk/k rate with his power is a pretty ridiculous combo. Incidentally, Klesko, Giles, Bonds, Williams, Berkman(switch), and Musial were all lefties. I'm honestly not even sure how to narrow down that search to give more realistic names because the only time he's had a sub 10% walk rate was the 5 games in Boise. And the worst rate he's struck out at is the 10 games in Kane for 17.1%. And if we assume he has Rizzo like power you're talking at least .200 ISO. And just know I feel really homer-ish even mentioning him with these names. But, that's what the number say at the moment.
6. Jorge Soler, 22, OF, AA, Tennessee ETA: 2016
Wont be much here that I didn't already bring up in the pre-season look. I believe I mentioned there that it's tough seeing the 65 power rating mlb.com gave him. Maybe not those exact words as I don't think the ratings were out at that point. But I'm sure I mentioned his power rating and numbers didn't match. Similar to Almora, it could be a case of growing into his body. I can buy him more as a 20-25 HR guy but at 65 you're saying him and Schwarber have similar power projections which seems off to me.
Overall, he's probably a decent hitter if he ever stays healthy. Hard to say exactly where he will fall. His walk rate has steadily improved into the 10% range. Given he was 11.1% in AA this year, and 8.9% at A+ last year I think that 10% area is an ok guess. However, 5.6% in the AFL coming off a wrist injury IIRC is disconcerting. K rate has been decent outside again the AFL. Sub-19% in most cases. Average has been all over the place from .270 to .333. His A+ season of .281/.343/.467 seems like a safe bet of what he can do especially given Daytona being a pitching friendly league. So, that plus 20-25 HRs and 10 SB maybe.... if he doesn't pull a hammy walking to the bating circle.
Defensively he looks very solid in RF and the scouting seems to agree. Not sure he's gonna be Ichiro there but should definitely be a plus defender.
Player Comparison: Jason Heyward feels like too much but numbers wise... I don't know. You're talking about a career .257/.350/.433 hitter with 11.5%/19.9% bb/k rate as an excellent defender. Granted he's done that from age 20-24 and Soler is already 22. Maybe a better defensive Jayson Werth? There's apparently not a lot of plus defenders in RF these days. He's not Justin Upton or Rios as he's not quite the power/speed combo. Definitely not Stanton. Jay Bruce with less power and a better average/k rate might be ok. Angel's era Torii Hunter would be a fine comparison too I think.
7. C.J. Edwards, 22, RHP, AA, Tennessee ETA: 2016 or possibly late 2015
There's a lot to love about Edwards though like Soler it's pretty much the same stuff I said prior to the season because he got hurt. The guy flat out strikes people out. His 20 innings in AA where his lowest of his career at 8.71 k/9. At the MLB level 9 k/9 puts you in the 15 starters. His next lowest stint was 11.25. The question is often can people do that without walking players. Generally anything below 3 bb/9 is pretty decent. He's been between 2.74-3.64. Given he's only 22 that's not really bad at all because pitchers are often on a longer time table than hitters. As a reference Pierce Johnson is 23 in AA and Kyle Hendricks is 24 in AAA. So like Almora, he may be a bit young for AA. His ERA and FIP have also been pretty stellar.
The biggest question is does he stay a starter. He's tall enough but at 155 lbs he really needs to fill out.
Player Comparison:Pedro Martinez comes to mind as a 5-11/170 player who was super successful. Pedro had 9.5 k/9 in the minors to go with 3.7 bb/9. Lincecum is another smallish starter at 5-11/170. Cole Hamels is 6-3/195. Patrick Corbin is 6-2/185. Zack Greinke is 6-2/195. Kris Medlen is 5-10/190. Jeremy Hellickson is 6-1/190. Ervin Santana is 6-2/185. Jeff Locke is 6-0/190. Travis Wood is 5-11/175.
Miguel Gonzalez is 6-1/170. Jarrod Parker is 6-1/195. Mike Leake is 5-10/185. Bronson Arroyo is 6-4/195. That accounts for all the sub-200 lb pitchers out of 81 qualified. So that's what 13 out of 81? 16% isn't a ringing endorsement for that sort of body type. And of those only Hamels and Lincecum are within a range of k/9 you would expect out of Edwards(eg 8+).
Those are some what poor comparisons because their more based on his size rather than his numbers. But, given the concern about players his size staying in the rotation I felt it was right. Even if he adds 15 pounds which would be a lot of muscle you're still talking about a pretty slight guy especially at 6-2.Maybe like Pedro it wont matter but even with Pedro you're talking about a guy who did have a lot of injuries in his career.
8. Jen-Ho Tseng, 19, RHP, A, Kane County ETA: 2017
You can make a legitimate argument that he's the cubs best pitching prospect. He's 19 at Kane which is definitely early for that age and yet he's still had a 3.22/2.80 ERA/FIP with 9.12 k/9 and 1.25 bb/9. I read something awhile back that mentioned control in general is the most under rated aspect with regard to pitching. This will come up again when I talk about Hendricks so I'll leave it at that.
Player Comparison: Here's where the fun comes. The numbers many not look spectacular but it's that bb/9 that's the sexy aspect. 16 pitchers had a sub 2 BB/9 in 2013. Of those, if we round anything 7 k/9 or higher you're talking about 9 guys. Cliff Lee(8.97/1.29), David Price(7.28/1.30), Adam Wainwright(8.16/1.30), Matt Harvey(9.64/1.56), Dan Haren(8.01/1.64), Hisashi Iwakuma(7.58/1.72), John Lackey(7.65/1.90), Chris Sale(9.49/1.93), and Clayton Kershaw(8.85/1.98). If you want to be a little more inclusive, Jordan Zimmerman(6.79/1.69), Doug Fister(6.86/1.90), and Hiroki Kuroda(6.71/1.92). Tseng may not get the love he deserves with regard to top 100 lists because 9.12 k/9 while good isn't earth shattering the way someone like Edwards is but he arguably should at least make the top 100 if he continues this over the season
9. Pierce Johnson. 23, RHP, AA, Tennessee ETA: 2016 or late 2015
I think my opinion of Pierce has changed some what since the last set of these. I seem to recall being more amped on him for whatever reason. I likely say a 9ish k/9 and the 2.84 bb/9 in A and was impressed. I probably ignored the 3.88 bb/9 at A+. This year his k/9 has dropped a fair amount and his bb/9 has risen a lot at least in AA at 8.10. At around 9 k/9 and sub 3 bb/9 you can pretty easily see someone as a potential #2. It's possible this is just a bump in the road but it sort of feels like it may be more of a 3/4 starter. Keep in mind at 23 he's probably age appropriate for the leagues he's been in.
Player Comparison: I'm not sure its fair to do these on pitchers in general. But without knowing where his baseline is it's really tough to say. It's pretty fair to say that your K/9 drops around 2 from minors to the majors as the quality of hitting is so much better. So, if we say he's a 7 k/9 3 bb/9 type you're talking about Travis Wood types as well as Yovani Gallardo. Troubling in that you're also talking about Edwin Jackson. With pitching in general these are hard because a lot of pitching is determined by pitch usage which minor leagues have poor reporting on. It's much easier comparing major league players because pitch f/x tracks all sort of pitch data you don't have in the minors.
10. Kyle Hendricks, 24, RHP, AAA, Iowa ETA: 2014
Here's a guy that doesn't get enough love. You can basically take most of what I said about Tseng and apply it here. The one caveat is that Hendricks hasn't had the k/9... until this year. He'd typically been in the 6-7 k/9. This year in AAA he's at 8.18.
Player Comparison:He seems a lot like Doug Fister. I'd argue Tseng may be a better Hendriks and thus in the conversation with the guys I mentioned. Hendricks is going to live in the lessor range like Fister if he ends up making it. However, you could also throw Bronson Arroyo, older Bartolo Colon, Eric Stults and maybe Hiroki Kuroda and Jordan Zimmermann types in there. That being said, if you can get people out and don't walk people that's a ticket to success that Tommy Milone, Kris Medlin, Patrick Crobin, and Jordan Lyles have all used to great effect with the only one of those four ever to make a top 100 list being Lyles at #42 in 2011.
11. Paul Blackburn, 20, RHP, A, Kane County ETA: 2017
I'm guessing I likely said there wasn't enough data on him prior to the season. I've heard some are high on him. The good is he's thrown a lot of strikes having a 2.14 bb/9. That's substantially better than what he did in Boise. However, he looks to be more of a 7 k/9 guy. His ERA's been good at sub 3.50
Player Comparison: You're likely talking 3-5 starter with that sort of K rate unless something improves. Not going to throw out any player here just generic 3-5 starter.
12. Arodys Vizcaino, 23, RHP, AAA Iowa ETA: September 2014
I would absolutely love for him to some how regain his starter status but it appears he's likely a full time bullpen guy now due to injuries. He still has fantastic stuff that made him a high top 100 prospect. 10.00 k/9 at A+ and 10.54 k/9 at AA this season. His control has been a bit spotty but given a 2 year layoff that's not surprising. He also had 1.98 bb/9 in his AA stint which was in line with what he was doing prior to injury.
Player Comparison: If we assume that stellar k/9 and bb/9 you're likely talking one of the best closers in the game. What Koji Uehara did last year wouldn't be out of the question. If they do end up stretching him out again and letting him start it's tough to say. He clearly has top of the rotation stuff and control is more just a question of durability.
13. Dan Vogelbach, 21, 1B, A Daytona ETA: 2016
Similar to Almora he started the season pretty horribly. He's rebounded quicker. Again, likely a case of Daytona just being pitcher friendly. He's hitting .276/.366/.437 with 11.9%/16.9% bb/k rate. Like with Schwarber, that's going to set you up for a good selection of hitters. However, his ISO isn't nearly as high at roughly 160 in A+ and A. MLB.com gave him a 60 rating there prior to the season. So, you're likely talking 25 HR max.
Defense has been a question about him because he's 1B/DH only. I'm guessing fielding% probably isn't the best measure at 1B. But if we use that he's at .990 which is clearly a good thing.
Player Comparison: If we toss on a filter of 10%/18% bb/k rate or better and an ISO off .160 or better and look at 1B we get a number of really good hitters though he's probably not going to hit with the power that a lot of these guys have given his ISO. Kevin Millar could be a fair comparison as a career .274/.358/.452 hitter with 18-25 HRs a season and a similar k/bb rate. There's some other names that appear to be well before my time that might fit but I'm fairly comfortable with the Millar comparison.
14. Jacob Hannemann, 23, OF, A Kane County ETA: 2017
He had almost no data prior to the season so I'm guessing I didn't say much. Since then he's broke out some. He's currently hitting .260/.333/.386 with 5 homers and 28 steals. One minor issue is age. At 23 he's a bit old for Kane County but from my understanding he's mormon and did their missionary stuff which is why he was set back. The speed is a welcome bit given the relatively meager speed overall the cubs have in their system. He also walks at a decent clip of 8.9% and k's under 20%(barely) which is decent.
Defensively, I've read he needs some work but looking at the numbers he doesn't appear totally lost in CF with a .960ish fielding%
Player Comparison: If he turns into a good defense CF you are potentially talking someone like Michael Bourn. However, Bourn's defense in CF from 2009-2012 was basically gold glove caliber. I'm not sure if he won one without looking it up but I'm guess he might based on his UZR stats. So, potentially you might have a lessor version of that.
15. Rob Zastryzny, LHP, A Daytona ETA: 2017
He was likely another guy with not enough info on prior to the season. His ERA has been shit but if you can look past that there's positive signs here. His FIP is 3.53 so it's likely he's had some bad defense behind him. At 9.10 k/9 and 2.28 bb/9 those are potentially top of the rotation numbers. Also being a lefty helps him here as they are tougher to find.
Player Comparison: basically a similar grouping to what Tseng had given his great bb/9. That being said, pitching can be all over the place year to year so while this is definitely encouraging you often just don't know until they reach AA/AAA.
Just missed the cut
Gioskar Amaya, 2B, A, Daytona
There's not a ton to love here. He's honestly a bunch of empty stats. He might hit 10 homers and might steal about 15-20 bags. Positional scarcity helps him a little. .286/.372/.362 in A+ really isn't terrible and is bb/k rate is good. But it's hard to project these type of numbers to a starter especially given the wealth of players ahead of him. He has potentially plus defense apparently so could end up being a decent bench piece.
Player Comparison:I'm guessing bench piece.
Stephen Bruno, 2B, AA, Tennessee
Speaking of wealth of talent ahead of Amaya... All Bruno has done since being drafted is raked. He had a really hot start to the year then fell off a little. He's still hitting .288/.365/.428 after hitting .362/.436/.478 in A+ last year. Perhaps I'm a bit hypocritical saying Amaya is empty stats given Bruno has less power and less speed while walking less and striking out more.
Defensively Bruno appears to at a similar level to Alcantara.
Player Comparison: I've heard people throw out Pedroia comparisons but I think that's a bit of a stretch. Howie Kendrick seems like a similar hitter but Bruno's likely not as good defensively. Probably a bench piece similar to Amaya unless he goes back to hitting .360 like he did in A-/A+ .
Dropping off the list:
Christian Villanueva, 3B, AA, Tennessee
He struggled a little in AAA and was supplanted by Bryant. However since his send down to AA he's hitting .311/.367/.467. And his calling card is his defense. I've said before he's likely to end up being a starter for someone at 3B down the line but probably not the cubs.
Player Comparison:Todd Frazier maybe. Basically he's an example of why Villanueva will likely start in the majors. Similar walk/k rates and is hitting .234/.314/.407 with good defense. Shocking how that keeps people jobs but that's positional scarcity for ya.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, A, Kane County
He got pretty crushed in A+. At 20 he is still young for A+ similar to Almora. And even then his walk/k rate were fine. His .212 BABIP wasn't helping matters. However, without more batted ball data which no one has for minors AFAIK it's hard to say why this was. He might be making bad contact and hitting a ton of fly balls. Or, he might just have been unlucky. It's kind of difficult projecting him as a 3B long term. His power grade long term was 50. So, you're talking less potential power than Almora. There's also questions about his defense. However, I'm not sure his offense plays any better in the corner OF or 1B and they already have an embarrassment of 2B prospects.
Player Comparison:It's more difficult to place him than Villanueva. Perhaps positional scarcity helps him too but there's not a ton of 3B who hit 10-15 HRs without giving you something else major.
Apparently this year they are only doing the top 15. However they have some honorable mention plus a promised fast risers list. I could also take a look at some guys I noticed with good numbers. ETA is their's except for Zastryny which they left off so I assumed it was similar to similar level players.
As an additional reference, Iowa(PCL) is considered a hitter friendly league with the 5.2 runs per game(5th out of 19). Tenn.(Southern) is neutral to slightly in favor of pitchers at 4.5 runs per game(4 way tie for 12th-15th out of 19). Daytona(Fla St) is the fewest runs scored of any minor league at 4.2 per game. Kane County(Midwest) is tied with Tenn. at 4.5 runs per game. Boise at 4.7 runs per game is tied for 8th-11th out of 19. Arizona(rookie) is the second best hitting league at 5.6 runs per game. And the Dominican/Venezuelan leagues at 4.7 and 4.8 respectively slightly favor hitters. The AL over that same span was 4.6 runs per game and the NL was 4.3. Keep in mind however that minors in general will be higher scoring because pitching tends to develop slower than hitting.
#1. Kris Bryant, 22, 3B, AAA, Iowa ETA: 2015
I tend to agree with him here though they have mentioned some scouts view it as a toss up between him and Baez who's better. I think me saying he's really good isn't really needed. I think a better question is how good. I've mentioned this in the prospect thread but his wRC+ has been ridiculous. At the major league level 150 is good. And for those who aren't aware, wRC+ is basically a way of measuring runs created normalized to 100 being average. I'm fairly sure it's park adjusted meaning higher scoring leagues don't completely overshadow as well as playing in coors in the majors. Additionally, by having a 150 wRC+ you're basically saying that person is worth 50% more runs to a team.
With that in mind, at all levels above his 2 games in rookie ball after being drafted he's had a wRC+ of 200 or better. I recently looked to see how common that is on fangraphs. They have minor league stats going back to 2006. I think there were 4 players who had a 190 or higher wRC+ in all AA leagues since then. Giancarlo Stanton was one at 206. Mike Moustakas had a 194. Kevin Kouzmanoff had a 193. Stanton was in the southern league similar to Bryant. Kouz was in the Eastern league and Moustakas was in the Texas league. AA in general isn't really extreme one way or another in terms of hitter/pitcher leagues. Kouz however did it as a 24 year old. Moustakas was 21. Stanton was 20 and Bryant is obviously 22. 22 is probably about the right age for that level.
In some ways that's amazing because only 4 people have done it in the past 9 years. Though, some would see Kouz and Moustakas and question the value which is probably fair. I think Kouz was more a case of him just being way advanced for the level. Moustakas is a bit more of an oddity. I could go into it more if people wish but basically it comes down the fact that in the majors he's hitting a ton of fly balls(46%) and around 17.5% of them don't leave the infield. Because of that, his BABIP is getting murdered and in turn murdering his average. That in turn tanked his value and he's been kind of garbage. As an aside, if the Royals ever wanted to part with him, he would be an interesting guy to try and fix because his walk/k rate are still pretty good and he's been good defensively.
Anyways, back to Bryant. Obviously the majority of numbers are good. The lone worry is K rate. Its high but not astronomical. Apparently 20% is around league average these days. Excluding AAA this year the rest of his career he's roughly been between 22.1% and 27.4%. Given the way he's rushed through the system it's not all that surprising it is high because by the time he's adjusted to a league he's basically been promoted. In his last 30 or so games prior to promotion to AAA he was hovering around 20%. His 31.4% in AAA is a bit of a worry but as I said I think it's the rapid promotion. Consider for a moment that he wasn't even signed last year out of college until July 21st and he went from R-AAA in under a year. That's not totally unheard of for an advanced college player but it's something to keep in mind.
Additionally, his 10%+ walk rate indicates someone who knows how to identify pitches. it's been suggested by some that he's too patient and needs to learn to take pitches he can hit for singles rather than trying to mash everything. That seems to work well with the numbers in my opinion. Even then it's a relatively minor gripe.
The one area that doesn't get talked about much with Bryant is his defense. In my personal opinion he is better suited for RF where he played in college. At 3B in the minors he has 20 errors in 299 chances for a fielding% of .933. As a reference, Anthony Rendon who's been slightly below average using UZR/150(-0.3) who stats people prefer as a defensive metric was at .938 in the minors. At 0 UZR/150 you're considered average with numbers above or below being runs below average you allow over 150 games. Pedro Alvarez has been pretty bad(-6.5) and he had a .930 fielding% in the minors. Given Bryant's size you're probably talking something more like Alvarez. Bryant is 6-5/215 vs 6-3/235 for Alvarez and 6-0/195 for Rendon.
That being said, he's probably an offensive monster who plays decent defense in RF. His college coach thought he could be a gold glove RF. I'm not really seeing anything in the numbers other than the minor defense and k rate gripes.
Player Comparison: Tim Salmon? It's a tough comparison to make because if we look at players since 1950 who played RF, batted .280 or better, and had 8% bb rate or higher and 18% k rate or higher you're only talking about him, Manny, Abreu and Choo. Salmon wasn't a great defensive player in the OF. Abreu and Choo are entirely different kinds of hitters. And Manny was pretty much a train wreck defensively but arguably one of the best hitters ever. Steroids era Sosa might not be a terrible comparison though I doubt Bryant is hitting 50+ HRs regularly.
If we scale that back to 3B instead you're talking about A-Rod, Dick Allen, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, and David Freese. Arod and Wright have way more speed. Bryant has more power than Youkilis and Freese. I honestly don't know much about Dick Allen given he played from 63-77. Numbers wise he hit around 30-40 HRs a year and had .292/.378/.534 career triple slash. Looks like he's below average defensively at .927 fielding%(UZR wasn't around then). So maybe him. Willie Stargell and Josh Hamilton are two other names that pop out in LF.
2. Javier Baez, 21, SS, AAA, Iowa ETA: 2015
In contrast to Bryant, I think Baez's k rate is something to worry about. That may seem odd given that Baez was at 28.8% in AA last year and is at a similar 32.6% in AAA to Bryant. One of the main reasons I feel it's different is Bryant has done that while managing to hit above .333 at every level. Baez on the other hand has been between .243 and .294 at ever level except A(.333 in 57 games) and rookie ball(.333 in 3 games). The general consensus I've read about Baez from more scouty sources is that he's too aggressive. In other words, he's kind of the polar opposite of Bryant. He's much more of a free swinger where as Bryant is waiting for his pitch too much. The reason that is more worrying is because it's harder to teach a player to be less aggressive. We saw this with Castro last year.
That's not to say that Baez is destined to be a bust. He's been much better recently with that. And his walk rate has steadily climbed as he's progressed through the minors. It's not quite as nice as Bryant but 7.9% in AA and 7.7% in AAA this year I believe that's right around league average. I think it's more of a case with Baez needing more seasoning which honestly is fair given he's 21 and Bryant is 22.
On the other hand, Baez has arguably been much better defensively this year. I mentioned this in the prospect thread but 31 of his 78 career errors occurred in 73 games in Daytona for whatever reason. I looked back and Castro similarly had something like 30 errors in 90 games there. Might just be a case of poor upkeep on the field comparatively to the higher minor league levels leading to bad hops. His .962 fielding% in AAA is actually pretty good. To put that into perspective, Troy Tulowitzki had a career .948 fielding% in the minors. He really only had two stints there before appearing in the majors. He played 19 games in A+ as a 20 year old and 102 games in AA as a 21 year old both with .948 fielding% Tulow's won two gold gloves at 6-3/215 vs Baez's 6-0/190. Both have similar speed in terms of SB's and scouting reports I have seen on Baez's arm suggest it's near elite level(65 on the 20-80 scale).
Overall, I personally think he can play SS, but given they already have Castro there a move to 3B seems the most likely. Some would suggest 2B, but he's pretty good defensively and if you're moving Bryant out of 3B as I suggest 3B is a much more valuable position and it's likely to make him better defensively as it's not as hard as SS. He's also got surprising speed and might have a shot at 40/40 before he bulks up too much. He stole 27 bases in 94 games in 2012. He only stole 20 in 130 games last year. And he's got 14 in 72 this year. So, 40 might be overly optimistic. But still perhaps 30 in 150ish games wouldn't be out of the question. That's a bit surprising for someone with a 50 run grade.
Player Comparison: Depends a bit on his position. At SS, he's potentially some where between Tulow and A-Rod which is to say the best SS in the league during his generation by quite a margin. Tulow isn't an amazing comparison though because he's at 10.1%/15.7% bb/k rates which I would be stunned to see Baez get to. If we look at players since 1950 with bb% greater than 6%, k% greater than 18% and isolated power greater than .200(Rizzo's is .224 this year) A-Rod's really the only SS that fits. Jose Valentin is the only other player. If we look at 3B, you're talking about a lot of similar names to the Bryant deal. Additionally, we're talking about Mike Schmidt, Evan Longoria, Troy Glaus, Jose Bautista, Phil Nevin, Dean Palmer, Russell Branyan, Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez, Olmedo Saenz, and Shane Andrews. Schmidt kind of fits with what I think Baez could be but I don't see Baez with a 15.0%/18.7% bb/k rate. At 2B, you're talking about Soriano and Uggla.
Overall, I sort of feel like Soriano and A-Rod lite are the best comparisons. He wont have as much speed as either and he's probably closer to Soriano's 5.9%/21.4% career bb/k rate than A-Rod's 10.9%/18.3%. Not to mention their respective .270/.319/.500 and .299/.384/.558. Some where between these two feels about right to me.
3. Arismendy Alcantara, 22, AAA, Iowa ETA: 2014
I'm glad to see cubs den have him #3 because I've been saying for awhile now I think he may end up a better pro than Almora and Soler basically since the first one of these I did. You're basically talking about someone who is likely to hit for 20-25 HRs and steal 35+ bags out of the middle infield. That sort of production is very very rare. That's one of the reasons Baez is so appealing at SS/2B. Overall, from a numbers perspective his walk rate could be very good. Last year in AA it was 10.9%. Thus far it's been 6.4% in AAA which isn't terrible but isn't great either. He's been steadily raising it recently. I believe it was as low as 3% around a month ago and since then it has been back in the 10% range. So, likely a sample size issue/poor start. His K rate is slightly below average at 21.9% in AA last year and 23.1%. Not terrible by any means but you wouldn't mind seeing it dip below 20%.
He's also got surprising isolated power though for him it's more in terms of doubles/triples. We all know how ridiculous Bryant's season has been. However, he's only had 23 doubles and 0 triples. Baez has 15 and 2 this year plus 34 and 4 in 2013. Alcantara has 22 and 10 this year and had 36 and 4 last year. Talk about a great future table setter.
Defensively, there's questions of where he will play. I don't personally buy the concept of him playing CF. It's easy to say "Oh he's fast he can do it." A lot of people are fast and a lot of people aren't very good in CF. Almora has a 50 run grade and is considered excellent because he reads balls very well. Additionally, when you talk about someone like Soriano who moved from 2B to the OF, he went to LF not CF and Soriano had as much if not more speed. Some believe he wont be particularly good anywhere defensively. I personally think he can be average or above at 2B. Generally speaking, a even UZR/150 equates to around a .970 fielding% at 2B in the minors. This season Alcantara is at .966 and he was at .954 last year. Some may suggest this is me forcing him into a situation but honestly, given the real concerns about Bryant at 3B I feel it's a fine concept. You can make a strong argument that Baez to 3B, Alcantara to 2B and Bryant to RF makes all of them better defensively where as Baez to 2B, Bryant to 3B and Alcantara to OF makes all but Baez worse.
Player Comparison:Ian Kinsler(early in his career)/Jason Kipnis
Alcantara is the one player other than Baez and Bryant that I feel may end up in the super star territory if things go right. If you compare where he should be to Kipnis' 2013 in particular you're talking about a 4.5 WAR player even with below average defense(-6.3 UZR/150). If he's plus defensively there you're talking maybe something slightly less than Kinsler's 7.3 WAR 2011.
4. Albert Almora, 20, A+, Daytona ETA: 2017
A lot of people are down on Almora this year because he's hitting .259/.283/.341. That's probably unfair given the bit I mentioned about Daytona being a unfriendly hitter league. He's also a year or so young there at 20. That being said, a 3.0% needs to improve. He's unlikely to ever be super strong there as his best thus far has been 6.3%. However, he makes up for that by striking out a lot less with around an 11.5% k rate. Projecting his power is a bit more difficult. Scouting grades have him at a 55 vs Alcantara's 45. That's probably a low estimate on mlb.com's part for Alcantara as I would assume 55 is likely in the 20-25 range. However, in the case of Almora, he's not showing it yet. In 82 games last year he had 4 HRs. He has 3 in 71 this year. While I can buy the concept of people adding power as they add muscle with age, it's a tough road to go from 8ish to 25.
Those ratings also show the contrast between him and Baez as both have 50 for their run tool. As I mentioned Baez looks like he could steal between 20-30 a season. Almora has 4 last year and 6 this year. I don't see that getting better. So, again, they probably have Baez too low though it might be because they assume like A-Rod and others as he adds power he will lose mobility.
Overall, it's hard for me to see star player out of Almora's numbers even if he reaches his peak. There are cases of players like Almora finding their power in their prime years. Carlos Gomez in particular comes to mind. However, it's honestly less likely that Almora is going to be much of a speed threat.
Player Comparison: Denard Span is the first name that comes to mind though Almora probably doesn't seem to have as much speed and could have more power. However, both are similar low walk low k guys as well as being great defensively. And honestly, on players like Almora I think people misunderstand what these rankings mean in terms of player. Span is a pretty damn good baseball player but if and when Almora ever becomes him people almost assuredly are going to be mad because he isn't Trout or McCutchen. If you're feeling particularly low on Almora, you might be talking Jon Jay. If you're feeling particuarly high on him, you're probably talking Desmond Jennings or Coco Crisp.
5. Kyle Schwarber, 21, C/LF, A, Kane County ETA: 2017
Not sure I agree with cubs den on him being this high. They might have been some what caught up in the hype of his monster start which I suppose is fair. Some might want to read this most of all but unfortunately it's going to be short. Not a lot of data yet. And the data there is basically is him crushing leagues he's too old for which happens when you draft college players. I mentioned Almora was young for A+ at 20. Well, Schwarber has crushed Boise and Kane at 21 which are lessor leagues. That being said I will make an effort here. Just realize its a super small sample size and I reserve the right to be totally off based on that.
So, 14.6%/17.1% bb/k rate? Quite nice. It was only 8.3%/8.3% however that was literally 5 games. So, his 10 in Kane is literally double. I'm not going to comment much on the counting stats here because a .412/.512/.882 triple slash in A for someone old for the league is bound to drop at AA/AAA level. To what extent is hard to say. But, for some bonus I'm gonna talk about his college stats. He hit .300/.390/.513, .366/.456/.647 and .358/.464/.659 in around 60 games each year at Indiana. So, when they said he was the best college bat in the draft I find that very easy to believe. If you toss in a 11.1%/8.9%, 14.9%/13.2%, 15.7%/10.7% walk/k rates that cements things a bit. I don't have a particularly strong knowledge of college stats and which conferences are hitters conferences or how that compares to various levels minor league wise.
That being said, you're honestly talking about similar rates to what Bryant hit though Bryant struck out at a slightly higher rate and walked at a slightly better rate. Again that's the WCC vs Big 10 so those numbers might mean a lot more in one or the other in terms of talented face. I'm not sure. Bryant hit 31 HRs his final college year. Schwarber hit 8, 18, and 14. Keep in mind that's less than half a season compared to the majors. Scouts put him at 65 power prior to the draft. Bryant is at 70. Based on the numbers that feels about right. So, you're probably talking 30 HR type. I'd say Rizzo and him probably have similar power projection.
Defensively, you're guess is probably as good as mine. They don't have shit for college defensive stats on the site I found his offensive numbers. He's played all of 6 games in LF and has yet to have an error. He's played all of 6 games at C and has 2 for a fielding% of .966. Most think he's highly unlikely to stay at C. Given his advanced bat and the fact he's a work in progress behind the plate, that's likely true. He will probably hit his way to AA/AAA soon like Bryant did in which case he wont have time to get better at C and thus LF is where he stays. At that point, I'm not sure it's even worth bothering talking about defense because I mean you stick your shittiest defensive player there generally and as long as they rake who cares?
Player Comparison:Jesus really? Fine.... This is likely going to be a super liberal estimate. I'm gonna go with something like greater than 10% bb rate, less than 18% k rate and LF and look for power hitters so iso over .200 again like I did with Baez. And here's what's gonna happen. You're going to get some ridiculous names because anyone who has those two particular walk/k rates is going to be pretty fucking good. And the winners are... Barry Bonds, Frank Robinson, Stan Musial, Lance Berkman, Brian Giles, Ted Williams, Rocky Colavito, Albert Belle, Bob Allison, Ryan Klesko, Kevin Mitchell, Roy Sievers, Ralph Kiner, and Hank Sauer. The worst player on that list is arguably Sauer and he made 2 all star teams and won the 1952 NL MVP. Rocky Colavito was a 9x all-star. Bob Allison was a 3x all-star. Ralph Kiner was a 6x all-star. Roy Sievers was a 5x all-star. Kevin Mitchell was a 2x all-star and 1989 MVP. Ryan Klesko was a 1x all-star. Brian Giles was a 2x all-star. I don't think I need to mention what Bonds, Robinson, Musial, Berkman, Williams, and Albert Belle were.
I'm in no way prepared to name him with those guys. However, if he has a Giles or Klesko like career both were pretty good in their day. Having seen these names you sort of see why the cubs were so high on him though. That walk/k rate with his power is a pretty ridiculous combo. Incidentally, Klesko, Giles, Bonds, Williams, Berkman(switch), and Musial were all lefties. I'm honestly not even sure how to narrow down that search to give more realistic names because the only time he's had a sub 10% walk rate was the 5 games in Boise. And the worst rate he's struck out at is the 10 games in Kane for 17.1%. And if we assume he has Rizzo like power you're talking at least .200 ISO. And just know I feel really homer-ish even mentioning him with these names. But, that's what the number say at the moment.
6. Jorge Soler, 22, OF, AA, Tennessee ETA: 2016
Wont be much here that I didn't already bring up in the pre-season look. I believe I mentioned there that it's tough seeing the 65 power rating mlb.com gave him. Maybe not those exact words as I don't think the ratings were out at that point. But I'm sure I mentioned his power rating and numbers didn't match. Similar to Almora, it could be a case of growing into his body. I can buy him more as a 20-25 HR guy but at 65 you're saying him and Schwarber have similar power projections which seems off to me.
Overall, he's probably a decent hitter if he ever stays healthy. Hard to say exactly where he will fall. His walk rate has steadily improved into the 10% range. Given he was 11.1% in AA this year, and 8.9% at A+ last year I think that 10% area is an ok guess. However, 5.6% in the AFL coming off a wrist injury IIRC is disconcerting. K rate has been decent outside again the AFL. Sub-19% in most cases. Average has been all over the place from .270 to .333. His A+ season of .281/.343/.467 seems like a safe bet of what he can do especially given Daytona being a pitching friendly league. So, that plus 20-25 HRs and 10 SB maybe.... if he doesn't pull a hammy walking to the bating circle.
Defensively he looks very solid in RF and the scouting seems to agree. Not sure he's gonna be Ichiro there but should definitely be a plus defender.
Player Comparison: Jason Heyward feels like too much but numbers wise... I don't know. You're talking about a career .257/.350/.433 hitter with 11.5%/19.9% bb/k rate as an excellent defender. Granted he's done that from age 20-24 and Soler is already 22. Maybe a better defensive Jayson Werth? There's apparently not a lot of plus defenders in RF these days. He's not Justin Upton or Rios as he's not quite the power/speed combo. Definitely not Stanton. Jay Bruce with less power and a better average/k rate might be ok. Angel's era Torii Hunter would be a fine comparison too I think.
7. C.J. Edwards, 22, RHP, AA, Tennessee ETA: 2016 or possibly late 2015
There's a lot to love about Edwards though like Soler it's pretty much the same stuff I said prior to the season because he got hurt. The guy flat out strikes people out. His 20 innings in AA where his lowest of his career at 8.71 k/9. At the MLB level 9 k/9 puts you in the 15 starters. His next lowest stint was 11.25. The question is often can people do that without walking players. Generally anything below 3 bb/9 is pretty decent. He's been between 2.74-3.64. Given he's only 22 that's not really bad at all because pitchers are often on a longer time table than hitters. As a reference Pierce Johnson is 23 in AA and Kyle Hendricks is 24 in AAA. So like Almora, he may be a bit young for AA. His ERA and FIP have also been pretty stellar.
The biggest question is does he stay a starter. He's tall enough but at 155 lbs he really needs to fill out.
Player Comparison:Pedro Martinez comes to mind as a 5-11/170 player who was super successful. Pedro had 9.5 k/9 in the minors to go with 3.7 bb/9. Lincecum is another smallish starter at 5-11/170. Cole Hamels is 6-3/195. Patrick Corbin is 6-2/185. Zack Greinke is 6-2/195. Kris Medlen is 5-10/190. Jeremy Hellickson is 6-1/190. Ervin Santana is 6-2/185. Jeff Locke is 6-0/190. Travis Wood is 5-11/175.
Miguel Gonzalez is 6-1/170. Jarrod Parker is 6-1/195. Mike Leake is 5-10/185. Bronson Arroyo is 6-4/195. That accounts for all the sub-200 lb pitchers out of 81 qualified. So that's what 13 out of 81? 16% isn't a ringing endorsement for that sort of body type. And of those only Hamels and Lincecum are within a range of k/9 you would expect out of Edwards(eg 8+).
Those are some what poor comparisons because their more based on his size rather than his numbers. But, given the concern about players his size staying in the rotation I felt it was right. Even if he adds 15 pounds which would be a lot of muscle you're still talking about a pretty slight guy especially at 6-2.Maybe like Pedro it wont matter but even with Pedro you're talking about a guy who did have a lot of injuries in his career.
8. Jen-Ho Tseng, 19, RHP, A, Kane County ETA: 2017
You can make a legitimate argument that he's the cubs best pitching prospect. He's 19 at Kane which is definitely early for that age and yet he's still had a 3.22/2.80 ERA/FIP with 9.12 k/9 and 1.25 bb/9. I read something awhile back that mentioned control in general is the most under rated aspect with regard to pitching. This will come up again when I talk about Hendricks so I'll leave it at that.
Player Comparison: Here's where the fun comes. The numbers many not look spectacular but it's that bb/9 that's the sexy aspect. 16 pitchers had a sub 2 BB/9 in 2013. Of those, if we round anything 7 k/9 or higher you're talking about 9 guys. Cliff Lee(8.97/1.29), David Price(7.28/1.30), Adam Wainwright(8.16/1.30), Matt Harvey(9.64/1.56), Dan Haren(8.01/1.64), Hisashi Iwakuma(7.58/1.72), John Lackey(7.65/1.90), Chris Sale(9.49/1.93), and Clayton Kershaw(8.85/1.98). If you want to be a little more inclusive, Jordan Zimmerman(6.79/1.69), Doug Fister(6.86/1.90), and Hiroki Kuroda(6.71/1.92). Tseng may not get the love he deserves with regard to top 100 lists because 9.12 k/9 while good isn't earth shattering the way someone like Edwards is but he arguably should at least make the top 100 if he continues this over the season
9. Pierce Johnson. 23, RHP, AA, Tennessee ETA: 2016 or late 2015
I think my opinion of Pierce has changed some what since the last set of these. I seem to recall being more amped on him for whatever reason. I likely say a 9ish k/9 and the 2.84 bb/9 in A and was impressed. I probably ignored the 3.88 bb/9 at A+. This year his k/9 has dropped a fair amount and his bb/9 has risen a lot at least in AA at 8.10. At around 9 k/9 and sub 3 bb/9 you can pretty easily see someone as a potential #2. It's possible this is just a bump in the road but it sort of feels like it may be more of a 3/4 starter. Keep in mind at 23 he's probably age appropriate for the leagues he's been in.
Player Comparison: I'm not sure its fair to do these on pitchers in general. But without knowing where his baseline is it's really tough to say. It's pretty fair to say that your K/9 drops around 2 from minors to the majors as the quality of hitting is so much better. So, if we say he's a 7 k/9 3 bb/9 type you're talking about Travis Wood types as well as Yovani Gallardo. Troubling in that you're also talking about Edwin Jackson. With pitching in general these are hard because a lot of pitching is determined by pitch usage which minor leagues have poor reporting on. It's much easier comparing major league players because pitch f/x tracks all sort of pitch data you don't have in the minors.
10. Kyle Hendricks, 24, RHP, AAA, Iowa ETA: 2014
Here's a guy that doesn't get enough love. You can basically take most of what I said about Tseng and apply it here. The one caveat is that Hendricks hasn't had the k/9... until this year. He'd typically been in the 6-7 k/9. This year in AAA he's at 8.18.
Player Comparison:He seems a lot like Doug Fister. I'd argue Tseng may be a better Hendriks and thus in the conversation with the guys I mentioned. Hendricks is going to live in the lessor range like Fister if he ends up making it. However, you could also throw Bronson Arroyo, older Bartolo Colon, Eric Stults and maybe Hiroki Kuroda and Jordan Zimmermann types in there. That being said, if you can get people out and don't walk people that's a ticket to success that Tommy Milone, Kris Medlin, Patrick Crobin, and Jordan Lyles have all used to great effect with the only one of those four ever to make a top 100 list being Lyles at #42 in 2011.
11. Paul Blackburn, 20, RHP, A, Kane County ETA: 2017
I'm guessing I likely said there wasn't enough data on him prior to the season. I've heard some are high on him. The good is he's thrown a lot of strikes having a 2.14 bb/9. That's substantially better than what he did in Boise. However, he looks to be more of a 7 k/9 guy. His ERA's been good at sub 3.50
Player Comparison: You're likely talking 3-5 starter with that sort of K rate unless something improves. Not going to throw out any player here just generic 3-5 starter.
12. Arodys Vizcaino, 23, RHP, AAA Iowa ETA: September 2014
I would absolutely love for him to some how regain his starter status but it appears he's likely a full time bullpen guy now due to injuries. He still has fantastic stuff that made him a high top 100 prospect. 10.00 k/9 at A+ and 10.54 k/9 at AA this season. His control has been a bit spotty but given a 2 year layoff that's not surprising. He also had 1.98 bb/9 in his AA stint which was in line with what he was doing prior to injury.
Player Comparison: If we assume that stellar k/9 and bb/9 you're likely talking one of the best closers in the game. What Koji Uehara did last year wouldn't be out of the question. If they do end up stretching him out again and letting him start it's tough to say. He clearly has top of the rotation stuff and control is more just a question of durability.
13. Dan Vogelbach, 21, 1B, A Daytona ETA: 2016
Similar to Almora he started the season pretty horribly. He's rebounded quicker. Again, likely a case of Daytona just being pitcher friendly. He's hitting .276/.366/.437 with 11.9%/16.9% bb/k rate. Like with Schwarber, that's going to set you up for a good selection of hitters. However, his ISO isn't nearly as high at roughly 160 in A+ and A. MLB.com gave him a 60 rating there prior to the season. So, you're likely talking 25 HR max.
Defense has been a question about him because he's 1B/DH only. I'm guessing fielding% probably isn't the best measure at 1B. But if we use that he's at .990 which is clearly a good thing.
Player Comparison: If we toss on a filter of 10%/18% bb/k rate or better and an ISO off .160 or better and look at 1B we get a number of really good hitters though he's probably not going to hit with the power that a lot of these guys have given his ISO. Kevin Millar could be a fair comparison as a career .274/.358/.452 hitter with 18-25 HRs a season and a similar k/bb rate. There's some other names that appear to be well before my time that might fit but I'm fairly comfortable with the Millar comparison.
14. Jacob Hannemann, 23, OF, A Kane County ETA: 2017
He had almost no data prior to the season so I'm guessing I didn't say much. Since then he's broke out some. He's currently hitting .260/.333/.386 with 5 homers and 28 steals. One minor issue is age. At 23 he's a bit old for Kane County but from my understanding he's mormon and did their missionary stuff which is why he was set back. The speed is a welcome bit given the relatively meager speed overall the cubs have in their system. He also walks at a decent clip of 8.9% and k's under 20%(barely) which is decent.
Defensively, I've read he needs some work but looking at the numbers he doesn't appear totally lost in CF with a .960ish fielding%
Player Comparison: If he turns into a good defense CF you are potentially talking someone like Michael Bourn. However, Bourn's defense in CF from 2009-2012 was basically gold glove caliber. I'm not sure if he won one without looking it up but I'm guess he might based on his UZR stats. So, potentially you might have a lessor version of that.
15. Rob Zastryzny, LHP, A Daytona ETA: 2017
He was likely another guy with not enough info on prior to the season. His ERA has been shit but if you can look past that there's positive signs here. His FIP is 3.53 so it's likely he's had some bad defense behind him. At 9.10 k/9 and 2.28 bb/9 those are potentially top of the rotation numbers. Also being a lefty helps him here as they are tougher to find.
Player Comparison: basically a similar grouping to what Tseng had given his great bb/9. That being said, pitching can be all over the place year to year so while this is definitely encouraging you often just don't know until they reach AA/AAA.
Just missed the cut
Gioskar Amaya, 2B, A, Daytona
There's not a ton to love here. He's honestly a bunch of empty stats. He might hit 10 homers and might steal about 15-20 bags. Positional scarcity helps him a little. .286/.372/.362 in A+ really isn't terrible and is bb/k rate is good. But it's hard to project these type of numbers to a starter especially given the wealth of players ahead of him. He has potentially plus defense apparently so could end up being a decent bench piece.
Player Comparison:I'm guessing bench piece.
Stephen Bruno, 2B, AA, Tennessee
Speaking of wealth of talent ahead of Amaya... All Bruno has done since being drafted is raked. He had a really hot start to the year then fell off a little. He's still hitting .288/.365/.428 after hitting .362/.436/.478 in A+ last year. Perhaps I'm a bit hypocritical saying Amaya is empty stats given Bruno has less power and less speed while walking less and striking out more.
Defensively Bruno appears to at a similar level to Alcantara.
Player Comparison: I've heard people throw out Pedroia comparisons but I think that's a bit of a stretch. Howie Kendrick seems like a similar hitter but Bruno's likely not as good defensively. Probably a bench piece similar to Amaya unless he goes back to hitting .360 like he did in A-/A+ .
Dropping off the list:
Christian Villanueva, 3B, AA, Tennessee
He struggled a little in AAA and was supplanted by Bryant. However since his send down to AA he's hitting .311/.367/.467. And his calling card is his defense. I've said before he's likely to end up being a starter for someone at 3B down the line but probably not the cubs.
Player Comparison:Todd Frazier maybe. Basically he's an example of why Villanueva will likely start in the majors. Similar walk/k rates and is hitting .234/.314/.407 with good defense. Shocking how that keeps people jobs but that's positional scarcity for ya.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, A, Kane County
He got pretty crushed in A+. At 20 he is still young for A+ similar to Almora. And even then his walk/k rate were fine. His .212 BABIP wasn't helping matters. However, without more batted ball data which no one has for minors AFAIK it's hard to say why this was. He might be making bad contact and hitting a ton of fly balls. Or, he might just have been unlucky. It's kind of difficult projecting him as a 3B long term. His power grade long term was 50. So, you're talking less potential power than Almora. There's also questions about his defense. However, I'm not sure his offense plays any better in the corner OF or 1B and they already have an embarrassment of 2B prospects.
Player Comparison:It's more difficult to place him than Villanueva. Perhaps positional scarcity helps him too but there's not a ton of 3B who hit 10-15 HRs without giving you something else major.
