Devil's Advocate: Why Clayton Richard has been "unlucky"

[beckdawg]

Before I dig into this, let me just say I don't particularly like Richard from a statistical stand point and given the chance I'd replace him. With that out of the way, I wanna talk about why the cubs likely are still professing faith in him other than him being their only option. When you talk about pitching I always start with k/9 and bb/9 as it's generally a better indicator of how good a pitcher is than ERA or anything. In Richard's case, it's one of the reasons I'm not a huge fan. Historically he's had a 5.53 k/9 2.98 and bb/9. Put another way that k rate is 10.9%. So, obviously he's not much for a K pitcher and the vast majority of his outs come on balls in play. Last season, Richard was decent with a 3.83/3.58 ERA/FIP. And k/9 and bb/9 rate was largely in that career average range with a 4.68 k/9 and 1.49 bb/9 though obviously is walk rate was down. This season he's at a rather unsurprising 5.00 k/9 and 3.00 bb/9. In other words, he's basically been the same pitcher he's always been.

The second thing I'll usually look at is contact rates. This tells you how the balls are being put in play. Historically he's had 15.7%/53.3%/31.0% soft/med/hard contact rates. Last year, he was 20.5%/54.3%/25.2%. This season? He's at 29.7%/54.1%/16.2%. The take away here is he's actually been dink and dunked quite a bit and people aren't really hitting him hard.

In relation to that, you can talk about BABIP and LOB%. Think most generally get BABIP but for those who don't, it's basically an indication of how "lucky" you are. Generally speaking, MLB average on balls in play is around .300. That can vary from pitcher to pitcher and hitter to hitter but generally that's what you expect out of a ball put in play. Unsurprisingly, Richard has a .297 career BABIP. This season his BABIP is .432. So, not only have the balls hit off him not been particularly hard but they have been hit into positions where defenders weren't. LOB% represents your strand rate. In other words, how often someone on base is left stranded. The point of this is essentially a test for sequencing(i.e. when the hits happen). Typically the MLB average on that is around 73%. Richard himself for his career is 70.0% which given his lack of k's isn't surprising. This season he's at 45.0%

Putting this all together, he's essentially been unlucky in a number of ways. People have been getting on base despite him generating decently weak contact and doing so at an unusually high rate. And when they've been getting on they are scoring at an unusual rate. That's why he possess a 3.34 FIP despite having an 8 ERA. Now as I said I'm not 100% sold on him and would like to upgrade. But there are reasons to believe he'll be better going forward.

 

[A.C. Milan]

I've noticed he has been unlucky when that groundball found the hole in his last outing, but yes, his K/9 is way too low, a bullpen arm that usually comes in with men on bases should have an higher one, of course i hope he'll be better but he has to be, we can't live with only Wood as a reliable lefty

 

[ChiSoxCity]

Luck has nothing to do with his lack of talent. Clayton Richard is the worst pitcher in baseball.


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[Diehardfan]

Doesn't really make a lot of difference how things transpire. When you're a left handed reliever and left handed hitters are hitting .435 off you....a DFA is probably right around the corner.

 

[beckdawg]

Don't know if its "luck"...it probably has more to do with the comparison of Richard's 9 innings of work in 2016 to the 815.2 innings of work in the rest of his career. Considering Richard's recent history, there is a good chance that he just kind of sucks.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's great. But when you have an 8 ERA and a low 3 FIP and the numbers I mention look like they do, the chances are something funky is going on. Even if the numbers correct I assume he's a below average reliever. All I'm saying is if people are wondering why the cubs haven't immediately DFA'd him a la Coke last year this is probably the reason

 

[chibears55]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's great. But when you have an 8 ERA and a low 3 FIP and the numbers I mention look like they do, the chances are something funky is going on. Even if the numbers correct I assume he's a below average reliever. All I'm saying is if people are wondering why the cubs haven't immediately DFA'd him a la Coke last year this is probably the reason

My guess is the reason is besides wood they have no one else to turn to now.
If you want to give management a negative mark for offseason, you can give them one for not having LH relievers depth.

If the reason is what you're saying, then he would be used more instead of just in blowouts or when wood needs a breather game.

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[Diehardfan]

They thought they had depth when they brought in Brothers....it probably surprised them when he was a bust in ST.

 

[CSF77]

im questioning the luck issue. Seems he is not locating his pitches to force these hitters to hit into the D alignment. .143 BABIP over avg is not a small amount that can be put into a luck thing. Bad luck means a guy popped up just out of reach or fell infront of a OF. Not .143 over avg. that says he is very hittable and is not fooling guys. The weaker contact most likely goes into his softer stuff vs fooling guys.

 

[beckdawg]

The weaker contact most likely goes into his softer stuff vs fooling guys.

Contact rate isn't about fooling people. Jake Arreita has amazing stuff but he consistently generates weak contact largely because he's able to generate ground balls rather than fly balls. This is the same case with Hendricks and why despite having limited stuff he's been one of the better pitchers in the league despite his debut. As this pertains to Richard, he generates a lot of weak contact and like Arrieta/Hendricks he has a high ground ball rate(66.7%). At that point he's entirely dependent on the players around him. He has a line drive rate of 16.7% this year. Arrieta has 19.5% and Hendricks has 17.6% by comparison.

The take away from all of that is that batters aren't squaring him up and hitting gappers into the alley. He's given up 1 double this year and 0 3B/HRs. This is pretty much a text book case for someone who's been killed by a poor sample. Frankly, that sort of profile is exactly what you want out of a pitcher because typically it's very hard for someone who gets a single to score. Typically, 70%+ of base runners are stranded and MLB average is something like .317-ish for OBP meaning you're typically going to get 1 base runner ever 3 batters or there abouts.

Like I said before, Richard is far from an ideal pitcher but to suggest he hasn't had some bad luck to me is naive. A 45.0% strand rate will not hold. A .432 BABIP will not hold. Where Richard fails is largely in that once someone is on with few outs he's not a very useful pitcher. Someone like Rondon or Strop can get away with allowing a baserunner because they can strike guys out. This is why I've suggested I'm not a huge fan of Richard overall. At that point for Richard, he has to rely on the defense turning a double play because ~83% of his PAs end with a ball in play.

 

[CSF77]

Contact rate isn't about fooling people. Jake Arreita has amazing stuff but he consistently generates weak contact largely because he's able to generate ground balls rather than fly balls. This is the same case with Hendricks and why despite having limited stuff he's been one of the better pitchers in the league despite his debut. As this pertains to Richard, he generates a lot of weak contact and like Arrieta/Hendricks he has a high ground ball rate(66.7%). At that point he's entirely dependent on the players around him. He has a line drive rate of 16.7% this year. Arrieta has 19.5% and Hendricks has 17.6% by comparison.

The take away from all of that is that batters aren't squaring him up and hitting gappers into the alley. He's given up 1 double this year and 0 3B/HRs. This is pretty much a text book case for someone who's been killed by a poor sample. Frankly, that sort of profile is exactly what you want out of a pitcher because typically it's very hard for someone who gets a single to score. Typically, 70%+ of base runners are stranded and MLB average is something like .317-ish for OBP meaning you're typically going to get 1 base runner ever 3 batters or there abouts.

Like I said before, Richard is far from an ideal pitcher but to suggest he hasn't had some bad luck to me is naive. A 45.0% strand rate will not hold. A .432 BABIP will not hold. Where Richard fails is largely in that once someone is on with few outs he's not a very useful pitcher. Someone like Rondon or Strop can get away with allowing a baserunner because they can strike guys out. This is why I've suggested I'm not a huge fan of Richard overall. At that point for Richard, he has to rely on the defense turning a double play because ~83% of his PAs end with a ball in play.

I get that but it doesn't answer why the same D doesn't have issues with the rest of the staff. seems a little off to me.

 

[beckdawg]

I get that but it doesn't answer why the same D doesn't have issues with the rest of the staff. seems a little off to me.

It's not that the defense has issues. The entire point of BABIP is that balls in play largely aren't a skill based thing. Defenders can't be literally every where and in the case of Richard, they are hitting it where defenders aren't. To explain this a bit further, Miguel Cabrera is largely the best hitter of the past generation. He's got a career .348 BABIP compared to the league average of ~.300. And the reason the best players have higher BABIPs(over a large sample that is) is usually one of two things. Either the hitter is fast and thus can beat out ground balls or the hitter makes consistent hard contact.

Richard isn't giving up hard contact. Whether or not he's faced an abnormal number of speedy players I can't say. Regardless, the numbers suggest the types of hits Richard is getting against him are largely ground balls(66% ground ball rate IIRC) that are getting through the infield. Typically speaking, the only way that consistently happens is balls that are smoked at defenders but as mentioned, Richard's contact rate suggest he's not giving up hard hit balls. That means it's entirely likely that a regression(good one) will happen.

 

[85Bears]

I respect everyone's opinions here, especially beckdawg, and maybe this is me being a meatball but Richards has to go. I groaned when I saw him coming into the game last night, then what does he do? Walks somebody and gives up a hit that scores a run without recording an out.

Bye Felicia...

 

[beckdawg]

I respect everyone's opinions here, especially beckdawg, and maybe this is me being a meatball but Richards has to go. I groaned when I saw him coming into the game last night, then what does he do? Walks somebody and gives up a hit that scores a run without recording an out.

Bye Felicia...

Don't get me wrong here, I'm not really suggesting it's great that the cubs keep Richard going forward. I think they should and will upgrade from him at some point. All I'm saying is that he has been unlucky. Ultimately, I prefer higher K/9 guys out of the bullpen. Ideally you get high K/9 and low BB/9 but generally if someone is good enough to do that they are starting. Richard is someone who pitches to contact hopes for ground balls. This season has shown how that can hurt you though generally speaking ground balls tend to be good for pitchers as it's hard to get hurt on them but it does happen.

The biggest problem the cubs have is they don't have a ton of quality lefties in their minors which is why Richard is here to begin with. Hopefully Jack Leathersich can rebound quickly from his TJS and be ready for the second half because he does have some ridiculous k/9 numbers. Over all his time in the minors he has a 15.2 k/9. His BB/9 is kind of iffy even for a reliever at 4.9 but he could end up being an impact. He had his TJS in late july last year so probably wouldn't see him til august at the earliest.

 

[CSF77]

My meaning is a pitcher can induce a hitter to pull or hit to the opposite field by pitching to a location. He has been getting soft contact on the ground that is getting through more than not. Just tells me that he is not in sync with the D. Or his location is off.

He is very hittable for sure and they would be better off getting a RH pitcher who has good numbers vs lefties vs waiting around for a lefty to just appear

 

[cubsmann]

Luck has nothing to do with his lack of talent. Clayton Richard is the worst pitcher in baseball.


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Agreed. Every time I see the guy getting loose Im thinking don't put that motherfucker in the game!!!