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15. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Analysis: Cutler was an elite quarterback in 2008 when he played for the Broncos, but 26 interceptions for Chicago in 2009 moved him out of my top group. With Mike Martz calling the plays, Cutler should regain his 4,000-yard form and re-emerge as the elite quarterback the Bears thought they acquired in a trade with Denver.
Chance of being elite: 95 percent
From Peyton Manning to Jake Delhomme, ESPN's John Clayton ranks the NFL's starting QBs - ESPN