beckdawg
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Oct 31, 2012
- Posts:
- 11,750
- Liked Posts:
- 3,741
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/looking-for-bias-in-top-100-prospect-lists/
Reading through this article was pretty interesting. And it got me thinking about pitching in the cubs minor league system so I thought I'd take a look. One of the things the article mentioned was scouts tend to underrate control and overrate pure stuff.
CJ Edwards - He's kind of the obvious choice for best arm in their system. His K/9 and BB/9 are ridiculously good(12.91/2.74 at A+). Just to give some context Strasburg had around 12 k/9 and 2.5 bb/9 in the minor league numbers I could find from him. Kershaw was 12.39/4.62 in his largest A stint. Lincecum with a similar body size was around 13/3. Looking through the various minor leagues there's not many guys who throw for more than 10 k/9. In all levels of A ball with 90+ IP and under 23 there were 11 pitchers who had 10+ k/9 5 of which who had sub 4 BB/9 and 6 over that. Those players were Vincent Velasquez(21 A 10.06/2.70), Steven Matz(22 A 10.24/3.22), Luis Cruz(22 A+ 10.24/3.18), C.J. Edwards(21 A 11.76/3.28), Lucas Sims(19 A 10.34/3.55), Francellis Montas(20 A 10.30/4.05), Lance Mccullers(19 A 10.06/4.21), Martin Agosta(22 A 10.70/4.22), Nick Lee(22 A 10.09/4.25), Henry Owens(20 A+ 10.58/4.56), and Tyler Glasnow(19 A 13.26/4.93). In AA there were 7 pitchers with 90+ IP and 10 k/9 those being Marcus Stroman(22 AA 10.40/2.18), Sean Nolin(23 AA 10.00/2.43), Ian Thomas(26 AA 10.61/3.19), Nathan Karns(25 AA 10.52/3.26), Neil Ramirez(24 AA 11.10/3.67), Matt Barnes(23 AA 11.25/3.83), and Jesse Biddle(21 AA 10.02/5.33). So, it should be very interesting to see if Edwards can maintain that level presumably in AA next year. If he does he'll definitely be considered by many as a top 50 type prospect. If he makes it as a starter, he has a real chance to be one of the better K pitchers in the league.
Pierce Johnson - In A ball had 69 IP 9.56/2.84 and and 48 IP in A+ with 9.25/3.88. I'd like to see his command improve. If you're projecting those type of numbers toward the MLB you're looking more at a 6-7 k/9 type with a 3+ bb/9. There aren't many of those types who succeed. For example, Jackson had 6.93/3.03 last year. Jorge de la Rosa did well with 6.01/3.33 but there's not many guys that survive at 3+ bb/9. Wood might be a good comparison to what he can be. Wood had 6.48/2.97 last year. But, I'd really like to see Johnson get his walks into the 2.5 range. That being said, I'd be worried about his chances of slotting into the middle of the rotation until his control improves.
Paul Blackburn - He's still difficult to get a read on as he was just 19. In R he was 5.66/3.05 in 20 IP. In 46 IP in A- he was 7.43/5.67. His ERA was fine at both though. Really needs to show more before we judge.
Arodys Vizcaino - Durability is the obvious concern. In his first two pro years he only pitched 80 innings each year. His thirds year in 2011 he pitched over 100 and blew out his elbow. The ability is fairly clear. He's shown the ability to strike out 8 per 9 at every level. Control could be better but being able to strike out at the rate he has off sets that some similar to Edwards. At this point, he's probably a quality arm for the bullpen until he can prove he has more durability.
Kyle Hendricks - Hendricks is actually mentioned in the article as being likely underrated. He's been under 2 BB/9 throughout his minor league career. Doug Fister might be a good comparison. Fister had 6.86/1.90 last year. Hendricks was at 7.20/1.85 last year in AA over 126 IP and 6.08/1.80 over 40 IP in AAA. But typically pitchers with that kind of control do well. Hiroki Kuroda, John Lackey, Eric Stults, Hisashi Iwakuma, Jordan Zimmermann, Kyle Lohse, Bronson Arroyo, and Bartolo Colon are guys who have similar k/9 and bb/9 with qualified IP. Assuming he stays reiliable, and there's no reason to think he wont, he may be better than we think. It's entirely possibly he ends up fringe #2 like Fister.
Alberto Cabrera - He clearly has good stuff striking out over 8 per 9 between AA/AAA last year. However, I don't see him being more than a bullpen arm unless he figures out issues with control. It was decent in AA last year at 3.12 over 112 IP but throughout the rest of his career he's been really inconsistent with his control jumping from 1.86 BB/9 to over 5 in various small samples.
Rob Zastryzny - fangraphs only had him pitching 23 IP last year. Clearly he's in the wait and see category.
Duane Underwood - fangraphs only has 63 IP over the past 2 years. Wait and see.
Dillon Maples - He's appeared to have decent stuff striking out 8 per 9 in A ball but his command has been terrible. He's issued 65 bb/HBP in 77 IP. He's probably a long way off if he ever makes it.
Neil Ramirez - He's pretty similar to Cabrera but I honestly think he's got a better chance of being a starter because he's been more consistent. His command will be an issue he needs to improve though. I'm not sure he'll ever be great with command but if he can get to the 3 bb/9 range he's got a chance because his stuff is pretty good. For example, Darvish last year had 11.89/3.43. Last year in AA Ramirez was 11.10/3.67. He's probably more of a 8-9 k/9 guy in the MLB but even at that rate that puts him close to the likes of Gio Gonzalez, Justin Masterson, Ian Kennedy, C.J. Wilson, Tim Lincecum, and Shark. Either way, I think he's probably underrated among fans.
Corey Black - Many were unhappy with him as the return for Soriano but there is some upside here. In A+ last year he had 9.58/4.90 with the yanks and 10.08/3.60 with the cubs. Clearly the command is an issue but if you look back at the number of 10+ k/9 guys I listed for Edwards you can see that kind of K potential isn't common. Another positive sign was his bb/9 the previous year was 2.1 and after coming over to the cubs it obviously dropped some. It's still too early to say if he's as inconsistent as Cabrera is. I'm not going to jump to conclusions on him but if he gets his bb/9 under 3 he's got a shot to be a legit prospect with that k rate. MLB pitchers with a k/9 of 8+ and a bb/9 under 3 is a pretty high profile list.
Ivan Pineyro - Might be a younger version of Hendricks. He's shown pretty good command. He had 8.86/2.32 with that Nats in A ball over 66 IP and 7.60/1.80 with the cubs in A+. He's likely underrated for the same reasons Hendricks is. He also might have a slightly higher top end because he's struck more guys out than Hendricks did at the lower levels.
Daury Torrez - He's still pretty far away from the majors but he's got pretty insane control. He has 14 walks in 164 IP in R ball over 3 seasons. He only pitched 49 innings last year in R ball as a 20 year old. But, he had 9.00/0.92 k/9 and bb/9. He's someone to keep an eye on next year because if that k/9 is legit he could quickly rise up prospect lists with that sort of command. It's Cliff Lee like command.
Dallas Beeler - I'm not seeing much here. He looks like a AAA fill in type. In 2012 he had 4.63/3.18 in AA in 136 IP. Last year in AA he had 5.76/2.80 in 54.2 IP.
Matt Loosen - He'd be more interesting if he were 3 years younger. At 24 he posted 8.18/6.55 in 66 IP in AA. In 2012 he had 8.79/3.67 in A+ which would be interesting if like I said he had been 20 or 21. He's probably more of a 4A type but if he had a breakthrough season next year he might turn into something.
Eric Jokisch - He's mildly interesting. He's been a 7-8 K/9 type throughout his minor league career. When he was 23 last year in AA he posted 7.67/3.02 though he's shown better control the previous few years. He might have 4th or 5th starter upside especially when you consider he's a lefty.
Erick Leal - He's a long way off but he's interesting. In 122 IP over the past two years as an 18 and 19 year old in R ball he had 8.75/1.48 and 9.62/1.48 k/9 and bb/9.
James Pugliese - He's also interesting. He's similar to Pineyro but has better command with slightly lower k/9.
Yao-Lin Wang - Might be a bit old but in A+ last year as a 22 year old he had 8.11/3.68 k/9 and bb/9. He's shown the ability to strike out people though the command leaves something to be desired.
Summary
I think Edwards and Hendricks are two very interesting options in the short term though given they were the headliners in the Garza/Dempster deals that's not surprising. Neil Ramirez is another name I'll be watching. Pierce Johnson is obviously a highly rated guy but personally I think him and Ramirez have similar upsides. Those are all the guys I'd be counting on in the near term. In the more distant term, Black, Pineyro, Torrez, Pugliese, and Leal all appear to have varying levels of potential to be rotation starters.
Reading through this article was pretty interesting. And it got me thinking about pitching in the cubs minor league system so I thought I'd take a look. One of the things the article mentioned was scouts tend to underrate control and overrate pure stuff.
CJ Edwards - He's kind of the obvious choice for best arm in their system. His K/9 and BB/9 are ridiculously good(12.91/2.74 at A+). Just to give some context Strasburg had around 12 k/9 and 2.5 bb/9 in the minor league numbers I could find from him. Kershaw was 12.39/4.62 in his largest A stint. Lincecum with a similar body size was around 13/3. Looking through the various minor leagues there's not many guys who throw for more than 10 k/9. In all levels of A ball with 90+ IP and under 23 there were 11 pitchers who had 10+ k/9 5 of which who had sub 4 BB/9 and 6 over that. Those players were Vincent Velasquez(21 A 10.06/2.70), Steven Matz(22 A 10.24/3.22), Luis Cruz(22 A+ 10.24/3.18), C.J. Edwards(21 A 11.76/3.28), Lucas Sims(19 A 10.34/3.55), Francellis Montas(20 A 10.30/4.05), Lance Mccullers(19 A 10.06/4.21), Martin Agosta(22 A 10.70/4.22), Nick Lee(22 A 10.09/4.25), Henry Owens(20 A+ 10.58/4.56), and Tyler Glasnow(19 A 13.26/4.93). In AA there were 7 pitchers with 90+ IP and 10 k/9 those being Marcus Stroman(22 AA 10.40/2.18), Sean Nolin(23 AA 10.00/2.43), Ian Thomas(26 AA 10.61/3.19), Nathan Karns(25 AA 10.52/3.26), Neil Ramirez(24 AA 11.10/3.67), Matt Barnes(23 AA 11.25/3.83), and Jesse Biddle(21 AA 10.02/5.33). So, it should be very interesting to see if Edwards can maintain that level presumably in AA next year. If he does he'll definitely be considered by many as a top 50 type prospect. If he makes it as a starter, he has a real chance to be one of the better K pitchers in the league.
Pierce Johnson - In A ball had 69 IP 9.56/2.84 and and 48 IP in A+ with 9.25/3.88. I'd like to see his command improve. If you're projecting those type of numbers toward the MLB you're looking more at a 6-7 k/9 type with a 3+ bb/9. There aren't many of those types who succeed. For example, Jackson had 6.93/3.03 last year. Jorge de la Rosa did well with 6.01/3.33 but there's not many guys that survive at 3+ bb/9. Wood might be a good comparison to what he can be. Wood had 6.48/2.97 last year. But, I'd really like to see Johnson get his walks into the 2.5 range. That being said, I'd be worried about his chances of slotting into the middle of the rotation until his control improves.
Paul Blackburn - He's still difficult to get a read on as he was just 19. In R he was 5.66/3.05 in 20 IP. In 46 IP in A- he was 7.43/5.67. His ERA was fine at both though. Really needs to show more before we judge.
Arodys Vizcaino - Durability is the obvious concern. In his first two pro years he only pitched 80 innings each year. His thirds year in 2011 he pitched over 100 and blew out his elbow. The ability is fairly clear. He's shown the ability to strike out 8 per 9 at every level. Control could be better but being able to strike out at the rate he has off sets that some similar to Edwards. At this point, he's probably a quality arm for the bullpen until he can prove he has more durability.
Kyle Hendricks - Hendricks is actually mentioned in the article as being likely underrated. He's been under 2 BB/9 throughout his minor league career. Doug Fister might be a good comparison. Fister had 6.86/1.90 last year. Hendricks was at 7.20/1.85 last year in AA over 126 IP and 6.08/1.80 over 40 IP in AAA. But typically pitchers with that kind of control do well. Hiroki Kuroda, John Lackey, Eric Stults, Hisashi Iwakuma, Jordan Zimmermann, Kyle Lohse, Bronson Arroyo, and Bartolo Colon are guys who have similar k/9 and bb/9 with qualified IP. Assuming he stays reiliable, and there's no reason to think he wont, he may be better than we think. It's entirely possibly he ends up fringe #2 like Fister.
Alberto Cabrera - He clearly has good stuff striking out over 8 per 9 between AA/AAA last year. However, I don't see him being more than a bullpen arm unless he figures out issues with control. It was decent in AA last year at 3.12 over 112 IP but throughout the rest of his career he's been really inconsistent with his control jumping from 1.86 BB/9 to over 5 in various small samples.
Rob Zastryzny - fangraphs only had him pitching 23 IP last year. Clearly he's in the wait and see category.
Duane Underwood - fangraphs only has 63 IP over the past 2 years. Wait and see.
Dillon Maples - He's appeared to have decent stuff striking out 8 per 9 in A ball but his command has been terrible. He's issued 65 bb/HBP in 77 IP. He's probably a long way off if he ever makes it.
Neil Ramirez - He's pretty similar to Cabrera but I honestly think he's got a better chance of being a starter because he's been more consistent. His command will be an issue he needs to improve though. I'm not sure he'll ever be great with command but if he can get to the 3 bb/9 range he's got a chance because his stuff is pretty good. For example, Darvish last year had 11.89/3.43. Last year in AA Ramirez was 11.10/3.67. He's probably more of a 8-9 k/9 guy in the MLB but even at that rate that puts him close to the likes of Gio Gonzalez, Justin Masterson, Ian Kennedy, C.J. Wilson, Tim Lincecum, and Shark. Either way, I think he's probably underrated among fans.
Corey Black - Many were unhappy with him as the return for Soriano but there is some upside here. In A+ last year he had 9.58/4.90 with the yanks and 10.08/3.60 with the cubs. Clearly the command is an issue but if you look back at the number of 10+ k/9 guys I listed for Edwards you can see that kind of K potential isn't common. Another positive sign was his bb/9 the previous year was 2.1 and after coming over to the cubs it obviously dropped some. It's still too early to say if he's as inconsistent as Cabrera is. I'm not going to jump to conclusions on him but if he gets his bb/9 under 3 he's got a shot to be a legit prospect with that k rate. MLB pitchers with a k/9 of 8+ and a bb/9 under 3 is a pretty high profile list.
Ivan Pineyro - Might be a younger version of Hendricks. He's shown pretty good command. He had 8.86/2.32 with that Nats in A ball over 66 IP and 7.60/1.80 with the cubs in A+. He's likely underrated for the same reasons Hendricks is. He also might have a slightly higher top end because he's struck more guys out than Hendricks did at the lower levels.
Daury Torrez - He's still pretty far away from the majors but he's got pretty insane control. He has 14 walks in 164 IP in R ball over 3 seasons. He only pitched 49 innings last year in R ball as a 20 year old. But, he had 9.00/0.92 k/9 and bb/9. He's someone to keep an eye on next year because if that k/9 is legit he could quickly rise up prospect lists with that sort of command. It's Cliff Lee like command.
Dallas Beeler - I'm not seeing much here. He looks like a AAA fill in type. In 2012 he had 4.63/3.18 in AA in 136 IP. Last year in AA he had 5.76/2.80 in 54.2 IP.
Matt Loosen - He'd be more interesting if he were 3 years younger. At 24 he posted 8.18/6.55 in 66 IP in AA. In 2012 he had 8.79/3.67 in A+ which would be interesting if like I said he had been 20 or 21. He's probably more of a 4A type but if he had a breakthrough season next year he might turn into something.
Eric Jokisch - He's mildly interesting. He's been a 7-8 K/9 type throughout his minor league career. When he was 23 last year in AA he posted 7.67/3.02 though he's shown better control the previous few years. He might have 4th or 5th starter upside especially when you consider he's a lefty.
Erick Leal - He's a long way off but he's interesting. In 122 IP over the past two years as an 18 and 19 year old in R ball he had 8.75/1.48 and 9.62/1.48 k/9 and bb/9.
James Pugliese - He's also interesting. He's similar to Pineyro but has better command with slightly lower k/9.
Yao-Lin Wang - Might be a bit old but in A+ last year as a 22 year old he had 8.11/3.68 k/9 and bb/9. He's shown the ability to strike out people though the command leaves something to be desired.
Summary
I think Edwards and Hendricks are two very interesting options in the short term though given they were the headliners in the Garza/Dempster deals that's not surprising. Neil Ramirez is another name I'll be watching. Pierce Johnson is obviously a highly rated guy but personally I think him and Ramirez have similar upsides. Those are all the guys I'd be counting on in the near term. In the more distant term, Black, Pineyro, Torrez, Pugliese, and Leal all appear to have varying levels of potential to be rotation starters.
