fangraphs is doing their top 50 trade value

[beckdawg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-50-41/

#50: Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago
Controlled Through: 2020
Guaranteed Dollars: $18 million
2016 ZIPS WAR: +2.4
Five year ZIPS WAR: +12.6
Last Year: Unranked
Soler’s first season as the Cubs starting right fielder hasn’t gone that well, with injuries and a surprisingly low power output limiting him to more potential than performance. But Soler remains one of the most intriguing young power hitters in the game, and a few hundred poor at-bats doesn’t wipe away the tools and the minor league performance. He’s still just 23, and while his contact problems might keep him from ever becoming an elite player, he looks like a quality above average regular for the foreseeable future. And he possesses the skillset that teams will overpay to acquire, as young middle-of-the-order hitters are just not really available on the market anymore.

Soler is one of the guys who can opt into arbitration, so he will probably make more than $18 million over the next five seasons, but even with a couple of arbitration raises, he’s still going to be a significant bargain. The Cubs have a ton of premium pieces, so it’s easy to overlook Soler in the crowd, but he’d be the best young talent on most clubs in baseball.

Persumably they will have more but we're just looking at 41-50 in this first article.

 

[brett05]

Reminds me of this one from grantland
http://grantland.com/features/2014-mlb-trade-value-rankings-part-1/

 

[beckdawg]

#32: Addison Russell, 2B, Chicago
Controlled Through: 2021
Guaranteed Dollars: None
2016 ZIPS WAR: +2.8
Five year ZIPS WAR: +22.0
Last Year: Unranked
Obviously, the fact that Russell was traded as part of a package a year ago — for 1 1/2 seasons of Jeff Samardzija and half a season of Jason Hammel — is going to make this ranking (and this whole series) somewhat controversial, no matter where I put Russell on the list. On the one hand, he was traded for the kinds of short-term upgrades that aren’t included in this series, so perhaps Russell is evidence that I’m overrating youth long-term value relative to short-term upgrades. On the other hand, it’s an n of 1, and the general consensus seems to be that the A’s shouldn’t have made that trade in the first place. Does the A’s decision a year ago mean that Russell doesn’t actually have this much trade value, or did the A’s overpay for Samardzija and Hammel last summer?

By putting Russell this high, I’m placing myself pretty firmly in the latter camp, and I bet if we could slip Billy Beane some truth serum, he’d say he’d like to have that one back. I might not be quite as high on Russell as ZIPS is — seriously, those are some bullish forecasts — but six years of a quality middle infielder with significant offensive potential is a scarce asset, and I’d bet the Cubs would demand a much larger haul to get him off their roster at this point. Even if Russell is more of a good player than a star in the making — his contact problems are legitimately concerning for a guy who isn’t likely to be a big time power hitter — he’s still a plenty valuable piece, especially with a few league minimum years still to come. And if he’s the potential superstar that ZIPS is forecasting, then this is too conservative a ranking, and Russell should actually be 10 or 20 spots higher.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-40-to-31/

 

[brett05]

I'd take Altuve, Ventrua, Wacha, Fernandez, Qintana, Keuchel, Kipnis, Buxton all ahead of Addison Russell. I think everyone of those players are more valuable straight up than Russell.

 

[beckdawg]

I'd take Altuve, Ventrua, Wacha, Fernandez, Qintana, Keuchel, Kipnis, Buxton all ahead of Addison Russell. I think everyone of those players are more valuable straight up than Russell.

Lot of it has to do with perceived future value and team control. Just as a for example, Altuve has 4 years left at 3.5, 4.5, 6 and 6.5 the last two being options. After that he likely gets hella paid. Russell on the other hand has the better part of 6.5 years. Now obviously 6.5 years means nothing if he doesn't perform but again you're sort of guessing what he will be at this point. Also, Altuve is a hard 2B vs Russell still likely to play SS which again is a bigger value.

As for the rest of the guys mentioned, you can quibble over some of them rightly. Buxton being that low seemed strange to me given his potential toolset. As for the pitchers, pitching is scary. You generally take the position player over the pitcher all things being equal. I believe both Wacha and Fernandez have had major arm injuries already. Not sure about the rest.

 

[brett05]

Lot of it has to do with perceived future value and team control. Just as a for example, Altuve has 4 years left at 3.5, 4.5, 6 and 6.5 the last two being options. After that he likely gets hella paid. Russell on the other hand has the better part of 6.5 years. Now obviously 6.5 years means nothing if he doesn't perform but again you're sort of guessing what he will be at this point. Also, Altuve is a hard 2B vs Russell still likely to play SS which again is a bigger value.

As for the rest of the guys mentioned, you can quibble over some of them rightly. Buxton being that low seemed strange to me given his potential toolset. As for the pitchers, pitching is scary. You generally take the position player over the pitcher all things being equal. I believe both Wacha and Fernandez have had major arm injuries already. Not sure about the rest.

Oh I know it takes all things into it. These polls always do.

And I'd still take everyone of those guys ahead of Russell. Especially the pitching. It's not even close. When it's close I can see taking the position player, but in this case it's not even close. And I am a Russell guy. Russell has a ways to go to be cheap and good. Right now he's just cheap. The pitchers are all cheap and good.

I see Bryant making it, but not sure on Rizzo just because he plays 1b. For the Sox it's Sale. Abreu I wouldn't for it's first base, though his contract is super affordable.

 

[JZsportsfan]

Bryant and Rizzo will be on here

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-30-to-21/

No cubs in 21-30

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs didn't have anyone in http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-20-to-11/

Here's the top 10 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-top-10/

#4: Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago
Controlled Through: 2021
Guaranteed Dollars: None
2016 ZIPS WAR: +4.4
Five year ZIPS WAR: +23.0
Last Year: #29
A friend in the game — who has seen plenty of Bryant this year — told me a month ago that his comparison for Bryant was Mike Schmidt. While expecting him to match the career of the best third baseman of all-time is probably unfair, Bryant is clearly a pretty special talent, as he’s on track to put up a +5.5 WAR rookie season despite spending the first couple of weeks in the minors. And that’s without hitting for a ton of power, which was supposed to be his calling card. If you add a bit of a power spike to the surprisingly strong defense and baserunning he’s shown early on, you have a perennial MVP candidate.

But, there is one little hiccup; Bryant swings and misses a lot, and the comments I made about Joc Pederson apply a bit here too. And that’s likely one of the reasons why ZIPS seems relatively conservative about his future growth, thinking Bryant is already maxing out his skills, because it’s just really difficult to be consistently better than a +5 WAR player while striking out 30% of the time. In fact, from a statistical perspective, Bryant and Pederson aren’t all that different, though I don’t know anyone in the game who would take Pederson if given a choice between the two.

As long as he hits for power and draws walks, Bryant will be fine, even with the strikeouts. But the contact issues do seem to potentially put a bit of a lid on his ceiling. Overall, he profiles as a something like a healthy version of Giancarlo Stanton — with a little less power but a little more value in other parts of the game — which gives him one of the highest floors of any player with a half season of big league experience you could imagine.

So while Bryant might have a little less best-player-in-baseball potential than some of the others in this area of the series, he’s a relatively safe bet to be a top 20 player, especially since it looks like he might be able to stick at third for a while. And it’s probably worth noting that Mike Schmidt had a serious strikeout problem at age-23, but then fixed it on his way to a +10 WAR season at age-24. If my friend’s aggressive comparison is right, Bryant might very well be number one on this list next year, and all my comments about a limit on his upside will look quite silly.

#7: Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago
Controlled Through: 2021
Guaranteed Dollars: $34 million
2016 ZIPS WAR: +4.7
Five year ZIPS WAR: +22.6
Last Year: #12
Rizzo’s breakout came a year ago when he converted a bunch of doubles into home runs, and turned into one of the game’s best first baseman in the process. To follow that act this year, he’s decided to just stop striking out and start stealing bases, taking his game up even another level, and now he’s just one of the best players in all of baseball. Being a first baseman limits his upside a little bit compared to guys who can play more demanding positions, but Rizzo’s even a plus defender at first base, so he’s a star with no real flaw.

And, of course, the Cubs locked him up pre-breakout, so they’ve got him at a massive discount. The $34 million in guarantees covers the next four seasons, but then they have two team options at $14.5 million each, but they only add a marginal $25 million to the total because the Cubs almost certainly won’t be paying the buyouts on those years. If those options are picked up, Rizzo will cost $59 million over the next six years; if he were a free agent this winter and teams were limited to six years offers, he’d probably still be pushing $200 million, so yeah, this is a pretty good deal for the Cubs.