Five Cubs in Mayo's Top 100, but his list sucks

[Jntg4]

Linking to BN for everything to be together and for analysis
http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/...s-the-first-2012-post-season-prospects-lists/

 

[Rice Cube]

Which part of the link don't you agree with? This is possibly blog-worthy

 

[Jntg4]

Which part of the link don't you agree with? This is possibly blog-worthy

I agree with a lot of BN's analysis, but the list itself is terrible.

Baez - agree
Almora - Have Soler over him but can see it either way
Jackson - NOT better than Vizcaino or Soler
Vizcaino - agree with rank
Soler - Should be ahead of Vizcaino and Jackson at the very least, maybe Almora
Szczur - Probably too high at this point
McNutt - Nowhere close to a Top 10 anymore, especially after conversion to reliever
Lake - Significantly overrated
Johnson - Not sure I'd argue this
Vitters - Too low, don't see him doing much at MLB level, but definitely ahead of McNutt, and Lake at the very least
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No longer going in order
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Vogelbach - Way too low for a guy with that kind of offensive potential
Candelario - Way too low
Amaya - Probably too low
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People who definitely should have been on top 20 list
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Christian Villanueva
Juan Carlos Paniagua
Arismendy Alcantara
Ronald Torreyes
Duane Underwood
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Mayo shouldn't have a job

 

[Jntg4]

Additionally, how low he had Soler and Almora on the Top 100 is laughable in and of itself

 

[dabynsky]

Vogelbach isn't going to get any love until he puts up serious numbers at a higher level since he is at best a 1B only prospect. I love Vogelbach, at the time I was more excited about the Vogelbach pick than Baez (shows how much I know), but he is a one tool prospect at this point in time. Until he puts up numbers in at least Daytona if not TN then I am not getting too excited about the guy.

Lake is the definition of high risk/high reward. The odds of BJax being a superstar are really low, but I think BJax is going to have a job for a long time given his D, speed and pop. Lake on the other hand has more of a chance of turning into a stud player, but also could never make it. These types of lists all depend on how much guys value ceiling compared to floor.

 

[Jntg4]

Vogelbach isn't going to get any love until he puts up serious numbers at a higher level since he is at best a 1B only prospect. I love Vogelbach, at the time I was more excited about the Vogelbach pick than Baez (shows how much I know), but he is a one tool prospect at this point in time. Until he puts up numbers in at least Daytona if not TN then I am not getting too excited about the guy.

Lake is the definition of high risk/high reward. The odds of BJax being a superstar are really low, but I think BJax is going to have a job for a long time given his D, speed and pop. Lake on the other hand has more of a chance of turning into a stud player, but also could never make it. These types of lists all depend on how much guys value ceiling compared to floor.

Lakes ceiling is below average second baseman, he is way overhyped

 

[dabynsky]

Lakes ceiling is below average second baseman, he is way overhyped

His ceiling is far higher, but the odds of him being better than a below average second baseman is very low.

 

[Jntg4]

His ceiling is far higher, but the odds of him being better than a below average second baseman is very low.

Extremely low, I'm talking realistic ceiling here.

 

[2SeamHeat]

I saw that last night, and I agree with Jntg... Mayo's list is a joke... Lake and McNutt should not be in the top 10. Heck, he may not deserve to be listed here at all. Jackson in the top 3 is silly. Hatley definitely shouldn't be listed, Amaya is very borderline. Maples needs to drop due to his failure to pitch. Whitenack needs to drop as well. Villanueva was the #100 prospect by BBA this year... and amongst the top 6 3B prospects. Where is he? Where is Paniagua or De la Rosa? Where is Alcantara?

Top 5 should be Baez, Soler, Almora, Vizcaino, Jackson (maybe).

 

[dabynsky]

Extremely low, I'm talking realistic ceiling here.

Look we can debate it, but I just talking about in general why Lake is liked by some. Scouts love the tools. I agree that it is unlikely that he becomes a stud, but the point remains that high of Lake's ability is probably higher than a guy like Villanueva. Granted I like Villanueva as a prospect a lot more than Lake because he is a lot more polished.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Look we can debate it, but I just talking about in general why Lake is liked by some. Scouts love the tools. I agree that it is unlikely that he becomes a stud, but the point remains that high of Lake's ability is probably higher than a guy like Villanueva. Granted I like Villanueva as a prospect a lot more than Lake because he is a lot more polished.

This argument is silly. You two are arguing over Lake's status as a second base prospect, when he's been moved to 3B because he's simply terrible up the middle... and has gotten too big to really play either position. At best, Lake might make a below average third baseman. He's just not that good. I don't care what his tools are at this point. He has yet to come close to put them together despite 6 years in the minors including the Dominican camps.

If we're going strictly by tools... then why the hell didn't Felix Pie become our everyday, All Star CF? No one had more tools than he did... but yet he couldn't put them together. Why didn't Juan Mateo ever become that ace his tools suggested he was? That's the rub with 90% of all of the Latin American "stud prospects". They all have advanced tools and talents... but the lack of an actual amateur structure in those nations makes them equally raw as a Little Leaguer in most cases. Most of them just don't ever put it all together. Those that do, sky-rocket into the majors by the age of 20-22... and typically have excellent rookie seasons. I'm sorry. .279 with 105 Ks at AA, nothing else of real significance, and opening up a butcher's shop at 3B just isn't "top prospect" level to me.

I do hope he comes back with a solid season next year, and maybe finally breaks through in order to give us a real option beyond Vitters in the short term... but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Jntg4]

Forgot he was moved to 3B, as I simply stopped following Tennessee all-together for quite some time, and then would only check in on Szczur after he was called up.

 

[dabynsky]

This argument is silly. You two are arguing over Lake's status as a second base prospect, when he's been moved to 3B because he's simply terrible up the middle... and has gotten too big to really play either position. At best, Lake might make a below average third baseman. He's just not that good. I don't care what his tools are at this point. He has yet to come close to put them together despite 6 years in the minors including the Dominican camps.

If we're going strictly by tools... then why the hell didn't Felix Pie become our everyday, All Star CF? No one had more tools than he did... but yet he couldn't put them together. Why didn't Juan Mateo ever become that ace his tools suggested he was? That's the rub with 90% of all of the Latin American "stud prospects". They all have advanced tools and talents... but the lack of an actual amateur structure in those nations makes them equally raw as a Little Leaguer in most cases. Most of them just don't ever put it all together. Those that do, sky-rocket into the majors by the age of 20-22... and typically have excellent rookie seasons. I'm sorry. .279 with 105 Ks at AA, nothing else of real significance, and opening up a butcher's shop at 3B just isn't "top prospect" level to me.

I do hope he comes back with a solid season next year, and maybe finally breaks through in order to give us a real option beyond Vitters in the short term... but I'm not holding my breath.

I enjoy reading your posts a ton 2Seam, but I think you missed the point of what I was saying. I am not saying that Junior Lake is a stud prospect, and him being ranked at eighth in a middle of the pack farm system doesn't mean Mayo thinks Lake is a stud prospect either. The point is that how organizations, scouts, and minor league experts weight ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling changes how guys stack up, and that outside of the Cubs 4 stud prospects (Baez, Soler, Almora, Vizcaino) the way that you rate the guys from 5-20 depends a lot on how you value those things.

Lake is a 22 year old that I agree is very unlikely to reach that peak, but that doesn't mean you can completely discount the scouts that still rave about his tools. And so depending on who Mayo is talking too and how he values those variables really does affect how the list turns out. That was the point I was raising. I don't agree with Mayo's rankings, but you can make a case for a lot of guys in that 5-20 range since the Cubs have so many guys that are either really toolsy (Lake, Vogelbach, Torreyes) or guys without the drop dead tools but do everything well (Villanueva).

 

[2SeamHeat]

I enjoy reading your posts a ton 2Seam, but I think you missed the point of what I was saying. I am not saying that Junior Lake is a stud prospect, and him being ranked at eighth in a middle of the pack farm system doesn't mean Mayo thinks Lake is a stud prospect either. The point is that how organizations, scouts, and minor league experts weight ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling changes how guys stack up, and that outside of the Cubs 4 stud prospects (Baez, Soler, Almora, Vizcaino) the way that you rate the guys from 5-20 depends a lot on how you value those things.

Lake is a 22 year old that I agree is very unlikely to reach that peak, but that doesn't mean you can completely discount the scouts that still rave about his tools. And so depending on who Mayo is talking too and how he values those variables really does affect how the list turns out. That was the point I was raising. I don't agree with Mayo's rankings, but you can make a case for a lot of guys in that 5-20 range since the Cubs have so many guys that are either really toolsy (Lake, Vogelbach, Torreyes) or guys without the drop dead tools but do everything well (Villanueva).

That, Dab, I'll buy. The talent is there. There's not doubt to that if you've even only seen him play a handful of times. However, he really has to put it together. Mayo is usually pretty OK in assessing things like this. I just think he missed pretty badly here. Also, if he's the guy that setup the rankings last this year... then there's another really bad list. So, he'd have a pretty bad track record... and perhaps some of his rankings are done in hopes of backing himself up with last year's rankings.

 

[Jntg4]

Yes 2Seam he did them last year, and I'm pretty sure nobody takes his rankings seriously at all.

 

[dabynsky]

Yes 2Seam he did them last year, and I'm pretty sure nobody takes his rankings seriously at all.

I honestly think it shows how tough it is know the guys that are outside of the top 200 prospects in baseball when trying to put together top 20-30 lists for every team.

 

[2SeamHeat]

I honestly think it shows how tough it is know the guys that are outside of the top 200 prospects in baseball when trying to put together top 20-30 lists for every team.

True enough, particularly when you aren't a scout... aren't really an analyst... and have to rely on other people's info. Plus, if he put together a list even close to the other publications, those other guys would scream foul.

 

[dabynsky]

True enough, particularly when you aren't a scout... aren't really an analyst... and have to rely on other people's info. Plus, if he put together a list even close to the other publications, those other guys would scream foul.

Mayo would probably fourth or fifth in terms of guys I look to for minor league info, but lets not kid ourselves about how tough the job is given all the variables you have to weigh when make these lists.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Mayo would probably fourth or fifth in terms of guys I look to for minor league info, but lets not kid ourselves about how tough the job is given all the variables you have to weigh when make these lists.

True. He also does it all on his own apparently for mlb.com. BBA, BP, and other places all have an entire team of people... including many former scouts... that help make their lists. They have guys that watch 3-4 teams.... not 1 guy to watch all 30 teams.

I do think he's very good in terms of the amateurs. He has a broader scale of scouts to talk to in terms of that, though.