I chose VJack because of where they can line him up across the formation to create Mis-matches for other players on their offense. Mathews is too injury prone to become a factor.. Even if he's healthy, the Chargers don't run the ball enough anyway (although they should)
First off, I respect what you do and your analysis but I want to point some things out:
1. VJax has been dealing with injury issues himself (hammy / abdominal) the entire season as well. He has been extremely inconsistent and other than the Green Bay game he hasn't really done anything since week 4. He's also had some games where he's had the dropsies...
2. If you watched the Lions game last week, they tried a lot of different WR looks with a ton of slant / short routes. It obviously didn't work out that well for them... and those passes will be the majority of the ones Rivers will have the chance to make... why do you ask...
3. Dombrowski gets owned against speed rushers just like he was owned last week by Wimbley. With all of the pressure that Rivers will be under, they MUST run the ball and they know that... which leads us to...
4. When it comes to Mathews look at the patterns throughout this season. He started with a lighter workload and that workload ramped up in weeks 3-5. During that stretch he averaged 4.9 yards / carry. He had the calf strain in week 6 against the Broncos and the groin injury against the Chiefs in week 8 so he's been dealing with those injuries ever since then but now he is supposedly 100%. His workload will increase and the Chargers know that it has to this week.
In addition, here's a recent quote Rivers said about VJax from last week...
Rivers said if he had to guess, a safety was "clouding" over Jackson on 80 percent or more of the Chargers offensive plays. Rivers chose to look elsewhere, leaving V-Jax as a non-factor for the first three and a half quarters.
5. This will happen again this week with our safeties and if Rivers follows his pattern he won't throw very much to VJax.
Anyways, I guess we'll both see what happens this Sunday and who knows... maybe we'll both be wrong.