Football Outsiders: Trubs the Gunslinger?

[bamainatlanta]

Week 16 Quick Reads

What has been the key to Mitchell Trubisky's turnaround? We look at how the Chicago Bears quarterback has changed his game with our annual look at QB Styles. Plus the best passers, runners, and receivers in Week 16.

www.footballoutsiders.com

"Following a six-game losing streak that dropped them to 5-7, the Chicago Bears have won three games in a row and now control their own postseason destiny: if they beat the Green Bay Packers at home on Sunday, they're in the playoffs. The key to Chicago's turnaround has been Mitchell Trubisky. In his last four games (including a strong performance in a 34-30 loss to Detroit), Trubisky has completed 72% of his passes for an 8.1-yard average with seven touchdowns, seven sacks, and two interceptions. The Bears are now 6-2 in when they start Trubisky, who is playing as well as he ever has -- his 7.8% DVOA over the past month is higher than the 3.6% mark he posted in 2018, the best season of his career.

What's notable about Trubisky's improvement is how he has been more aggressive and taken more risks this season. His interception rate of 2.7% is actually up from his 2019 rate of 1.9%, but he's averaging a full yard more per pass (7.1, up from 6.1) and is throwing way more touchdowns (6.3% of his passes have produced six points this year, nearly double his 3.3% rate last season)."

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

Mitch is definitely looking like a better quarterback but let's keep who he has played in perspective lol. He's still making stupid decisions with the football that he shouldn't be making as a 4 year vet.

 

[Nail Polish]

The way things have turned around, I'm starting to favor keeping Nagy as long as Lazor continues to play call. That would be the sticking point as far as I'm concerned.
But, Pagano has to go.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Mitch is definitely looking like a better quarterback but let's keep who he has played in perspective lol. He's still making stupid decisions with the football that he shouldn't be making as a 4 year vet.

Listening to Gannon trying to rationalize that INT was hilarious. He wanted to call him a fucking idiot but couldn't. That ball was quacking like a duck

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

I was watching some random guy on youtube with the coaches film trying to explain why that throw made sense. There was literally no one open on that play, Mitch should have chucked it out of bounds. He even said so in his pc.

 

[bamainatlanta]

The way things have turned around, I'm starting to favor keeping Nagy as long as Lazor continues to play call. That would be the sticking point as far as I'm concerned.
But, Pagano has to go.

In the 1st Minnesota game, on one of the Minny TD drives, they had a 3rd and 4 at midfield. Pagano called a zone drop that left the short middle wide open. Cook caught the ball for an easy 1st down, nearest Bear player was 5 yds away. Unbelievably stupid playcall by Pagano

 

[Nail Polish]

In the 1st Minnesota game, on one of the Minny TD drives, they had a 3rd and 4 at midfield. Pagano called a zone drop that left the short middle wide open. Cook caught the ball for an easy 1st down, nearest Bear player was 5 yds away. Unbelievably stupid playcall by Pagano

That hole is usually there...Except for the Texans game where he had it covered.. Every other game this season had that same hole

 

[Milky]

I agree Pagano has to go but who replaces him?

No DC worth their salt is going to come here with HC on the hot seat. It’s the reverse Lovie effect that landed us with Mike Tice as OC. So in order to get a decent DC you are going to have to fire Nagy and start over with a new coaching staff, extend Nagy (gross), or promote someone like Rogers who worked under Fangio.

I’d be willing to promote Rogers if there was a viable candidate to replace him but I’d rather just junk the entire staff.

 

[Montucky]

I agree Pagano has to go but who replaces him?

No DC worth their salt is going to come here with HC on the hot seat. It’s the reverse Lovie effect that landed us with Mike Tice as OC. So in order to get a decent DC you are going to have to fire Nagy and start over with a new coaching staff, extend Nagy (gross), or promote someone like Rogers who worked under Fangio.

I’d be willing to promote Rogers if there was a viable candidate to replace him but I’d rather just junk the entire staff.

There's a lot of talent on the Bears defense and its a job that comes with the highest degree of autonomy of almost any coordinator job in the whole league. The position is basically "Head Coach of the Defense", that will attract a lot of candidates regardless of Nagy's status.

That said I dont think Pagano is the problem. The problem is Mack and Quinn not playing well enough.

 

[jsu34]

I would really like to see Mitch tuck the ball and run instead of making the late bad throw in the red zone.
If he did that we might actually have something.

 

[and 69 others]

Mitch should have been what Josh Allen is right now. Use your damn feet to get yardage when nothing else is there. Of course Nagy forcing him not to hasn’t helped.

 

[Penny Traitor]

I would really like to see Mitch tuck the ball and run instead of making the late bad throw in the red zone.
If he did that we might actually have something.

I thought his TD run on Sunday was everything I have been missing about Trubisky for two years now.

I am glad he is playing with confidence because the bum slaying stops now and how he handles himself is going to determine literally his entire NFL career going forward.

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

He’s still not a good quarterback, but the offensive scheme now is able to mask some of his deficiencies in ways that it didn’t do before, which makes him look better and more serviceable.

If they had been using this system the last two seasons, they would have made the playoffs in 2019 and would have already clinched a WC spot this year by now as well.

 

[Nail Polish]

I agree Pagano has to go but who replaces him?

No DC worth their salt is going to come here with HC on the hot seat. It’s the reverse Lovie effect that landed us with Mike Tice as OC. So in order to get a decent DC you are going to have to fire Nagy and start over with a new coaching staff, extend Nagy (gross), or promote someone like Rogers who worked under Fangio.

I’d be willing to promote Rogers if there was a viable candidate to replace him but I’d rather just junk the entire staff.

Coaches | Chicago Bears Official Website

www.chicagobears.com

 

[Penny Traitor]

He’s still not a good quarterback, but the offensive scheme now is able to mask some of his deficiencies in ways that it didn’t do before, which makes him look better and more serviceable.

There is a lot of truth here, but the biggest factor of Trubisky's run has been a very clean pocket. Yes the OL has been playing better, but the Lions/Texans/Vikes/Jags really did not have a strong pass rush.

If I am Mike Pettine, I am sending the house after Trubisky early and often. Let's see how much Mitch has really learned if he can start burning defenses on the blitz.

 

[Raskolnikov]

The way things have turned around, I'm starting to favor keeping Nagy as long as Lazor continues to play call. That would be the sticking point as far as I'm concerned.
But, Pagano has to go.

I'm in the same place. And they have to find a QB outside of the first 3 rounds while they manage another season with Trubs or buy time to buy a FA QB. Maybe continue to draft upside QB's on day 3 while bringing in a carrousel of second and third chance veterans with high quality traits hoping one takes the next step.

Trubisky is good enough to continue to work toward maximizing. Its not going to be easy for anybody to beat him out now in the prime of his career.

I hope we can get him for a modest long term "best for everyone" type of deal and keep him around to be competitive until that savior does eventually emerge.

Trubisky is good enough to win with, and is kind of a good measuring stick. A team that can win with him has potential and is doing some good things.

Competitiveness helps everyone develop at their craft, coaches too. Truth is now part of the process and until dethroned is back in the "best we got" category the Bears are used to at QB.

So you bring him back unless he has crazy demands or he and his agent think he is better off elsewhere.


Trubisky/Wentz is a great QB room, personally I would find and develop a black QB or a Tayson Hill type in addtion to that, maybe even a 2nd day 4th round rookie QB if the PS rules stay the same and we can protect a 4th. Or just roster 4 QB's if we are still searching for a savior use every slot to do so you can. So 4 QB's until one is found.

Wentz-Trubisky-Winston/RG3/Kap-4th rd Rook


Given the value of the position I don't get why everyone who doesn't currently have a HoF QB doesn't invest like this.


The NFL is becoming more competitive all the time still, and it appears you need to have 2 QB's to complete a season, maybe 3...IF EVERYTHING GOES PRETTY WELL!!

Its such a hard position these guys are getting burned out like Wentz or Brees even when they know what they are doing well enough to protect themselves.

We need QB's found at value at every tier of purchase. Probably Wentz cap number has to come down, but he may be cut out right, imo. They might just move on to clean house and eat it?

Get Wentz if so. Borderline HoF potential. Better numbers than McNabb to that point. He had the one MVP caliber season. His game fits Chicago.

I like him enough I wouldn't care what the cap price was, but the Bears likely don't see it that way.

 

[bamainatlanta]

There is a lot of truth here, but the biggest factor of Trubisky's run has been a very clean pocket. Yes the OL has been playing better, but the Lions/Texans/Vikes/Jags really did not have a strong pass rush.

If I am Mike Pettine, I am sending the house after Trubisky early and often. Let's see how much Mitch has really learned if he can start burning defenses on the blitz.

It has helped a lot that Lazor is moving the pocket too.

 

[SlickWilly]

It has helped a lot that Lazor is moving the pocket too.

It's also helping that Mustipher and Bars are making the O-line better and the whole line is opening holes for Monty.

 

[Hbkrusso]

Lol gunslinger lets not get carried away here
Trubs in my mind isnt a gunslinger hes a system qb who if you play too his strengths on offense and play good defence he will be a decent starting qb
Guys been misused and undervalued scapegoated and trashed throughout his short career
All because he was drafted high
This season is the factual proof of this

 

[TheWinman]

There's a lot of talent on the Bears defense and its a job that comes with the highest degree of autonomy of almost any coordinator job in the whole league. The position is basically "Head Coach of the Defense", that will attract a lot of candidates regardless of Nagy's status.

That said I dont think Pagano is the problem. The problem is Mack and Quinn not playing well enough.

You're an idiot. watch some game film. LMFAO