For those interested in metrics, here's a useful listing of impending FA

[beckdawg]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/2014-free-agent-leaderboards.html

It's really useful in my opinion since fangraphs has a nice selection of stats.

 

[beckdawg]

Digging into it a bit here's a couple of guys who seem interesting to me.

Josh Johnson
2- 8 with a 6.20 ERA. Crap right? Well maybe not. 9.18 K/9 is pretty good. If he had enough innings to qualify(133+ IP he has 81) he'd be 12th behind Felix Hernandez. His 3.32 BB/9 is concerning. But, it's the same pace Shark is on this year and Johnson's K/9 is higher. His BABIP is really really high. He currently sits at .356. The highest pitcher who has qualified innings is at .337. So, there's reason to believe he's been at least some what unlucky. His HR/FB is also high at 18.5% which probably plays into his high BABIP. It's around 10% higher than his career average. His K/9 is around his career best. His BB/9 is a full walk ahead of his best years and obvioulsy he's giving up way too many HRs. That said, he's a very interesting buy low candidate for me. If you can get him in the $13-15 mil/year range I think he would be very interesting.

Ben Zobrist
I think Zobrist has a team option so he might be retained. However, if he isn't there is a clear hole at 2B in terms of offense. There's no clear cut option at 3B in FA that makes sense. So, unless they plan to move Castro to 2B or play Baez there its the one clear position in the infield that can use an upgrade and clearly Zobrist with a .354 OBP would be a good fit. Lake would be another possibility but he seems to be suited for the OF at the moment. Zobrist also has positional flexibility which is always a plus. He could in theory also see time in the OF.

Shin-Soo Choo
I've been on Choo for awhile because of his high OBP. But that's not the only reason. He has flexibility to man any of the 3 positions in the OF albeit his range is limited in center. The other reason is if you're looking to increase the team OBP there's not a ton of guys out there this coming off season. Granderson and Elsbury are good but you'd expect to see them back with their current teams or break the bank as the top two guys. Cruz and Byrd are interesting but big questions. Beltran may re-sign with the Cards and there's age concerns. Baker Dejesus and Crisp would all be cheaper options

They could possibly get these guys for maybe $35-40 mil. Last year they had $40 mil to spend. Given the savings from Soriano, Dejesus, and Marmol, it wouldn't be a stretch to believe $50 mil is where they would be this coming year. That'd leave them around $10-15 mil to fill out the rest of the roster. Figure $5 mil for a 5th starter in the Maholm/Feldman mold. Say $2 mil for a 4th OF in the Schierholtz mold. You'd probably need 1-2 more bench bats and 2-3 bull pen guys for the remaining $3-8 mil.

 

[X]

Digging into it a bit here's a couple of guys who seem interesting to me.

Josh Johnson
2- 8 with a 6.20 ERA. Crap right? Well maybe not. 9.18 K/9 is pretty good. If he had enough innings to qualify(133+ IP he has 81) he'd be 12th behind Felix Hernandez. His 3.32 BB/9 is concerning. But, it's the same pace Shark is on this year and Johnson's K/9 is higher. His BABIP is really really high. He currently sits at .356. The highest pitcher who has qualified innings is at .337. So, there's reason to believe he's been at least some what unlucky. His HR/FB is also high at 18.5% which probably plays into his high BABIP. It's around 10% higher than his career average. His K/9 is around his career best. His BB/9 is a full walk ahead of his best years and obvioulsy he's giving up way too many HRs. That said, he's a very interesting buy low candidate for me. If you can get him in the $13-15 mil/year range I think he would be very interesting.

Ben Zobrist
I think Zobrist has a team option so he might be retained. However, if he isn't there is a clear hole at 2B in terms of offense. There's no clear cut option at 3B in FA that makes sense. So, unless they plan to move Castro to 2B or play Baez there its the one clear position in the infield that can use an upgrade and clearly Zobrist with a .354 OBP would be a good fit. Lake would be another possibility but he seems to be suited for the OF at the moment. Zobrist also has positional flexibility which is always a plus. He could in theory also see time in the OF.

Shin-Soo Choo
I've been on Choo for awhile because of his high OBP. But that's not the only reason. He has flexibility to man any of the 3 positions in the OF albeit his range is limited in center. The other reason is if you're looking to increase the team OBP there's not a ton of guys out there this coming off season. Granderson and Elsbury are good but you'd expect to see them back with their current teams or break the bank as the top two guys. Cruz and Byrd are interesting but big questions. Beltran may re-sign with the Cards and there's age concerns. Baker Dejesus and Crisp would all be cheaper options

They could possibly get these guys for maybe $35-40 mil. Last year they had $40 mil to spend. Given the savings from Soriano, Dejesus, and Marmol, it wouldn't be a stretch to believe $50 mil is where they would be this coming year. That'd leave them around $10-15 mil to fill out the rest of the roster. Figure $5 mil for a 5th starter in the Maholm/Feldman mold. Say $2 mil for a 4th OF in the Schierholtz mold. You'd probably need 1-2 more bench bats and 2-3 bull pen guys for the remaining $3-8 mil.

Zobrist has team options for the next to years around $7M -- he'll be in Tampa...

Choo - I like his offense...But I know a LOT of Cinci fans that say his defense is ridiculously bad. Takes bad angles, weak arm, misplays balls...If we get him, we'll likely overpay....but he's still solid offensively.

Don't see the team ponying up for Johnson, and I'm not sure I'd love it if they did go after him.

VERY interesting read though, thx!

 

[beckdawg]

Zobrist has team options for the next to years around $7M -- he'll be in Tampa...

Choo - I like his offense...But I know a LOT of Cinci fans that say his defense is ridiculously bad. Takes bad angles, weak arm, misplays balls...If we get him, we'll likely overpay....but he's still solid offensively.

Don't see the team ponying up for Johnson, and I'm not sure I'd love it if they did go after him.

VERY interesting read though, thx!

I would be surprised if the Rays didn't pick up Zobrist like you say. It's a shame because I've always liked him for his amazing positional flexibility. As for Choo, I think you would stick him in LF at the start of the season. At mid-season if Bryant/Baez are both up you then have a decision to make. The metrics say defensively his range is the only issue which would be mitigated in LF.

 

[CSF77]

Chris Capuano if he doesn't get his option. I see him as an upg over Rusin at low cost. adds a 2nd LH into the rotation.

Hitting I'm leaning towards Nelson Cruz. Again a lower WAR value and coming off of roids suspension. As we saw from Byrd and his 22 HR's guys can bounce back strong after getting suspended.

Both I would offer short term offers. Cruz would provide a legit bat inbetween Rizzo and Schierholtz and could be a solid resale piece when Baez is ready.

 

[beckdawg]

Cruz worries me. Over the last 3 years, on the road Cruz is .247 with 25 HR, 99 RBIs and .300 OBP vs .307 with 50 HRs, 156 RBIs and .364 OBP at home. That's a rather dramatic split for someone who also has roid concerns. He's also had injury concerns in the past. I'm hoping Vizcaino can be the #5 next year honestly.

 

[waldo7239117]

Cruz is good, but tbh, I don't want a steroid player who only cares about himself. Nope, I'll pass. Choo will be overpaid and I don't want the Cubs to be the team to do so. Johnson has another injury and I would like to see a 1-year contract - base, plus incentives. But I bet he'll get more money that than.

Vizcaino may be a good 5th starter, but I'm looking him as closer and Strop as set-up man. If everything goes right, they can easily be best 8-9 punch. Both have amazing stuff. For Strop, if he commands and if Vizcaino can stay healthy. Let's see how he does in the AFL.

 

[CSF77]

Cruz worries me. Over the last 3 years, on the road Cruz is .247 with 25 HR, 99 RBIs and .300 OBP vs .307 with 50 HRs, 156 RBIs and .364 OBP at home. That's a rather dramatic split for someone who also has roid concerns. He's also had injury concerns in the past. I'm hoping Vizcaino can be the #5 next year honestly.

Vizcaino is a major reach even being healthy to pitch again. Much less start.

Vizcaino may be a good 5th starter, but I'm looking him as closer and Strop as set-up man. If everything goes right, they can easily be best 8-9 punch. Both have amazing stuff. For Strop, if he commands and if Vizcaino can stay healthy. Let's see how he does in the AFL.

I agree with this view.

Still those splits are better then what they have right now.

Cruz is good, but tbh, I don't want a steroid player who only cares about himself. Nope, I'll pass. Choo will be overpaid and I don't want the Cubs to be the team to do so. Johnson has another injury and I would like to see a 1-year contract - base, plus incentives. But I bet he'll get more money that than.

To be honest I would be concerned if they offered more then 1 year to him. If they gave him a one year deal to gamble on a flip while he was looking to rebuild his rep in the league with something to prove. It would not be a bad situation to be in.

Right now they lack a middle of the order RH power bat. Olt.... Lake.... Castro... Castillo.... and so on. Seeing the want Choo doesn't fill this need.

They need a proven bat (like Sori was) to man the #4 spot until Baez and Bryant promote up. They could have avoided this line up weakness by not trading Sori a year early just to shave off 6 mil. Still I could see Cruz getting 3 mil due to his situation. More then that pass.

 

[beckdawg]

Vizcaino is a major reach even being healthy to pitch again. Much less start.

Think you're over reacting a tad here. It hasn't even been 2 years removed from his tommy john surgery and it generally takes 2 full years before pitchers return to where they were. He had another injury that i forget but it was nothing to do with the ligaments and was a clean up procedure IIRC. He'll be pitching in the AFL.

It might be a stretch to project him to the #5 starter at this point but I did say I hope he can be that player.

 

[CSF77]

Think you're over reacting a tad here. It hasn't even been 2 years removed from his tommy john surgery and it generally takes 2 full years before pitchers return to where they were.

When he is healthy I'll consider it. I've been through the "hope game" with Prior already to play it again.

 

[beckdawg]

When he is healthy I'll consider it. I've been through the "hope game" with Prior already to play it again.

I can see why a cubs fan would worry. But generally speaking, these days it's pretty common and the majority of people seem to rebound fine from it after 2 years

 

[CSF77]

I can see why a cubs fan would worry. But generally speaking, these days it's pretty common and the majority of people seem to rebound fine from it after 2 years

Not really a Cubs fan issue at all. Let me put it this way.

I would rather have Rusin as the 5 right now because he is pitching every 5th day and keeps his team in the game. Now if they gamble again with Baker and have Viz in the wings just in case that is fine. But I wouldn't go into the season banking on 2 DL cases in 2013 for teh rotation in 14. That would be stupid.

 

[dabears253313]

It would be awesome if Matt Garza was the first player that the Cubs signed in the off season.

 

[beckdawg]

Not really a Cubs fan issue at all. Let me put it this way.

I just mean with wood and priors pasts it's easy to see why some here would be leery.

 

[CSF77]

I just mean with wood and priors pasts it's easy to see why some here would be leery.

I'm not sure why Jim Hendry and the Trib management put all of that faith into Prior and Wood being healthy. 2007 they finally got a clue and signed Lilly and Marquez. Paid off in the end.

Just goes to show that talent doesn't mean much if it is on the DL. Again would rather have the lackluster guy that takes the ball every 5th day and gives his team a chance to win. That is why I like Wood on the team. Woody on the other hand was injured more than not and we have seen the results.

It was not about $$$ either back then because they spent on the line up. Seems that the mentality back then was to out score.