HurricaneDij's 2014 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

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Team Name: The Ducks

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Last season (2013), I punted starting pitching and paid the price for it, leading to a woeful 8-15 record. My top two starting pitchers I drafted (at the time) were Roy Halladay and Ryan Vogelsong. Yikes. Last year also marked the first year I joined a paid fantasy league. I was too big for my britches, if you will.

Instead of starting pitching, this year my plan was to punt shortstop and third base, two positions you are highly unlikely to receive elite-level production out of outside the top three or four options on the board. With starting pitching such a major downfall for my team last year, I planned to turn my focus on the pitching-rich Braves and Rays organizations for my starting pitching this year. I've also elected to lower the stakes for this year, committing $30 to fantasy baseball as opposed to last year's $100.

In a head-to-head points-based league on CBSSports.com, I was given the eighth overall pick in a snake-style draft.

Round 1, Pick 8
: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates - I'm not one who likes to take pitching in the first two rounds. I traditionally prefer to go with an outfielder with my first pick. It came down to McCutchen or CarGo here, and I went with McCutchen for his durability.

Round 2, Pick 13
: Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays - This was the guy I specifically targeted at #13 even prior to the start of the draft. Joey Votto and Prince Fielder were the bigger-name options, but I wasn't too thrilled with Votto's "modest" first base power or with the way Fielder has aged as he approaches 30 years old. With Encarnacion, I know for a fact he's going to give me 30+ homers and a decent batting average.

Round 3, Pick 28: Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - Ouch. I hate the Dodgers, but he was the only passable fantasy ace remaining on the board at pick #28.

Round 4, Pick 33: Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals - For whatever reason, he wasn't ranked too highly on CBS draft boards. Probably due to his ho-hum win total last year.

Round 5, Pick 48: Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, Seattle Mariners - James Shields was the other option here, but with all the innings he's thrown over they years, it leads me to believe something is about to give with him. During my early years as a Cubs fan, I still remember the Jon Leiber experiment when he threw over 250 innings in a season and was never the same afterwards. Iwakuma should be due for a boost in wins with Seattle's improved offense.

Round 6, Pick 53: Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Texas Rangers - The fact the he got paid gives him slightly added risk. But, his move to Arlington as well as a possible .400 on-base percentage was nearly impossible to pass up. As a Cubs fan, I'm thrilled he's no longer with the Reds.

Round 7, Pick 68
: Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays - See my Braves/Rays strategy above.

Round 8, Pick 73
: Kris Medlen, SP, Atlanta Braves - Ditto.

Round 9, Pick 88
: Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers - Probably my biggest reach, but as a Cubs fan who makes annual trips to Miller park every year, I love this guy. Hopefully the Brewers will eventually move him to first base and maintain his health.

Round 10, Pick 93
: Victor Martinez, DH, Detroit Tigers - There were higher-touted options, but he's just a pure hitter who isn't an injury-risk (knock on wood) as the Tigers' DH.

Round 11, Pick 108
: Sergio Romo, RP, San Francisco Giants - Rafael Soriano was the other option for my first closer, but went with Romo because of his championship pedigree and the fact that he is younger.

Round 12, Pick 113
: Alfonso Soriano, OF/DH, New York Yankees - As a Cubs fan, I'm well aware of what he's capable of when he doesn't have to play the field. His on-base percentage will always be his downfall, but he should hit 30 homers again no problem primarily being used as the DH for the Yankees.

Round 13, Pick 128: Matt Garza, SP, Milwaukee Brewers - I targeted my fellow Northwest Indiana resident Jeff Samardzija here, but he went one pick earlier at #127. Garza overall is the better pitcher anyway. As long as pitchers' hitting stats don't count (haha), I think I did very well here.

Round 14, Pick 133
: Justin Masterson, SP, Cleveland Indians - The Indians' ace continues to go undervalued (I can't possibly imagine who could have drafted him in real life). You just have to hope that 2012 was the aberration year.

Round 15, Pick 148: Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks - Over the last couple of years, I've labeled him as a modern-day Craig Biggio, minus Biggio's legendary durability. Banking on a rebound.

Round 16, Pick 153: Drew Smyly, RP, Detroit Tigers - I took a chance here, but couldn't pass up on his dual eligibility.

Round 17, Pick 168: John Lackey, SP, Boston Red Sox - Dillon Gee was the alternative here and has more long-term upside, but Lackey will post more W's this year.

Round 18, Pick 173
: Ernesto Frieri, RP, Los Angeles Angels - Also considered Casey Janssen and Josh Fields for my second closer, but ultimately went for the guys with the best pure stuff. Just limit the homers, buddy, and you're good to go.

Round 19, Pick 188: Dexter Fowler, OF, Houston Astros - Unfortunately, I could build a better fantasy team with Astro players than I can with Cub players. Sigh.

Round 20, Pick 193
: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Houston Astros - Perhaps my favorite sleeper this year. Kyle Seager was still on the board and was a much safer choice, but as a free-swinger who doesn't strike out too much, I'll take the batting average upside with Dominguez along with upper teens in homers. His .254 BABIP suggests that better days are to come.

Round 21, Pick 208
: Yunel Escobar, SS, Tampa Bay Rays - Even this late, there were much sexier options still on the board. But on CBS where walks count, I want a guy that gets on base frequently at such a thin position and hoping he can hit .280 again with double digit home runs.

So yeah, my plan was quite simple. Punt shortstop and third base. Know that Dominguez and Escobar will be there late, and beef up at other positions. And yeah, Dominguez is my favorite sleeper in fantasy baseball this year...

http://hurricanedij39.sportsblog.com/posts/347459/hurricanedij_s_2014_fantasy_baseball.html
 

brett05

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Edwin Encarnacion #13 overall in all of baseball?

WHOA!
 

Boobaby1

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Edwin Encarnacion #13 overall in all of baseball?

WHOA!

Lets see, he hits 42 HR's in 1008 PA's in back-to-back years in Cinci in 07' and 08', but now finds the fountain of youth at just now turned age 31, and hits 78 HR's in 1072 PA's in Toronto in back-to-back years, and has done it primarily against AL East pitching.

Something looks peculiar here. He screams PED's.

It's hard for me to believe that Toronto could hit pay dirt twice with Batista and Encarnacion.

Color me skeptical.

I think they should start piping some of that water from Toronto into Chicago.
 

ZAN

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Just my .02. I play a ton of daily fantasy ball and also play a high entry NL-Only 5x5 dynasty salary cap league.

You went way too early on the pitching. You should be getting hitters in the 3rd round unless the pick's name is Verlander, King Felix, or Bumgardener (those are guys with ADPs in the 30s).

NFBC says you took Greinke two rounds early. And it seems like you are in an 8 team league...so you are talking about taking pitchers extremely early in this case. And if all those guys are grabbing pitchers...you had the best sticks staring at you. Why pass on them for good (but not elite) SPs?

Punt SS (because Tulo is really it...lol) and CP (who cares about 1 category players?)

You're only in year 2...so it was a solid draft given experience. But you definitely need to get in roto fantasy instead of head 2 head. Nothing is worse than playing 6 months to have your season end on one bad week (or even worse...have a guy you hit 50 more HRs than beat you in playoffs by one category...HRs)
 

brett05

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Just my .02. I play a ton of daily fantasy ball and also play a high entry NL-Only 5x5 dynasty salary cap league.

You went way too early on the pitching. You should be getting hitters in the 3rd round unless the pick's name is Verlander, King Felix, or Bumgardener (those are guys with ADPs in the 30s).

NFBC says you took Greinke two rounds early. And it seems like you are in an 8 team league...so you are talking about taking pitchers extremely early in this case. And if all those guys are grabbing pitchers...you had the best sticks staring at you. Why pass on them for good (but not elite) SPs?

Punt SS (because Tulo is really it...lol) and CP (who cares about 1 category players?)

You're only in year 2...so it was a solid draft given experience. But you definitely need to get in roto fantasy instead of head 2 head. Nothing is worse than playing 6 months to have your season end on one bad week (or even worse...have a guy you hit 50 more HRs than beat you in playoffs by one category...HRs)

I don't know. I kinda like head to head that way if you get a couple injuries you can still have fun.
 

ZAN

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I just don't like the randomness of 6 months of great work being lost by a slow week hitting.
 
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