Hypothetical: what if the cubs had traded for ARod in the 2004 offseason?

[beckdawg]

So I'm sitting here watching ESPN and they have a 30 for 30 on about Arod's trade. I've seen it before but today it just so happened to be after the 30 for 30 on Bartman. My natural first thought was, "that would never work because of the money." But then I remembered the next trade deadline they made this sort of trade with Boston for Nomar. Nomar was 1.5 years from FA and while you're probably not talking about $252 mil for Nomar, surely you are talking in the ball park of $100 mil had he not been hurt. Arod had 7 years and $179 mil left. The NY deal eventually had them pay down to 7 years $112.

As a refersher, here's the deal that Boston initially had laid out and also the trade NY eventually made

Boston deal
Nomar to the Sox for Magglio Ordonez and Brandon McCarthy, Manny Ramirez and Jon Lester to Texas

NY deal
Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias for ARod.

Ultimately the cubs ended up trading Justin Jones, Francis Beltran, Alex Gonzalez and Brendan Harris for Nomar and Matt Murton. Here's some view of people at the time on those players.

Justin Jones was a reasonable prospect for the Twins, in spite of only being 19 years old when he was acquired. He had been the #56 prospect according to Baseball America, and posted his best season with the Twins in 2005, going 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA at High-A. He was no longer with the organization after the 2006 season, spending 3 seasons with the Nationals. It appears he retired after the 2009 season.

Alex Gonzalez was only with the Expos for 35 games, posting a .241/.289/.383 line before being traded as a part of a conditional deal to the Padres. It doesn’t appear that any compensation or players was received for Gonzalez.

Francis Beltran made 11 appearances for the Expos in 2004, with a 7.53 ERA in 14 1/3 innings pitched. He missed the 2005 season due to injury, and spent the 2006 season in the minors for the Nationals. He left via free agency after the 2006 season.

Brendan Harris appeared in 41 games from 2004 to 2006 with the Expos/Nationals as a bench player. He was included in the trade that netted the Nationals OF Austin Kearns, IF Felipe Lopez, and P Ryan Wagner from the Reds.

In the offseason, the cubs ended up dealing for Derrek Lee(Hee Seop Choi #22 prospect in 2003 and Mike Nannini). Angel Guzman was the #26 ranked prospect according to BA, Ryan Harvey was #56, Andy Sisco was #77, Felix Pie was #85, Bobby Brownlie was #92, Nic Jackson who was a 2003 #100. They also had Corey Patterson who was 23 at the time and had just hit .298/.329/.511. In other words, the cubs arguably had enough pieces to make the deal.

Arod would have been 28. The 2004 cubs team had the following line up.
C Michael Barrett age 27
1B Derrek Lee age 28
2B Todd Walker age 31
SS Ramon Martinez age 31/Alex Gonzalez age 31
3B Aramis Ramirez age 26
LF Moises Alou age 37
CF Corey Patterson age 24
RF Sammy Sosa age 35

I'm not sure whether or not you could realistically have made the Lee trade as you may have had to deal Choi to get ARod. Over the 7 years remaining on the deal ARod hit .296/.393/.559 with 268 HRs and 124 SB. Sosa was basically at the end of his run. He played well in 2004 and made the All-Star team but was gone after. Similar story with Alou. So, there's would definitely be work to do. But Aramis and Arod would be one hell of a left side of the infield. If you could get him without giving up Patterson(given the thought at the time) you would likely have to feel pretty good about the future of the team.

Keep in mind this is obviously after the fiasco that was the 2003 NLCS. So, landing easily the best player in the game at the time would certainly breathe life into the team. Ultimately, I'm not sure it matters given Wood/Prior's health. But i think it sets up an interesting situation around the 2007 era because ARod means no Soriano likely. ARod sort of replaces the 8 year $138 mil Soriano got if you assume you could get the rangers to eat a similar amount of money. It also opens up a varying array of options.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

This is tough because you don't know what parts are moving......

Hee Seop Choi likely would have been in the deal, which means no Derrek Lee---which I don't like, because he's one of my alltime favorite cubs. Patterson likely would have had to be in the deal too.

Sergio Mitre wouldn't have gotten us Juan Pierre, Mitre was a decent potential cubs pitcher that Texas also would have asked for at the time.

Also gotta figure they ask for Zambrano.

Aramis too.

There's a list, multiple ones of what I listed likely would have been moving in different mixtures. Not all at once.

 

[beckdawg]

This is tough because you don't know what parts are moving......

Hee Seop Choi likely would have been in the deal, which means no Derrek Lee---which I don't like, because he's one of my alltime favorite cubs. Patterson likely would have had to be in the deal too.

Sergio Mitre wouldn't have gotten us Juan Pierre, Mitre was a decent potential cubs pitcher that Texas also would have asked for at the time.

Also gotta figure they ask for Zambrano.

Aramis too.

There's a list, multiple ones of what I listed likely would have been moving in different mixtures. Not all at once.

If Patterson and Choi are in the deal I can't honestly see them getting much more. That's 2 top 25ish prospects. Maybe you throw Justin Jones in too but the thing to remember is Texas sort of had to trade him. Granted between NY and Boston there were options out there but with 7 years and $179 mil left there weren't that many options especially at this steep of a price even if Texas fotted $50-60 mil like the eventually did. That being said, if you essentially are talking 3 top 50ish prospects that's at the very least competitive as an offer. If you talk about another mega trade where Willis and Cabrera went to the Tigers you had Maybin and Miller coming back as 2 top 25 guys and some lessor prospects.

I do agree though it's sort of difficult to say without knowing all the moving parts. I sort of think you could probably work something else out to get Lee if you can stomach the money issues. FLA was selling off and Choi while a decent prospect wasn't the only guy the cubs had. What makes me wonder is LF/RF if you assume Sosa and Alou only give you one more year. LF might not be that big of a deal as you should be able to find someone for LF though as I recall until they signed Soriano they had Murton playing there. So, that's less than stellar. Also unless I'm mistaken they had Sosa until Fokudome which was less than amazing. Also, if Patterson is gone in the trade then CF also becomes a problem as we now know Pie wasn't the guy.

Overall, just thinking about the Nomar trade in conjunction with the ARod deal got me thinking of the "what ifs."

 

[Zvbxrpl]

If Patterson and Choi are in the deal I can't honestly see them getting much more. That's 2 top 25ish prospects. Maybe you throw Justin Jones in too but the thing to remember is Texas sort of had to trade him. Granted between NY and Boston there were options out there but with 7 years and $179 mil left there weren't that many options especially at this steep of a price even if Texas fotted $50-60 mil like the eventually did. That being said, if you essentially are talking 3 top 50ish prospects that's at the very least competitive as an offer. If you talk about another mega trade where Willis and Cabrera went to the Tigers you had Maybin and Miller coming back as 2 top 25 guys and some lessor prospects.

I do agree though it's sort of difficult to say without knowing all the moving parts. I sort of think you could probably work something else out to get Lee if you can stomach the money issues. FLA was selling off and Choi while a decent prospect wasn't the only guy the cubs had. What makes me wonder is LF/RF if you assume Sosa and Alou only give you one more year. LF might not be that big of a deal as you should be able to find someone for LF though as I recall until they signed Soriano they had Murton playing there. So, that's less than stellar. Also unless I'm mistaken they had Sosa until Fokudome which was less than amazing. Also, if Patterson is gone in the trade then CF also becomes a problem as we now know Pie wasn't the guy.

Overall, just thinking about the Nomar trade in conjunction with the ARod deal got me thinking of the "what ifs."

Well first consider this--the big prospect movement where the over-protection and over-valuing of them began much later than 2003. Teams were far less stingy with their young players.

The more I think about it, the more Patterson had to be included in this "what if" scenario. Their OF was atrocious, not that Patterson was a world beater......

They had solid young talent in the IF with hitting Hank Blaylock, Tex, ARod, Michael Young. The OF had Juan Gonzalez, and thats it.

Their pitching sucked. Only 1 pitcher had lower than a 5 ERA. John Thompson. He was the only one with <10 H/9 too. That's pathetic.

So realistically, Cory Patterson and Z would have gotten their attention. I think Sergio Mitre and a few others have to be thrown in at THAT exact time.