Interesting free agent destination analysis

[Shakes]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=958

I won't spoilt the ending of where stars should go if they want to win, except to say the Bulls look pretty middle of the road.

 

[TheStig]

I must be missing something, from my understanding, they value noah and deandre jordan equally and both are twice as much as Varaejo?

 

[postdiction]

Why don't we get any credit for having cap space? Granted we don't have enough room for 2 max FAs we still have 20 mil in cap space? Compare how much NY and MIA get for cap space and we get 0?

Plus, Hinrich's contract only gets easier to trade for assets or cap space.
Also how does a guy who was injured for his 1st season and never played in the NBA (Griffin) have more value than a guy who is an allstar in his 2nd season and seems like for many years to come?

I don't know this guys break down has many other holes as well.

 

[Shakes]

Because it's a statistical analysis, I believe based on similarity scores to predict how players will perform in the future. Griffin is being credited as a potential superstar based on his college stats, guys who put up those kinds of stats usually are really good.

Obviously you can say you disagree with various points, but the point of the analysis is to be purely stats based and to ignore any subjective judgements. I mean I think Griffin coming back from injury without missing a beta is unlikely, and that stats fail to give Rose fair treatment since he started the year so poorly, but no model can capture everything.

Then again, last year Bill Simmons' predictions were better than both the stats gurus and the bookmakers, so sometimes a bit of subjectivity can be a good thing. I just thought the analysis was interesting because it was pretty much the opposite of conventional wisdom, that the Clippers and Nets aren't somewhere FAs should think seriously about.

 

[TheStig]

Sorry but these ratings are ultra pesimistic, even for me. I can see a toss up between us, NY and Miami but NJ or LAC isn't getting a star over us. Maybe if Griffen played like a star but not now.

 

[Diddy1122]

Just another example of how math geeks trying to quantify basketball into numbers epically fail.

 

[houheffna]

Just another example of how math geeks trying to quantify basketball into numbers epically fail.

Amen Rev. Diddy! I like your preaching better than Rev. Kush lol....

That said, at least its not very predictable. I almost wish I could sleep and someone could wake me up right before the draft...then again, I do think the playoffs will have a small part in some key decisions...

 

[Shakes]

TheStig wrote:

Sorry but these ratings are ultra pesimistic, even for me. I can see a toss up between us, NY and Miami but NJ or LAC isn't getting a star over us. Maybe if Griffen played like a star but not now.

The ratings aren't where he thinks the stars WILL go, it's where he thinks they SHOULD go if they want to win. Obviously because NJ and the Clippers aren't perceived to be good choices the stars are unlikely to go there.

 

[Shakes]

Diddy1122 wrote:

Just another example of how math geeks trying to quantify basketball into numbers epically fail.

It's a hell of a lot more interesting than "Ben Gordon is totes worth 12 million a year" "is not" "is so I said it first I win" "no you didn't, I had my fingers crossed" type of dialog that passes for analysis by most stat haters.

 

[TheStig]

Shakes wrote:

TheStig wrote:

Sorry but these ratings are ultra pesimistic, even for me. I can see a toss up between us, NY and Miami but NJ or LAC isn't getting a star over us. Maybe if Griffen played like a star but not now.

The ratings aren't where he thinks the stars WILL go, it's where he thinks they SHOULD go if they want to win. Obviously because NJ and the Clippers aren't perceived to be good choices the stars are unlikely to go there.

I'm not even talking about that. In what world does anyone expect Deandre Jordan to be as good as NOah? How is Rose not the most valuable player on any of the team? Let along half as much as Griffen and Lopez.

 

[Shakes]

TheStig wrote:

Shakes wrote:

TheStig wrote:

Sorry but these ratings are ultra pesimistic, even for me. I can see a toss up between us, NY and Miami but NJ or LAC isn't getting a star over us. Maybe if Griffen played like a star but not now.

The ratings aren't where he thinks the stars WILL go, it's where he thinks they SHOULD go if they want to win. Obviously because NJ and the Clippers aren't perceived to be good choices the stars are unlikely to go there.

I'm not even talking about that. In what world does anyone expect Deandre Jordan to be as good as NOah? How is Rose not the most valuable player on any of the team? Let along half as much as Griffen and Lopez.

Well I did say it was interesting, I didn't say I agreed with all of it.

Rose's overall stats on the year aren't that impressive, mostly because he was pretty awful in the first couple of months. So any method that's projecting players based on their stats is going to rank Rose lower than he probably should be.

I don't really know how he's got DeAndre Jordan so high, I can only assume he compares similarly to other young guys who put up good numbers once their minutes increased. Which young guys will and wont bust out isn't really easy for anyone to predict (stats or no stats). He probably should have best & worst cases there, a more established guy like Noah would be pretty steady, where as Jordan might be anything from nothing to star level.

Also measuring defensive players like Noah has long been a problem for systems based on box score or play by play stats. Unless we get more advanced statistics that show the same level of detail for shot defense as they do for shooting, I think defensive minded players will always get shortchanged.

The problem I have with stats criticism is you get one strange result and people say "what a stupid prediction, this proves stats are garbage", yet when year after year high draft picks that have been extensively scouted turn out to be busts nobody says "look what a scrub that guy is, this proves watching the game is garbage".

 

[Bullsman24]

This might be the most retarted thing I've read in my whole life.