Just because it is out there doesn't mean everyone is going to see a timely rollout of 4.0.
Smaller companies may have to wait a decade or more.
The duplex format requires a 100% active device swap out in the infrastructure.
That is why I had such wonderful things to say about Arris- they have been looking towards that for a few year- abandoning the mid split bandaid and looking at concurrent pathways.
You sound like you know your shit and keep up with the times.
You involved in network tech?
The way DOCSIS is specced allows for services and businesses to upgrade naturally. Doesn't matter if they roll out a full adoption or not, because everyone in between would use what is available to them. Also allows someone on a line that is physically limited to dwelling to be 50Mbit or so(for arguments sake) to upgrade their own hardware to support better performing components(wish I could just say speed, but there is more to it than that). So 50Mbit limit end to end, and user or supply-side upgrades modems, they will see some improvement because the network isn't just data speed, it's latency and compression, error correction, multiple connections through one line to keep constant streams going without interruption. And the ISP can do this on their natural upgrade paths, replacing the hardware within the same standard with better versions of it, and at some point, even carrier DOCSIS3.1 max certified hardware will see end-user performance improvements by using a 4.0 modem.
Similar to USB, how some devices don't need more than USB 1.1 power draws and packet depths and are still manufactured today despite (another 4.0) being on the cusp of USB 4.0 adoption. Aside from storage devices and a very select group of specific hardware, most things today still don't go beyond USB 2.0 spec. So it's going to be there just the same for DOCSIS, adoption as needed in places that need to offset network loads. Use a USB3.0 chipset, but a USB 3.1 device, there are still improvements. Bottlenecked and obviously not full capabilities, but better than the USB 3.0 certified counterpart (unless the part is built like shit to begin with, that's a constant regardless of all things).
The game isn't really changing until some form of JEDEC consortium occurs where enough influential manufacturers can agree to the true next gen memory(which affects everything). That is what *ALL* major tech standards are slowing on right now, because a few of new memory designs are a massive leap in performance over every manufactured standard we see today without requiring die shrinks to progress. ie: When DDR5 was delayed the first time, then scrapped(in all fairness, DDR5 isn't dead, it's just a name and spec, so the original draft is what was scrapped, not the name AFAIK), JEDEC committee members pushed the board to build a draft standard that will allow every corner of tech to take existing hardware specs, and get a massive boost in performance. So why would any network hardware standard get redeveloped and adopted with a minor upgrade, when refocusing for a few years will allow everyone on all layers to save trillions before committing to a full out standard. Not just $$ on constantly chasing their tails, but we're also talking about considerable drops in power consumption that go beyond anything manufactured today.
So yes, 10 years? It's a placeholder spec and standard. I think a lot of people hope JEDEC can simplify this complex path we're on, then start manufacturing those parts, shift hardware to that, and then adopt mainframe level upgrades that are more than what the start of spec promises for 2021.
For the consumer, it means that a lot of people who are just now getting upgraded speeds have a lot more homework thanks to the market being flooded with poor performing modems. Arris, Motorolla, Netgear, just brands really. They adopt and build boards on reference Intel, Broadcomm, Qualcomm, and so on create, then they customize the components. Arris has the least amount of bad modems on the market, I'll give you that. It's a safe brand, avoid the Puma6 models from everyone, and things are better.
I'm an electronics engineer, been working with a huge scope of specialty projects. In this day and age, networking is incorporated into everything. Plus, we talked before, I was a tech in the 90s for AT&T and Comcast pretty much fixing and migrating systems, one after another.
www.theverge.com
