Im going to ask this again since no one really can give a solid ansewer without skating around the question except maybe I missed dabs since he usually replies.
Great we get it, the cubs got a few specs. Ansewer the question now. Where are the rest of the specs going to come from? Regardless what some fans may think all analysts believe the cubs are setting up for 2015. So I would like to know where the specs are going to come from. Why do I ask that? the mlb roster has one piece left that can bring a haul in garza, the rest is trash (thats if castro isnt dealt) Is it going to come soley on the draft and international signings?
Also, still, wheres the starting pitching? where is that going to come from?
Garza can obviously bring in prospects, and the price for him has been pitching. Beyond him there are a lot of "ifs" and "maybe/mights" laying around.
Soriano MIGHT bring in a worthwhile spec IF he is traded this winter, IF he is traded to an AL team, IF the team absorbs all but maybe $4-6M of his remaining contract, and IF his knee doesn't turn to jello in the meantime. LaHair MIGHT bring in a middling prospect as well IF he can turn things around and look like a MLB run producer again. Barney MIGHT bring back a decent prospect IF he doesn't slip with the glove and IF he can get his BA above .275 consistently. However, Barney is an all glove little bat kind of 2B... the very type that loses his job the moment a team acquires or promotes an offensive-oriented player at his position. Castro would definitely bring back a massive haul of specs IF the team ever takes a serious look at trading him... which will only happen IF Baez develops into a solid SS and rises quickly, or the team acquires another strong SS in the process. IF Rizzo pans out, and IF Vogelbach continues to progress as he has thus far... there's a trade candidate right there. But you're looking at 2-3 years down the line.
So now, it comes down to these "If/MIGHT" scenarios... but realistically it's the draft and the international signings.
I see the same thing that you do here, Dew. There will be a boost to the farm when Garza is moved, but the rest will slowly come via drafts and int. signings. Both of those, now, have become limited due to new CBA regulations. I just don't buy into the whole "We're not going to sign FAs until blah blah blah" stuff they've been saying. There's a reason why they have cleared up the future ledgers in terms of payroll beginning next year. It's more than just to get rid of the dead weight. It's more than just to make a huge profit for a while, as the team profits quite well whether they have a $100M payroll or $40M payroll.. and they seem to profit more with the higher payrolls. Also, if you look at how the RedSox rebuilt in the late 90s, and realize that Epstein was there and had a big hand in it, you'll see that they stripped down the old ball club, made a couple of big FA signings while building up their farm system, then brought up a few of their own farm hands that panned out.... then made big trades and big FA signings to fill things out. All the while, they continued to scout and draft well...building up their farm even stronger despite losing picks for FA compensation. I'd be very surprised that Epstein doesn't follow this same sort of path here since he has very similar resources to what they had in Boston.
2015 might be what everyone is saying, and it could be accurate, but it would not surprise me to see Epstein and Hoyer make moves aimed for success beginning in 2014.
