Jaeckel Puts His .02 Into The Suter-Chicago Rumor

[tbo41fan]

HockeyBuzz.com - John Jaeckel - Suter To Chicago: More Likely Than You Think

Here’s the thing about conventional wisdom. It’s so often based on assumptions, presumptions and group-think.

So I’m going to take a myth/reality approach to this question of where Ryan Suter might be headed. The “experts” have Suter headed to Detroit, Minnesota (along with Zach Parise!), possibly Philadelphia or staying in Nashville.

My sources—including one close to the Suter Family—tell me that aside from his staying in Nashville, Chicago is a very real possibility for a number of very compelling reasons.

But my sources also tell me that nothing is settled right now. Like any top player going into unrestricted free agency, Suter is going to weigh a variety of factors and situations. Thus, I won’t photoshop Suter’s head on an Indianhead sweater right now—just as all those doing so with the Winged Wheel are maybe way out ahead of themselves. Or just wrong.

Let’s first look at who can and should pursue Suter. He’s a top defenseman with his best years ahead of him. So really, there are 30 teams who should want to add that to their team. But here’s where we start to run into flawed assumptions.

1) “Only a few teams can afford him.”

A lot of teams will be able to afford a nice offer to Suter due to expiring contracts, including Chicago. If a team moves some dollars in trade before the draft, all the more. His deal is likely going to be in the $6-$7 million a year range. A lot of teams will be able to afford him.

2) “Suter will go to Team X, because he will be a number 1 defenseman there.”

Is it more important to Suter to be the clear #1 defenseman on an average to good defense, or one of 2-3 “#1’s” on a great defense? I will tell you now, if Suter is smart and not an egomaniac, as long as he gets the money he wants, he chooses the latter over the former. Because he plays with better players, extends his own career due to better minutes and less pressure, and has a better chance of going deep in the playoffs every year.

So all those ready to pencil Suter in on this team or that, because they have (or might have) a vacancy at #1, hold on. Just because another team (like Chicago) has a clear #1 and #2 (right now), doesn’t preclude Suter from going there—in fact, it might actually make that situation more desirable.

3) “Suter will replace Nik Lidstrom in Detroit.”

This is an idea that’s gained a lot of traction among armchair GMs across the blogosphere. But it really doesn’t make a ton of actual sense.

The one advantage Detroit might have is—especially if Lidstrom retires— they will have a lot of money to throw at him. But they also really can’t afford to throw $8 or $9 million a year at Suter.

But by the end of Suter’s contract, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen and Henrik Zetterberg will all be at least 37-38 years old. One, two or all three of them might likely need to be “replaced” somehow by that time.

And even if they are still playing by then, how good will they, and therefore Detroit, still be?

So there are two issues: for Detroit, the wisdom of overspending for 4-6 years to lure Suter this summer, and for Suter, how competitive Detroit can be 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now.

But why Chicago? Well, here’s why:

1) I’m told—and others have echoed this as well— that geography, particularly proximity to Suter’s family in Madison, WI will play into his decision. If it does, then that supports bids by Minnesota and Chicago, both driveable distances from Madison. And no NHL arena is closer to Mad-Town than the United Center.

2) Suter’s entire family and Suter himself grew up as fans of . . . the Chicago Blackhawks. In fact, while Suter was a young boy, his uncle Gary played for a number of strong Blackhawk teams, and the family maintains positive ties with the organization.

3) A number of sources are saying Suter is number one on the Blackhawks’ list this summer. And the team is also in need of a big splash. When they are, they are usually willing to overspend to get their guy. Point being, the Blackhawks will likely not be outspent. Need proof? See: Campbell, B., summer 2008. And if it comes down to Minnesota and Chicago, the Hawks will actually have more money available through existing cap room and expiring contracts.

4) Finally, the agent always has a big say. And Chicago is the largest of all the markets we’ve discussed, with—unlike Detroit—a young, talented core in place and big time, national endorsement opportunities.

Further, Suter’s agent, Neil Sheehy, has one client already with the Blackhawks. And that player is . . . Nick Leddy, a favorite of GM Stan Bowman, and a player viewed by many as a young Phil Housley or Brian Campbell. Coincidentally, Leddy might well be a regular partner for Suter. The notion of career growth synergies for both players has to have crossed Sheehy’s mind.

So while I believe Suter will weigh his options, including the fact that a good friend of his plays for Minnesota and other interesting lures elsewhere, I also think once he does—and the Blackhawks make the expected strong move to sign him—he might every well end up a Blackhawk.

Conventional wisdom or no.


Thanks for reading,


JJ

 

[DewsSox79]

why post this if you dont think he has any sources?

 

[tbo41fan]

why post this if you dont think he has any sources?

to promote discussion...which obviously didnt happen. haha

 

[Everyday I'm Byfuglien]

He's been chatting up the Suter to Chicago for a while now and he's been oddly confident and very vocal about it. He's pretty much the only person doing it too (outside of Konroyd's random outburst during an intermission).

It's weird. Either he has some inside track that nobody else has caught on to... or he's just really digging for page views with a clever scenario that he has completely fabricated.

Perhaps it's a combination of both.

 

[Everyday I'm Byfuglien]

I imagine the Hawks have a decent shot at signing him. Putting them in the top 5 of possible teams seems plausible to me. It's going to cost a lot though and the Hawks don't necessarily need another big contract.


BUT, the argument for landing Suter and paying him a bunch: Brian Campbell. The Hawks were at their best when they had that 3rd big name/big minute D-man. They won the cup with Brent Sopel, Jordan Hendry and Nick Boynton filling out the 5 6 7 spots. Those guys aren't great and it shows how important having a stacked top 4 is.

Give Suter $7.5mil a year, move Hjalmarsson (which wont be hard despite what we think about him)

Keith Seabrook
Suter Leddy
Montador Hannan (UFA) Olsen

I like that.

 

[tbo41fan]

I imagine the Hawks have a decent shot at signing him. Putting them in the top 5 of possible teams seems plausible to me. It's going to cost a lot though and the Hawks don't necessarily need another big contract.


BUT, the argument for landing Suter and paying him a bunch: Brian Campbell. The Hawks were at their best when they had that 3rd big name/big minute D-man. They won the cup with Brent Sopel, Jordan Hendry and Nick Boynton filling out the 5 6 7 spots. Those guys aren't great and it shows how important having a stacked top 4 is.

Give Suter $7.5mil a year, move Hjalmarsson (which wont be hard despite what we think about him)

Keith Seabrook
Suter Leddy
Montador Hannan (UFA) Olsen

I like that.

Id be ok with this.
it was mentioned in another thread that the biggest thing about getting a suter type player would be taking the load off keith/seabrook



i still have a hard time believing suter coming to chicago,b ut i hope im wrong, obviously

 

[Everyday I'm Byfuglien]

i still have a hard time believing suter coming to chicago,b ut i hope im wrong, obviously

Yeah, I don't think it's quite as likely JJ keeps telling us. He just wont shut up about it.

But it seems like the Hawks could pull it off if they really want to (ie: pay). They've landed big free agents before- Huet, Campbell, Hossa- all it takes is a shitload of cash.

Through their ineffectiveness during these past two off seasons, they've set themselves up to make a big splash again. They have the cap space and they clearly have the need. By all accounts, Suter would be a good guy to do it with.

 

[tbo41fan]

Yeah, I don't think it's quite as likely JJ keeps telling us. He just wont shut up about it.

But it seems like the Hawks could pull it off if they really want to (ie: pay). They've landed big free agents before- Huet, Campbell, Hossa- all it takes is a shitload of cash.

Through their ineffectiveness during these past two off seasons, they've set themselves up to make a big splash again. They have the cap space and they clearly have the need. By all accounts, Suter would be a good guy to do it with.

heh.



yeah we will see...it should be interesting to see. we all thought they had the cap space last summer and their moves didnt pan out as expected

 

[DMelt36]

Al Cimaglia did write a column about a week ago saying he's heard that there are Suter-to-Chicago talks out there, so JJ isn't alone. Cimaglia was first, actually.

And I agree with every word EDIB said here:

Through their ineffectiveness during these past two off seasons, they've set themselves up to make a big splash again. They have the cap space and they clearly have the need. By all accounts, Suter would be a good guy to do it with.