you think he'll get it this year? If he keeps up his play, he sounds like an ideal candidate for it. i'm not sure who is rivals would be. channing frye?
Noah's current PER would be good for 14th in the league last year of players playing big minutes. Taking the leap from average starter to genuine all-star quality I think qualifies for most improved.
However just like he'll probably miss the all-star game for not being a scorer, he wont get the most improved either. The award normally goes to someone who gets more minutes and hence gets more shots and hence scores more points.