John Salmons: Ready for prime time?

[kukoc4ever]

Let's take a look at this guy.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/salmojo01.html


He's been in the league for 7 years.
His average PER has been 12.8.
He's had one year of above average PER (this season).

I liked his game with the Bulls as much as you all probably did. A pleasant surprise in return for the brutal Nocioni

I liked his game 6 performance very much. Without him, the series was over.

But the fact is that he's had 1 good year in the NBA, and that was only slightly above average.

The production simply has not been there.

What is it about this guy that has them convinced that he's ready for prime time?

 

[Rose1]

I think he's going to be inconsistent next year. The guy is a 31 year old perimeter player. It will be interesting to see how this upcoming season play out. I like the guy though. Johnny Salmons is a cool dude.

 

[senrad]

I agree he probably won't ever be as good as he was this season. Im interested to see if he comes off the bench or starts next to Deng next year.

 

[Rerisen]

What scares me is that Salmons may well have entered his prime this season (at 29) and already begin leaving it next year (at 30).

You can make the case that Salmons will give you similar production to Ben Gordon next season (though not necessarily the same impact) but what about the year after that, and after that? Over the next 3 or 4, its extremely likely that Ben Gordon will far outperform him.

And if he does have a great season, it would only increase his likelihood to opt out and look for a big payday.

Salmons may be "insurance for Gordon" to Paxson, but its dumb to think of him in this way. In terms of building a team around Derrick Rose, you need insurance at the position way way farther out than 1 year, and farther out than Salmons is likely to be highly productive for.

Aside all of that, John Salmons is not going to replace Ben Gordon, because we already have John Salmons. The stats of the player he will equal next year from this season's team, is himself!

The guy that would need to replace what Gordon brings, is Loul Deng. But 14 ppg and missing a bunch of games doesn't exactly replace him. Nor replaces him as our leading scorer and go-to clutch player.

 

[Shakes]

No, John Salmons being described as insurance is entirely accurate. He covers the position for a year. We have a ton of money coming off the books then, and can look to get someone else. You don't want someone long term as insurance, because if BG stays we'd then have to figure out what to do with them. With Salmons we can just let him leave if BG stays.

As for what he'll do next year is anyone's guess. Guys typically don't improve in their late 20s like he has, so there's not really anyone you can point to and say he'll follow their career path.

 

[dougthonus]

Salmons PER has crept up primarily for two reasons:
Increased usage rate
Increased efficiency

The increased usage rate is because he's finally getting a chance. The increased efficiency is largely due to his 3 point shot. Could his 3 point shot crash down to Earth again? Sure it could. However, it's also reasonable to hope that it doesn't given that a guy's shot can reasonably improve as he ages. Shooting is the one thing these guys practice constantly.

So I think it's reasonable to be fearful of Salmons matching this year given how much of an anomaly it is over previous years, but at the same time, I don't think he's going to fall through the floor either.

 

[Rerisen]

Shakes wrote:

We have a ton of money coming off the books then, and can look to get someone else.

If you look at the "Name better SG's than BG" thread, though you see the problem with this. Ben Gordon is likely to be the best SG available to us this offseason, and if he leaves, Salmons is likely to the best one available to us the following season. But I'm pretty sure we would regret giving Salmons a escalating 9 or 10m+ deal for his 31-35 years, or however long it would be.

Sure there is a list of fat free agents in 2010, but how many are going to resign? Probably a lot in this market environment. And the Bulls are looking to make a splash with a big with their money not with a SG.

Now you could overpay and get someone like Joe Johnson, who really isn't producing that much more than Gordon to begin with. But is Johnson going to be your superstar signing that carries you over the top? I don't think so. A lot of the other SG names coming up are aging (Rip, Ray Allen, Manu, Redd) these guys won't be good fits with a 21 year old Derrick Rose.

 

[Frank Breakfast Styleham]

I think he is.

Except in the event of an injury, we have every reason to expect a breakout year for him. I can't wait till next season!

 

[Shakes]

Nobody is saying Salmons for a year then try to sign someone is perfect. That's why it's insurance. You typically don't want to have to use your insurance, it's there to cushion the blow somewhat.