beckdawg
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So i'm gonna change this up slightly from past months because there's a lot more to cover. I'm probably not going to mention anyone not playing well unless they are someone notable(ie top prospect). Additionally, I want to talk briefly about DSL/Rookie league and to an extent A-. Simply put those leagues are a cluster **** from a stats perspective. For example, in the DSL you might have 21 year olds pitching against 17 year olds. So, while their stats may look good... i mean they should. So, for those leagues I'm probably just going to talk about guys who are at important positions(SS/CF/C...etc) or if someone is just utterly dominating.
Upper Minors Bats(AAA/AA)
Not much has changed here. Iowa has some pretty significant BABIP issues. This has mainly hurt Trent Giambrone, Phillip Evans and Donnie Dewees. Dixon Machado is still playing quite well(123 wRC+). Happ doesn't really look much different from the high k rate guy he's been thus far. All in all you're talking about role players or second division starters with the possible exception of Happ if he fixes his k rate issue and maybe Machado if his game translates to the majors. However, of special note is Robel Garcia. He's killing it this year with a 150 wRC+. Short version is the guy hits the ball ridiculously hard. He has 21 HR's in 68 games. The down side is he's a strike out machine. Iowa should also get Zack Short back soon. He's rehabbing in Mesa.
At AA the best hitter has been Vimael Machin who's a SS/2B. He's got a 134 wRC+. He's also spent some time in AAA. He's kind of interesting in that he's not what a lot of cubs in the majors and high minors look like. He's more of your Zobrist/Heyward/Rizzo profile of high walk rate low K rate. I personally prefer this profile. Tenn's C dueo of Jhonny Pereda and PJ Higgins have both been decent. It's always nice to have C depth. Roberto Caro has a 124 wRC+. Connor Myers is notable in that he's a CF who has a 112 wRC+. I also suspect this team will get a shot in the arm soon with Hoerner returning as he's done at least one rehab stint in mesa.
Overall, not sure you're going to pull much out of this group more than bench guys but it's honestly fine. Garcia is probably the most interesting guy right now but if I'm honest I'd trade him assuming you get the value he's worth. He's another 2B/3B guy where the cubs already have a ton and he's yet another big power high k rate guy. If a team were to ask for him as part of a trade deal for say a LH reliever I'd just cash in the gains you got because he's not exactly young either at 26. I think it's a similar story on Machado. Hell at this point, I think you'd have to consider moving Happ too were the right deal available but i wouldn't just sell him for pennies on the dollar.
Mid level Bats(A+/A)
At A+ again not much is different. Ademan is the only one with an appealing triple slash. His walk rate is up fairly significantly vs his lower minors career though his k rate has gone from pretty great to more average. Cam Balego also might be a fringe prospect. He's got a 122 wRC+ but he's 24 so keep that in mind. Amaya has a 105 wRC+ with a some what ugly triple slash. He's hitting .207 but a lot of that is his .243 BABIP. His 14.4% walk rate is fantastic and his 19.7% k rate is pretty good. Plus you don't typically expect C to hit all that much. Overall he has a 105 wRC+ Outside of that it's pretty bleak.
In A the biggest change is Davis getting called up and hitting the shit out of the ball. He's currently hitting .309/.422/.495 with 13.7%/16.2% bb/k rates for a 167 wRC+. For some perspective on how amazing that is, the #1 pick in the 2017 draft was Royce lewis who hit .315/.368/.485 with 7.3%/15% bb k rates for a 141 wRC+. I mean sure you can say it's over a limited sample(117 PAs) but Lewis only had 327 in A at 19 before being promoted. And as I've said before, the thing that was supposed to hold him back was his hit tool. He may very well be a 30/30 guy with potential gold glove defense.
Outside of Davis, Delvin Zinn isn't as good as he was but he's still sitting with a 107 wRC+. Roederer clawed his way back to a 101 wRC+ after getting hot. He also recently hit for the cycle. Tyler Durna is kind of an odd 1B. He's got a 136 wRC+ but it's not your typical 1B profile of a power hitter. He's something more like a poor man's Mark Grace. Christopher Morel has some decent scouting and is hitting for a 103 wRC+. I'm not sure what exactly to make of him. Velazquez has been hurt and hasn't been playing. Not 100% what the deal is there.
Low level Bats(Rookie/A-)
The short season leagues are a bit harder to talk about at this point. A- as an example only has ~60 PAs for hitters. DSL is little better around 100. Fernando Kelli is hitting well(146 wRC+) as a CF speedster. His 1.8%/23.2% bb/k isn't as indicative of a good sign but his BABIP is only .385. I don't think he'll be anywhere near .208 ISO so that's gonna fall. Yonathan Perlaza is kind of a similar story of a guy out playing his underlying numbers. He's got a 111 wRC+. He's mainly notable as he was one of the bigger signings from the 2015 IFA haul along with Amaya and Ademan. They should get some reinforcements soon from the college guys drafted this year. Reivaj Garcia is also someone worth noting. He's not hitting amazing ATM but he's incredibly young(17) to be in A- and BABIP is killing him right now at .192.
As for as the Mesa teams, guy is probably Fabian Pertuz. He's mostly been playing 3B but he was a SS in the DSL last year. He's hitting for a 156 wRC+ which is heavily BABIP inflated but he's a guy who hit .298/.419/.427(147 wRC+) in the DSL last year with a ton of stolen bases(36). As low level guys you can dream on go he's interesting given the speed and position with that bat. Ezequiel Pagan is an over slot 13th(?) round pick from last year. He's a CF from puerto rico who has a 111 wRC+. He hasn't shown any kind of power but obviously he's only 18. Henderson Perez is a 20 year old C. I believe he was another one of the big bonus guys from the 2015 IFA period. Catchers often take a bit longer to develop but he's hit ok the past 2 years and this year has a 121 wRC+. Luis Verdugo is a defense first SS who got a decent sized IFA bonus. He's not really hitting but a name worth considering. Pedro Martinez is the SS who moved Pertuz over to 3B. The two are kind of similar as both hit for high average and stole a ton of bases last year. Martinez isn't walking as much thus far which is the main difference but he's also kind of interesting.
For the DSL teams, I'm not going to talk about much here because as mentioned it's a cluster ****. But Yohendrick Pinango and Rafael Morel were two larger IFA signings. Morel's brother is on the south bend team. Pinango probably should be in Mesa. He's tearing the cover off the ball with a 172 wRC+(13.4%/9.3% bb/k). He's also hitting .393. Morel's been equally good but not quite as pumped up on BABIP. There's several 18/19 year olds who've had a year in the league who are performing well but I kinda wanna see more PAs to judge what they are given the sample size and competition. Only other 17 year old who's over 100 wRC+ is Ezequiel Alvarez who's a CF with a 113 wRC+ and looks to have pretty decent speed(13 SB in 19 games). He looks like he could be a similar type player to Martinez/Pertuz/Kelli. Jose Lopez is also here as one of the higher dollar IFA's from last year but he's only played in 3 games.
Summary
I'm a little conflicted today vs say the end of April. On the one hand I feel like some of the players I was hoping would take a step forward haven't really and that overall the system looks a bit weaker hitting wise than I thought it would in April. However, on the other, Davis doing what he is makes a big big difference. If he turns into the kind of hitter he is looking like thus far... i mean that's the kind of guy you build a team around. There aren't many gold glove caliber CF/RF who can hit 30 HRs and steal 30 bases. Low end you're talking about someone like a poor mans Mookie Betts if Davis can be anything like a .280-.290 hitter. I know that sounds hyperbolic but look at it this way. He's a guy who's not supposed to hit this well and he's dominating a league far above his age level when a more polished guy like Roederer took around 2 months to adjust. I suppose it's possible that there is a level at either A+ or AA that may slow him down but usually when you're this much better than guys 2 years older than you then you are really fucking good.
Outside of that there's a number of quasi-interesting international guys in mesa/dsl/a-. They are adding 3 fairly interesting IFA's as well in the next few days. They are signing the #1 C in the class, and another in the top 3 depending on who you ask as well as the #2 SS who looks like he could be a 5 tool guy. I think he's less Gleyber Torres and more Ademan or slightly better Ademan from what I've read but that's potentially the type you're talking about. They also should be adding 2019 draftees who may not have played much yet in the next few days.
So, overall I'd consider their hitting thin but there's enough interesting guys that it's not terrible especially when you consider how young they are in the majors.
Upper Minors Bats(AAA/AA)
Not much has changed here. Iowa has some pretty significant BABIP issues. This has mainly hurt Trent Giambrone, Phillip Evans and Donnie Dewees. Dixon Machado is still playing quite well(123 wRC+). Happ doesn't really look much different from the high k rate guy he's been thus far. All in all you're talking about role players or second division starters with the possible exception of Happ if he fixes his k rate issue and maybe Machado if his game translates to the majors. However, of special note is Robel Garcia. He's killing it this year with a 150 wRC+. Short version is the guy hits the ball ridiculously hard. He has 21 HR's in 68 games. The down side is he's a strike out machine. Iowa should also get Zack Short back soon. He's rehabbing in Mesa.
At AA the best hitter has been Vimael Machin who's a SS/2B. He's got a 134 wRC+. He's also spent some time in AAA. He's kind of interesting in that he's not what a lot of cubs in the majors and high minors look like. He's more of your Zobrist/Heyward/Rizzo profile of high walk rate low K rate. I personally prefer this profile. Tenn's C dueo of Jhonny Pereda and PJ Higgins have both been decent. It's always nice to have C depth. Roberto Caro has a 124 wRC+. Connor Myers is notable in that he's a CF who has a 112 wRC+. I also suspect this team will get a shot in the arm soon with Hoerner returning as he's done at least one rehab stint in mesa.
Overall, not sure you're going to pull much out of this group more than bench guys but it's honestly fine. Garcia is probably the most interesting guy right now but if I'm honest I'd trade him assuming you get the value he's worth. He's another 2B/3B guy where the cubs already have a ton and he's yet another big power high k rate guy. If a team were to ask for him as part of a trade deal for say a LH reliever I'd just cash in the gains you got because he's not exactly young either at 26. I think it's a similar story on Machado. Hell at this point, I think you'd have to consider moving Happ too were the right deal available but i wouldn't just sell him for pennies on the dollar.
Mid level Bats(A+/A)
At A+ again not much is different. Ademan is the only one with an appealing triple slash. His walk rate is up fairly significantly vs his lower minors career though his k rate has gone from pretty great to more average. Cam Balego also might be a fringe prospect. He's got a 122 wRC+ but he's 24 so keep that in mind. Amaya has a 105 wRC+ with a some what ugly triple slash. He's hitting .207 but a lot of that is his .243 BABIP. His 14.4% walk rate is fantastic and his 19.7% k rate is pretty good. Plus you don't typically expect C to hit all that much. Overall he has a 105 wRC+ Outside of that it's pretty bleak.
In A the biggest change is Davis getting called up and hitting the shit out of the ball. He's currently hitting .309/.422/.495 with 13.7%/16.2% bb/k rates for a 167 wRC+. For some perspective on how amazing that is, the #1 pick in the 2017 draft was Royce lewis who hit .315/.368/.485 with 7.3%/15% bb k rates for a 141 wRC+. I mean sure you can say it's over a limited sample(117 PAs) but Lewis only had 327 in A at 19 before being promoted. And as I've said before, the thing that was supposed to hold him back was his hit tool. He may very well be a 30/30 guy with potential gold glove defense.
Outside of Davis, Delvin Zinn isn't as good as he was but he's still sitting with a 107 wRC+. Roederer clawed his way back to a 101 wRC+ after getting hot. He also recently hit for the cycle. Tyler Durna is kind of an odd 1B. He's got a 136 wRC+ but it's not your typical 1B profile of a power hitter. He's something more like a poor man's Mark Grace. Christopher Morel has some decent scouting and is hitting for a 103 wRC+. I'm not sure what exactly to make of him. Velazquez has been hurt and hasn't been playing. Not 100% what the deal is there.
Low level Bats(Rookie/A-)
The short season leagues are a bit harder to talk about at this point. A- as an example only has ~60 PAs for hitters. DSL is little better around 100. Fernando Kelli is hitting well(146 wRC+) as a CF speedster. His 1.8%/23.2% bb/k isn't as indicative of a good sign but his BABIP is only .385. I don't think he'll be anywhere near .208 ISO so that's gonna fall. Yonathan Perlaza is kind of a similar story of a guy out playing his underlying numbers. He's got a 111 wRC+. He's mainly notable as he was one of the bigger signings from the 2015 IFA haul along with Amaya and Ademan. They should get some reinforcements soon from the college guys drafted this year. Reivaj Garcia is also someone worth noting. He's not hitting amazing ATM but he's incredibly young(17) to be in A- and BABIP is killing him right now at .192.
As for as the Mesa teams, guy is probably Fabian Pertuz. He's mostly been playing 3B but he was a SS in the DSL last year. He's hitting for a 156 wRC+ which is heavily BABIP inflated but he's a guy who hit .298/.419/.427(147 wRC+) in the DSL last year with a ton of stolen bases(36). As low level guys you can dream on go he's interesting given the speed and position with that bat. Ezequiel Pagan is an over slot 13th(?) round pick from last year. He's a CF from puerto rico who has a 111 wRC+. He hasn't shown any kind of power but obviously he's only 18. Henderson Perez is a 20 year old C. I believe he was another one of the big bonus guys from the 2015 IFA period. Catchers often take a bit longer to develop but he's hit ok the past 2 years and this year has a 121 wRC+. Luis Verdugo is a defense first SS who got a decent sized IFA bonus. He's not really hitting but a name worth considering. Pedro Martinez is the SS who moved Pertuz over to 3B. The two are kind of similar as both hit for high average and stole a ton of bases last year. Martinez isn't walking as much thus far which is the main difference but he's also kind of interesting.
For the DSL teams, I'm not going to talk about much here because as mentioned it's a cluster ****. But Yohendrick Pinango and Rafael Morel were two larger IFA signings. Morel's brother is on the south bend team. Pinango probably should be in Mesa. He's tearing the cover off the ball with a 172 wRC+(13.4%/9.3% bb/k). He's also hitting .393. Morel's been equally good but not quite as pumped up on BABIP. There's several 18/19 year olds who've had a year in the league who are performing well but I kinda wanna see more PAs to judge what they are given the sample size and competition. Only other 17 year old who's over 100 wRC+ is Ezequiel Alvarez who's a CF with a 113 wRC+ and looks to have pretty decent speed(13 SB in 19 games). He looks like he could be a similar type player to Martinez/Pertuz/Kelli. Jose Lopez is also here as one of the higher dollar IFA's from last year but he's only played in 3 games.
Summary
I'm a little conflicted today vs say the end of April. On the one hand I feel like some of the players I was hoping would take a step forward haven't really and that overall the system looks a bit weaker hitting wise than I thought it would in April. However, on the other, Davis doing what he is makes a big big difference. If he turns into the kind of hitter he is looking like thus far... i mean that's the kind of guy you build a team around. There aren't many gold glove caliber CF/RF who can hit 30 HRs and steal 30 bases. Low end you're talking about someone like a poor mans Mookie Betts if Davis can be anything like a .280-.290 hitter. I know that sounds hyperbolic but look at it this way. He's a guy who's not supposed to hit this well and he's dominating a league far above his age level when a more polished guy like Roederer took around 2 months to adjust. I suppose it's possible that there is a level at either A+ or AA that may slow him down but usually when you're this much better than guys 2 years older than you then you are really fucking good.
Outside of that there's a number of quasi-interesting international guys in mesa/dsl/a-. They are adding 3 fairly interesting IFA's as well in the next few days. They are signing the #1 C in the class, and another in the top 3 depending on who you ask as well as the #2 SS who looks like he could be a 5 tool guy. I think he's less Gleyber Torres and more Ademan or slightly better Ademan from what I've read but that's potentially the type you're talking about. They also should be adding 2019 draftees who may not have played much yet in the next few days.
So, overall I'd consider their hitting thin but there's enough interesting guys that it's not terrible especially when you consider how young they are in the majors.
