Let's talk about Rose's Assists (or lack of)

[cool007]

Okay, I was lately thinking that since a lot of people talk about how Rose doesn't get many assists or doesn't set people up for open shots etc, I was thinking I should start counting on how many passes does Rose make to his WIDE OPEN teammates that shoot bricks or miss it inside/get stripped/or blocked.

About Rose not getting many asissts. The last game against Suns was Classic example. I and my cousin decided to count on the passes that Rose makes to an open player and see how many of those are ACTUALLY converted.

Well, NOT SURPRISINGLY Rose passed to someone that was open 19 times and ONLY 5 of them were made shots and he got 5 assists - meaning 16 of those shots were missed or blocked or got stripped etc.

That actually meant on Rose's passes that were to his WIDE OPEN teamamates went 5-19 - that's HORRIBLE shooting for open shots and quite a few of them were inside the paint.

I am also not couting the ones where that player got fouled. Does it ever happen to players like Rondo/Deron/CP3 etc. And this thing happens every single freaking game.

I am going to do this in all games now and I am hoping that there is someone else like me who also can do the same so we can come back with that number and see if we are close.

 

[Dpauley23]

I'll join you in counting put the thing is Rondo/Deron and CP3 find there guys alot for open dunks or layups while Rose finds guys for open jumpshots. Still I remember him finding Tyrus 3 or so times the pass couple of games and him just getting blocked

 

[clonetrooper264]

Well when your team's offense consists of shooting 5000 long range 2's you're not going to get many assists. There needs to be something where the players cut to the basket on pick and rolls and stuff so that his passes turn into layups and dunks instead of shots just inside the 3 pt line. That's one thing about Brad Miller's passing that I like so much, his assists are usually converted into dunks/layups.

 

[cool007]

First of all, that is really overrated as far as PGs finding the guys for open layups and dunks thing - they only do it like 2-4 times a game at most and hardly few of their assists are on dunks and layups.

Also, those are on a lot of fast breaks and stuff too.

Not to mention the offensive pace, we are in the very bottom on almost all major offensive categories as well, that also affects Rose's assists.

Also, Vinny is totally not creative as well. Noah is probably THE WORST guy to use the pick and roll with but VInny goes with it like so many times that really kills Rose's chances for assists coz Noah rarely rolls to the basket nor he makes or even looks for the shot, then he would pass it to like Salmons or Deng as shot clock winds down. I freaking hate it every single time.

Then There is Gibson - who's mid range jump shot is soooooooooo overrated. He makes like 1 out of 4 and that 1 made really sticks out there in people's heads. He also doesn't get to his sweet spot so when Rose passes back to him, he can just go up and shoot it but he doesn't.

Then there is Tyrus and his turnovers and bricks.

Also, we have one of the worst finishers inside as far as big men are concerned and sadly Miller is our best at that.

 

[Shakes]

I don't really buy into it being the team holding Rose's assist numbers back too much. He has around the same assist rate as Kirk did when Kirk was the starting PG. Do you think you put Kirk on the Suns, Jazz or Hornets he becomes Nash, Williams or Paul? I sure don't, so I don't see why you think it applies to Rose. You also can't use this year's team as an excuse: Rose's assist rate has gone up from last year, when he played on the best offensive Bulls team in a decade. If anything Noah's offensive improvements help Rose's assist totals more than the falloff from outside hurts them.

The reason Rose doesn't have great assist totals (and probably never will) is because he's a score first point guard. Thankfully he's started to embrace the idea he needs to score for the team to win and he's now looking like an all-star.

 

[TheStig]

Shakes, I think its half and half. Rose's supporting cast is really bad at finishing. I don't know how you can say otherwise with Kirk and Salmons bricks early in the season. But he isn't a traditional pass first pg, so a lower assist number is a given but I don't see how he doesn't average at least a couple more assists per game with a better finishing pf and sg.

 

[Shakes]

I think you're over-inflating the number of assists he's missing. There just isn't that big a difference between teams in the number of field goals they make a game.

Put it this way, Rose has assisted 16% of the Bulls field goals this season. Even if you put him on the Suns (easily the league leaders in made field goals), 16% of their field goals is 6.5 assists a game. I just don't see how anyone can think Rose is an 8 assist a game player on any team.

BTW I also don't see why anyone should care, assists are pretty much a meaningless stat. Atlanta is the third best offense in the league and Mike Bibby is way less of a pure point than even Rose.

 

[houheffna]

I think you're over-inflating the number of assists he's missing. There just isn't that big a difference between teams in the number of field goals they make a game.

Put it this way, Rose has assisted 16% of the Bulls field goals this season. Even if you put him on the Suns (easily the league leaders in made field goals), 16% of their field goals is 6.5 assists a game. I just don't see how anyone can think Rose is an 8 assist a game player on any team.

BTW I also don't see why anyone should care, assists are pretty much a meaningless stat. Atlanta is the third best offense in the league and Mike Bibby is way less of a pure point than even Rose.

I agree, I believe that the stat watching is unnecessary. What is important is the players' ability to hit shots to create space for Rose to penetrate to the basket at will, not blaming Salmons and Hinrich for not hitting shots to pad Rose's stats. Expanding the offense is most important. Rose is more of a Hardaway type pg than Stockton...Rose is going to have to have a score first mentality. His assists rate is not indicative necessarily of how close this team will be to a championship.

 

[RC_Skinny22]

houheffna wrote:

What is important is the players' ability to hit shots to create space for Rose to penetrate to the basket at will, not blaming Salmons and Hinrich for not hitting shots to pad Rose's stats.

Doesn´t it lead to the same? :huh:

 

[TheStig]

Shakes wrote:

I think you're over-inflating the number of assists he's missing. There just isn't that big a difference between teams in the number of field goals they make a game.

Put it this way, Rose has assisted 16% of the Bulls field goals this season. Even if you put him on the Suns (easily the league leaders in made field goals), 16% of their field goals is 6.5 assists a game. I just don't see how anyone can think Rose is an 8 assist a game player on any team.

BTW I also don't see why anyone should care, assists are pretty much a meaningless stat. Atlanta is the third best offense in the league and Mike Bibby is way less of a pure point than even Rose.

But thats just the argument. Assist rate is dependent on his teammates. If he had better teammates his assist rate would naturally go up. You only adjusted for pace. Phoenix shoots nearly 5% better from the field than we do and plays at a faster pace generating more shots. Phoenix also looks to Nash to create more. Derrick gets a lot of shots but you can't run a good pick and roll with TT, Taj or Noah, so he doesn't get the easy assists that Nash and Williams do. Rose has to create most of his opportunity off the dribble usaully with another defender waiting for him at the basket. I am also sure that Phoenix's players are much better finishing with the ball than ours with open shots. They don't miss that many open shots, just go back to the clank fest at the beginning of the year.

 

[pinkizdead]

rose is a bad passer at times. he tends to throw a pass that the other guy basically has to jump for. chris paul is a really good passer. i think that has to be factored in.

 

[houheffna]

Doesn´t it lead to the same?

No...not necessarily. Over the weekend Rose had 9 assists in 2 games combined...Hinrich and Salmons both played reasonably well and I believe Hinrich got more assists...so I don't think this is anything to worry about.

 

[Shakes]

TheStig wrote:

But thats just the argument. Assist rate is dependent on his teammates. If he had better teammates his assist rate would naturally go up. You only adjusted for pace. Phoenix shoots nearly 5% better from the field than we do and plays at a faster pace generating more shots. Phoenix also looks to Nash to create more. Derrick gets a lot of shots but you can't run a good pick and roll with TT, Taj or Noah, so he doesn't get the easy assists that Nash and Williams do. Rose has to create most of his opportunity off the dribble usaully with another defender waiting for him at the basket. I am also sure that Phoenix's players are much better finishing with the ball than ours with open shots. They don't miss that many open shots, just go back to the clank fest at the beginning of the year.

I'm not just adjusting for pace, I'm adjusting for made field goals. Phoenix only make 4 more field goals a game than the Bulls. Given Rose assists 16% of made field goals on the Bulls, I don't see any reason to assume he's assisting on 50% of the misses, which would be necessary to assume he'd get 2 assists off those extra 4 field goals the Suns make.

As far as Phoenix looking to Nash to create more, they look to him because he can do it. Rose simply can't, and I don't think that's just my opinion, it's the opinion of the coaches of the teams we play. Since Rose started being a scoring threat teams aren't just doubling him at the basket anymore, they're sending that second man earlier and earlier. You don't do that to Nash because you know he'll kill you. You can do it to Rose, and when you do, he'll either beat them both and score anyway, or get himself trapped and throw some awkward pass out of it which means we need to reset our offense.

Anyway, I'm going to throw out these numbers that hopefully show how pointless this debate is: 3.2, 5.1, 5.5, 4.9, 6.1, 5.7, 5.3, 2.6, 4.4, 3.4. The APG of the last 10 championship point guards.

 

[clonetrooper264]

If Boston won the championship this year, Rondo would be averaging like 8-10 apg. Teammates to play a factor. But it's not really that big a deal. What matters is the points, not whether they were assisted or not.

 

[TheStig]

Shakes wrote:

TheStig wrote:

But thats just the argument. Assist rate is dependent on his teammates. If he had better teammates his assist rate would naturally go up. You only adjusted for pace. Phoenix shoots nearly 5% better from the field than we do and plays at a faster pace generating more shots. Phoenix also looks to Nash to create more. Derrick gets a lot of shots but you can't run a good pick and roll with TT, Taj or Noah, so he doesn't get the easy assists that Nash and Williams do. Rose has to create most of his opportunity off the dribble usaully with another defender waiting for him at the basket. I am also sure that Phoenix's players are much better finishing with the ball than ours with open shots. They don't miss that many open shots, just go back to the clank fest at the beginning of the year.

I'm not just adjusting for pace, I'm adjusting for made field goals. Phoenix only make 4 more field goals a game than the Bulls. Given Rose assists 16% of made field goals on the Bulls, I don't see any reason to assume he's assisting on 50% of the misses, which would be necessary to assume he'd get 2 assists off those extra 4 field goals the Suns make.

As far as Phoenix looking to Nash to create more, they look to him because he can do it. Rose simply can't, and I don't think that's just my opinion, it's the opinion of the coaches of the teams we play. Since Rose started being a scoring threat teams aren't just doubling him at the basket anymore, they're sending that second man earlier and earlier. You don't do that to Nash because you know he'll kill you. You can do it to Rose, and when you do, he'll either beat them both and score anyway, or get himself trapped and throw some awkward pass out of it which means we need to reset our offense.

Anyway, I'm going to throw out these numbers that hopefully show how pointless this debate is: 3.2, 5.1, 5.5, 4.9, 6.1, 5.7, 5.3, 2.6, 4.4, 3.4. The APG of the last 10 championship point guards.

I agree with some of what your saying but I am not trying to say he will average 10+ apg like paul or nash but I think he should be in that range of guys below him. He is averaging 6.5apg in Jan, if you swap Taj for Amare or Boozer, he will easily get at least another apg. I don't see any problems with him being around that 8 range. I mean Russel Westbrook gets 7.5, there is no reason that Rose can't average that.

Those numbers are nice but many of those titles weren't won with a pg being the best or second best player on the team like Rose would be here. Billups and Parker are the only ones that come to mind and Parker had Duncan.

 

[Hendu0520]

I will count, and I will try and count a few games of Paul's and DWill's as well. The lack of assists for Rose stems more from his players taking bad percentage shots over good ones. Salmons and Hinrich have been shooting much better lately and Rose's assists haven't really gone up.

The problem is that other than Deng, the Bulls have no spot up shooters Hinrich and Salmons ALWAYS have to dribble. The Hornets on the other hand know, if CP3 gives you a pass that is probably your best percentage shot, so they take it. Peja couldn't dribble if he tried so he just launches as soon as he gets it.

So in the Phoenix game you can add to the 19 passes about 6 more assists that another Bull player passed up a wide open shot to dribble into 2 defenders and take a much worse shot.

I am sure this happens to the other elite PG's some but most teams understand that their PG is setting them up for the best shot and after he gets doubled the open guy should shoot. SOMEHOW VDN CAN'T GET THIS THROUGH HIS PLAYER'S HEADS, SHOOT WHEN ROSE PASSES IT, IT IS MOST LIKELY YOUR BEST SHOT, HE JUST GOT DOUBLED!

In reality Shakes is right, his assists don't matter and I don't think he will ever win an assists title, but what PG EVER, could do that 2 handed TOMAHAWK SLAM like he did in Phoenix. Rose will be the best PG in the league in 2 years, assists or not!

 

[Shakes]

I look at it this way, if choosing between 25/5 or 15/15 at the same percentage, I'd easily take the 25 points. I really think Rose can be a 25 PPG scorer the way he's playing lately, and those are gold. Who cares about what position he plays and whether PGs "should" be getting assists? If anything a PG who is a scorer is a bonus, because PG and C are the hardest positions to find scorers at.