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Mac Jones might make sense in the top 10
BY CIAN FAHEY
@QBDataMine
Alabama might go back-to-back first-round picks at quarterback. Jalen Hurts, who was also an Alabama starting quarterback at one point, went in the second round last year too.
Prior to this group, you've got to go all the way back to Ken Stabler in 1967 to find a real quarterback of great significance.
Nick Saban has produced a large number of quality NFL players from his teams over the last decade but none of his quarterbacks have done anything in the NFL. A.J. McCarron talked himself up at draft time but had a predictable career as a backup.
The change in Alabama's offensive philosophy since McCarron helped to produce Hurts and Tagovailoa. And now Mac Jones looks set to add to the recent string of success.
Jones will be a first round pick. He might be a top-10 pick but he's being discussed as the last of the top tier, more likely to be selected in the teens than the top five. Considering the skill set he's bringing, it might benefit Jones to fall as far as he can within the first round.
Alabama were successful with Jones while having a typically talented Alabama-calibre roster. That undoubtedly made it easier for him to put up numbers.
Those types of rosters have previously elevated the status of the likes of McCarron. Alabama have won National Championships without high-end quarterback play. They've instead relied on the likes of Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram behind strong offensive lines.
While Mac Jones' supporting cast was clearly very strong, he was by no means carried by his teammates.
When Andy Dalton was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals, he arrived to a smart coaching staff with a strong supporting cast on offence. A.J. Green was the team's first round pick that year, so that obviously helped, but Dalton became an immediate starter and successor to Carson Palmer because of how he matched with his new team.
He was an athletic quarterback who made strong pre-snap reads and got the ball out quickly. Was he ever a great quarterback? No, but he was instantly a respectable NFL starter and had the awareness and comfort level to play at that level early in his career.
Jones is a very intelligent quarterback based on his college tape.
This play is a great example of that. He has some time in the pocket because the defensive end on the left side crashes to the inside and is stopped there. Jones senses what's happening around him and slides left, which puts him further away from the edge rusher coming around the far side.
He watches his crossing route coming from his left to his right, which leads the safety to come forward onto him and holds the linebacker over the middle. Then, so instantly that his actions had to be purposeful, at the perfect time he turned and hit his crossing route going in the opposite direction.
This isn't a wide open throw because of the quality of the receiver's route. It's a wide open throw because it's a well-executed play design perfectly diagnosed and timed out by the quarterback.
You see a lot of this with Alabama. There are obvious some benefits working in his favour but a lot of the time he was elevating those around him as well.
This play runs at half speed. We can see Jones look to the flat initially, which encourages the slot defender to come forward and anticipate a bubble screen with the slot receiver blocking for the flat receiver. But that slot receiver is running past the slot cornerback to the near pylon.
His wheel route isn't of concern to Jones until he's looked to the slant. He has to make sure the cornerback outside and the safety to that side of the field both respect the slant before he can look to the wheel.
If we watch Jones just before he begins his throwing motion, we can see his posture is for the slant. He opens up to the wider throw by resetting his foot and bringing his left shoulder a little inside to then release the ball.
That's a very subtle movement but it's a sign of a quarterback executing at a very high level.
Here's a more aggressive version of the same thing. This play runs at full speed so you'll have to watch it a few times to track everything that happens. It's another fairly basic route combination with two crossing routes pulling defenders in diferent directions.
You can see how Jones stays on the receiver going left to right before turning dramatically back to his receiver going right to left late. His posture and eye movement led to three defenders going with the first crossing route.
Nobody covered the other crossing route. The separation here has nothing to do with the quality of the receiver. The speed of both receivers helped to stress the coverage but it's Jones awareness, timing and pocket movement that leads to the wide open throw.
On the broadcast angle, it would be easy to see these plays and just assume it's a quarterback playing in an offence that makes everything simple for him. That's really not the case.
A lot of the time he's executing simple (or rather non-highlight) things at a very high level.
This throw is a perfect example. The receiver runs a good route and his speed is impressive. It's a wide-open throw from a clean pocket. But the receiver is wide open partly because of the perfect timing of Jones' pump fake. He then doesn't rush the ball out. He resets to make sure that he hits the throw perfectly.
Jones knew his receiver wasn't going to be recovered as soon as the safety took one wrong step. He was calm and the result was the easy completion.
Easy completions come about through scheme or supporting cast and sometimes they come about because of the level of quarterback play. Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees are the greatest examples of this. They all have highlight throws but none of them built their careers on highlight throws.
Jones' accuracy isn't a major concern. He had some ugly misses over the games I watched but he was mostly a very efficient passer. He's not going to make precision throws into tight windows like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson but his skill set should allow him to avoid those types of throws more often than not.
This is a great play to highlight Jones' poise and understanding of leverage. He sees his wheel route open early. The instinct here is to rush the ball out, lay it out deep for the receiver to run underneath. If he does that, the safety intercepts it.
Instead, Jones sees his receiver open but takes a beat to see the safety as well. He throws the ball hard and to his receiver's body so as to not lead him into the safety. This is not an easy throw. It's not the throw he expected to make either but he recognized the coverage and got the ball out.
Furthermore, if you keep your eyes on the quarterback, you can see him take a hit immediately after the ball comes out.
Although he got a lot of good pockets, Jones also consistently made smart, difficult plays against pressure.
Jones hasn't just learned what coverages are and where he's supposed to go based on the coverage he sees. He has an innate feeling and understanding of how plays are going to develop. His spatial awareness and anticipation is top class.
This might be the best play any college quarterback made last year. The four-man rush for the defence wins up the middle. The coverage is perfect as they anticipated outside routes. This play is dead. The defence has a defender on top of the quarterback and nobody is open.
Jones pumps outside seeing that it's covered. He then resets up into the middle of the pocket wanting to hit the corner route. The corner route is double-covered.
But he sees two defenders with their backs to him. The underneath defender on the corner route and the the flat defender who took away the curl route intiially. Jones has pressure in his face but like a wing shooter cutting to the basket at the last minute, his receiver takes a step inside and Jones can envision the throw into his path.
He perfectly flights the ball and places it so it's equidistant between the two defenders who are looking away from it.
Mentally, Jones is very promising. He has some issues to correct but they're not really red flags as much as they are signs of inexperience.
On occasion, Jones will predetermine his read and force the ball to the wrong receiver. This is the best example of this trait as he forces the first crossing route and doesn't come off it to find the second crossing route that is wide open. He should have recognized this because of the pressure coming from that area of the field.
But as quarterbacks are wont to do on occasion, he stiffened up against the pressure.
That's not standard for him at least. He's generally very good against pressure.
This deep dime comes with a defender in his face as the ball comes out.
This is a similar throw where the ball comes out quickly against an arriving blitz.
This is a very intelligent play where Jones comes off his first option and locates his mismatch on the opposite side of the field. He has to speed up his process here as his right tackle blows his assignment in protection. Jones actually steps toward the free rusher because he has to avoid the pass rush coming from the opposite side.
He sets himself up to be hit in order to buy enough time to get the ball out cleanly. It's a really, really high-level play. The throw isn't perfect but there are plenty of examples of Jones throwing perfect deep balls.
In general, he's consistently accurate to every level of the field without being especially impressive at any level. He has no singular great trait when it comes to accuracy. You're not going to build an offence to attack specific areas of the field, you're going to trust him to be above-average to every level of the field.
That can actually be tougher for defences to stop.
Jones' comfort and poise comes from his footwork. He has very active feet. He not only senses pressure, he often reacts to it exactly as you would want him to. This play sees the edges on both sides collapse but he steps up into the center of the pocket while keeping his eyes upfield.
That allows him to then make a touch throw for the touchdown.
Resetting within the pocket is vital. Jones does it very, very well a lot of the time. But he also has very active feet. Most quarterbacks have very inactive feet and need to be taught how to move them consistently. Jones needs to have his feet reigned in. That's not really a negative because it's easier to do that than uproot the feet of a Carson Wentz for example.
Early in his career, Jones' movement will create sacks and invite pressure. It'll probably still work out in his favour overall but it's another area that needs to improve.
This sack is completely on Jones. The defender who pushes his way into the pocket can be avoided if he just stays in his initial spot or steps to his right. Instead, he steps forward and to the left, directly into the line the defender was taking.
He doesn't get sacked on this play, but here you can see the overactive feet being a negative. He jumps to his right and back to his left before letting his feet go flat to overthrow his checkdown. It's a simple throw that is only missed because of the imbalance created by the overactivity in his lower body.
Should Jones fall to late in the first round, he'll be great value for a team such as the New England Patriots who are just looking for someone to solidify their starting spot. If he goes to a team chasing a superstar or someone who needs to work with a limited receiving corps, he'll probably struggle.
If he ever becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL it will be a surprise. But he could start for 10 years without much complaint from his team's fanbase.
Now could you argue for him to be the third overall pick? It's not crazy even if he ultimately winds up 10 spots lower than that.
BY CIAN FAHEY
@QBDataMine
Alabama might go back-to-back first-round picks at quarterback. Jalen Hurts, who was also an Alabama starting quarterback at one point, went in the second round last year too.
Prior to this group, you've got to go all the way back to Ken Stabler in 1967 to find a real quarterback of great significance.
Nick Saban has produced a large number of quality NFL players from his teams over the last decade but none of his quarterbacks have done anything in the NFL. A.J. McCarron talked himself up at draft time but had a predictable career as a backup.
The change in Alabama's offensive philosophy since McCarron helped to produce Hurts and Tagovailoa. And now Mac Jones looks set to add to the recent string of success.
Jones will be a first round pick. He might be a top-10 pick but he's being discussed as the last of the top tier, more likely to be selected in the teens than the top five. Considering the skill set he's bringing, it might benefit Jones to fall as far as he can within the first round.
Alabama were successful with Jones while having a typically talented Alabama-calibre roster. That undoubtedly made it easier for him to put up numbers.
Those types of rosters have previously elevated the status of the likes of McCarron. Alabama have won National Championships without high-end quarterback play. They've instead relied on the likes of Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram behind strong offensive lines.
While Mac Jones' supporting cast was clearly very strong, he was by no means carried by his teammates.
When Andy Dalton was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals, he arrived to a smart coaching staff with a strong supporting cast on offence. A.J. Green was the team's first round pick that year, so that obviously helped, but Dalton became an immediate starter and successor to Carson Palmer because of how he matched with his new team.
He was an athletic quarterback who made strong pre-snap reads and got the ball out quickly. Was he ever a great quarterback? No, but he was instantly a respectable NFL starter and had the awareness and comfort level to play at that level early in his career.
Jones is a very intelligent quarterback based on his college tape.
This play is a great example of that. He has some time in the pocket because the defensive end on the left side crashes to the inside and is stopped there. Jones senses what's happening around him and slides left, which puts him further away from the edge rusher coming around the far side.
He watches his crossing route coming from his left to his right, which leads the safety to come forward onto him and holds the linebacker over the middle. Then, so instantly that his actions had to be purposeful, at the perfect time he turned and hit his crossing route going in the opposite direction.
This isn't a wide open throw because of the quality of the receiver's route. It's a wide open throw because it's a well-executed play design perfectly diagnosed and timed out by the quarterback.
You see a lot of this with Alabama. There are obvious some benefits working in his favour but a lot of the time he was elevating those around him as well.
This play runs at half speed. We can see Jones look to the flat initially, which encourages the slot defender to come forward and anticipate a bubble screen with the slot receiver blocking for the flat receiver. But that slot receiver is running past the slot cornerback to the near pylon.
His wheel route isn't of concern to Jones until he's looked to the slant. He has to make sure the cornerback outside and the safety to that side of the field both respect the slant before he can look to the wheel.
If we watch Jones just before he begins his throwing motion, we can see his posture is for the slant. He opens up to the wider throw by resetting his foot and bringing his left shoulder a little inside to then release the ball.
That's a very subtle movement but it's a sign of a quarterback executing at a very high level.
Here's a more aggressive version of the same thing. This play runs at full speed so you'll have to watch it a few times to track everything that happens. It's another fairly basic route combination with two crossing routes pulling defenders in diferent directions.
You can see how Jones stays on the receiver going left to right before turning dramatically back to his receiver going right to left late. His posture and eye movement led to three defenders going with the first crossing route.
Nobody covered the other crossing route. The separation here has nothing to do with the quality of the receiver. The speed of both receivers helped to stress the coverage but it's Jones awareness, timing and pocket movement that leads to the wide open throw.
On the broadcast angle, it would be easy to see these plays and just assume it's a quarterback playing in an offence that makes everything simple for him. That's really not the case.
A lot of the time he's executing simple (or rather non-highlight) things at a very high level.
This throw is a perfect example. The receiver runs a good route and his speed is impressive. It's a wide-open throw from a clean pocket. But the receiver is wide open partly because of the perfect timing of Jones' pump fake. He then doesn't rush the ball out. He resets to make sure that he hits the throw perfectly.
Jones knew his receiver wasn't going to be recovered as soon as the safety took one wrong step. He was calm and the result was the easy completion.
Easy completions come about through scheme or supporting cast and sometimes they come about because of the level of quarterback play. Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees are the greatest examples of this. They all have highlight throws but none of them built their careers on highlight throws.
Jones' accuracy isn't a major concern. He had some ugly misses over the games I watched but he was mostly a very efficient passer. He's not going to make precision throws into tight windows like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson but his skill set should allow him to avoid those types of throws more often than not.
This is a great play to highlight Jones' poise and understanding of leverage. He sees his wheel route open early. The instinct here is to rush the ball out, lay it out deep for the receiver to run underneath. If he does that, the safety intercepts it.
Instead, Jones sees his receiver open but takes a beat to see the safety as well. He throws the ball hard and to his receiver's body so as to not lead him into the safety. This is not an easy throw. It's not the throw he expected to make either but he recognized the coverage and got the ball out.
Furthermore, if you keep your eyes on the quarterback, you can see him take a hit immediately after the ball comes out.
Although he got a lot of good pockets, Jones also consistently made smart, difficult plays against pressure.
Jones hasn't just learned what coverages are and where he's supposed to go based on the coverage he sees. He has an innate feeling and understanding of how plays are going to develop. His spatial awareness and anticipation is top class.
This might be the best play any college quarterback made last year. The four-man rush for the defence wins up the middle. The coverage is perfect as they anticipated outside routes. This play is dead. The defence has a defender on top of the quarterback and nobody is open.
Jones pumps outside seeing that it's covered. He then resets up into the middle of the pocket wanting to hit the corner route. The corner route is double-covered.
But he sees two defenders with their backs to him. The underneath defender on the corner route and the the flat defender who took away the curl route intiially. Jones has pressure in his face but like a wing shooter cutting to the basket at the last minute, his receiver takes a step inside and Jones can envision the throw into his path.
He perfectly flights the ball and places it so it's equidistant between the two defenders who are looking away from it.
Mentally, Jones is very promising. He has some issues to correct but they're not really red flags as much as they are signs of inexperience.
On occasion, Jones will predetermine his read and force the ball to the wrong receiver. This is the best example of this trait as he forces the first crossing route and doesn't come off it to find the second crossing route that is wide open. He should have recognized this because of the pressure coming from that area of the field.
But as quarterbacks are wont to do on occasion, he stiffened up against the pressure.
That's not standard for him at least. He's generally very good against pressure.
This deep dime comes with a defender in his face as the ball comes out.
This is a similar throw where the ball comes out quickly against an arriving blitz.
This is a very intelligent play where Jones comes off his first option and locates his mismatch on the opposite side of the field. He has to speed up his process here as his right tackle blows his assignment in protection. Jones actually steps toward the free rusher because he has to avoid the pass rush coming from the opposite side.
He sets himself up to be hit in order to buy enough time to get the ball out cleanly. It's a really, really high-level play. The throw isn't perfect but there are plenty of examples of Jones throwing perfect deep balls.
In general, he's consistently accurate to every level of the field without being especially impressive at any level. He has no singular great trait when it comes to accuracy. You're not going to build an offence to attack specific areas of the field, you're going to trust him to be above-average to every level of the field.
That can actually be tougher for defences to stop.
Jones' comfort and poise comes from his footwork. He has very active feet. He not only senses pressure, he often reacts to it exactly as you would want him to. This play sees the edges on both sides collapse but he steps up into the center of the pocket while keeping his eyes upfield.
That allows him to then make a touch throw for the touchdown.
Resetting within the pocket is vital. Jones does it very, very well a lot of the time. But he also has very active feet. Most quarterbacks have very inactive feet and need to be taught how to move them consistently. Jones needs to have his feet reigned in. That's not really a negative because it's easier to do that than uproot the feet of a Carson Wentz for example.
Early in his career, Jones' movement will create sacks and invite pressure. It'll probably still work out in his favour overall but it's another area that needs to improve.
This sack is completely on Jones. The defender who pushes his way into the pocket can be avoided if he just stays in his initial spot or steps to his right. Instead, he steps forward and to the left, directly into the line the defender was taking.
He doesn't get sacked on this play, but here you can see the overactive feet being a negative. He jumps to his right and back to his left before letting his feet go flat to overthrow his checkdown. It's a simple throw that is only missed because of the imbalance created by the overactivity in his lower body.
Should Jones fall to late in the first round, he'll be great value for a team such as the New England Patriots who are just looking for someone to solidify their starting spot. If he goes to a team chasing a superstar or someone who needs to work with a limited receiving corps, he'll probably struggle.
If he ever becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL it will be a surprise. But he could start for 10 years without much complaint from his team's fanbase.
Now could you argue for him to be the third overall pick? It's not crazy even if he ultimately winds up 10 spots lower than that.
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I say this all the time. They are all unique and difficult to project due to the complexities of the position.
