MLB draft is thursday

beckdawg

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Likely going to be boring for the cubs given their lack of first and second round picks. I think their first pick is 102 or 104.... something like that. And that also gives them the lowest draft pool in the majors. What I imagine the cubs do is probably go hard on a lot of college seniors below slot and try to push all that remaining bonus into one over slot guy. Some have suggested the cubs might have an advantage in the later rounds given they don't have to focus on the top 100 players given that's generally where teams spend a lot of effort to make sure they get the top of the draft right.

Here's BA's top 500 prospects
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/
 

beckdawg

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So cards just took Delvin Perez who was popped for PED usage. Before that he was considered a top 10 prospect in the draft but they got him 23rd.
 

JP Hochbaum

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the White Sox appear to have drafted a similar player to Schwarber. Great hitter and patience but needs lots of work behind the plate.
 

CSF77

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Day 2 of the 2016 MLB Draft consists of Rounds 3-10. Follow every Cubs pick live.

The Draft concludes on Saturday, with exclusive coverage of Rounds 11-40 beginning on MLB.com at noon CT.


Third round (No. 104 overall): RHP Tom Hatch, Oklahoma State
Hatch is a horse. The 6-foot-1, 200-pound right-hander tossed three consecutive shutouts this spring to earn Big 12 Pitcher of the Year honors. That stretch, as well as a season in which he went 7-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 16 starts, alleviated concerns after he missed all of 2015 with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament that didn't require surgery.

The biggest change in Hatch this season was dropping his arm slot to low three-quarters, rather than over the top. The adjustment added life to his stuff, which consists of a fastball that sits 91-94 mph, a slider that can be plus and a solid changeup for which he has great feel.

"The impressive thing for Thomas, I mean he had to change his delivery and change his arm slot to do some things to free his arm up so it would stay healthy and he wasn't muscling the ball and those types of things," Oklahoma State pitching coach Rob Walton told Baseball America earlier this month. "He deserves a lot of credit for maintaining that new delivery for the first time."
 

CSF77

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Kid might be the best power pitch prototype I've seen so far from their picks. Ceace was another but he dropped while on the mend and you didn't know what to expect.

So I'm thinking with the Cubs starting round 3 this year they will end up drafting arms heavy and by the look power arms.
 

beckdawg

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Cubs have taken a number of big RHP. Their 3rd round pick Hatch is only 6'1. But 4th round pick Tyson Miller is 6'4 195, 5th round pick Bailey Clark is 6'4 220, 6th round pick Chad Hocking is 6'4 210, 8th round pick Stephen Ridding is 6'8 220, 9th round pick Duncan Robinson is 6'6 220 and 10th round pick Dakota Mekkes is 6'7 250.

Mekkes is pretty intriguing as he had a 14.22 k/9 over 69 innings and is only 21. His BB/9 could use some work though(6.26). Robinson looks statistically like your Ryan Williams/Jeremy Null type at 7.64 k/9 and 1.80 bb/9 and a 22 year old. Bailey clark had 8.93 k/9 and 3.79 bb/9 at Duke and is 20. Hatch is at 7.86 k/9 and 2.68 bb/9 and is 21. Hocking is at 7.43 k/9 and 2.43 bb/9 and is 21. As for Michael Cruz, he looks like a decent hitting C. He hit .325/.461/.605 at Bethune-Cookman.

Couldn't quickly find stats on Miller and Riddings. Overall, given the way the scouting reports talk about these various guys it seems like they are pretty standard high floor types rather than high ceiling. Granted you're not going to find high ceiling high floor types in the third round but you can often go with risky arms who have higher ceiling. Then again that's been the cubs MO since they got Theo so that's not too surprising.
 

chibears55

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What with all the RH college pitchers?

Were there no Lefties good enough?

Are they planning to fast track these guys?

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beckdawg

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What with all the RH college pitchers?

Were there no Lefties good enough?

Are they planning to fast track these guys?

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I'm not 100% on all the draft guys so I can't tell you how deep the draft was for lefties but I think I can reasonably answer the second question. There's a couple of reaosns you go college pitchers. The first reason is they are more projectable. High school players are all over the place but pitchers in general can be dangerous. The second reason is that as you mentioned they are closer to the majors. A high school player might take 5 years where you can usually get a college player there in 3-ish. But lastly and probably most poignant, often college pitchers have little choice. High school pitchers can always decline your offer and go to college. So, often times what teams will do is draft college seniors who really have no leverage in negotiations. The team probably likes the guy some what but the real motivation is to free up money for more talented players as that is a limited commodity. Now, not all of these guys are college seniors. Hell not all of them are even college juniors as one is a sophomore. But that's likely the idea.

Also, for what it's worth, I'm not sure you can even talk about fast tracking any of these players. Most of the time if a 3rd round pick reaches the majors at all you're happy. Generally speaking the talent just isn't there to fast track a player. With that being said, a player can be better than people thought and essentially fast track himself. Ryan Williams did this.
 

CSF77

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I'm not 100% on all the draft guys so I can't tell you how deep the draft was for lefties but I think I can reasonably answer the second question. There's a couple of reaosns you go college pitchers. The first reason is they are more projectable. High school players are all over the place but pitchers in general can be dangerous. The second reason is that as you mentioned they are closer to the majors. A high school player might take 5 years where you can usually get a college player there in 3-ish. But lastly and probably most poignant, often college pitchers have little choice. High school pitchers can always decline your offer and go to college. So, often times what teams will do is draft college seniors who really have no leverage in negotiations. The team probably likes the guy some what but the real motivation is to free up money for more talented players as that is a limited commodity. Now, not all of these guys are college seniors. Hell not all of them are even college juniors as one is a sophomore. But that's likely the idea.

Also, for what it's worth, I'm not sure you can even talk about fast tracking any of these players. Most of the time if a 3rd round pick reaches the majors at all you're happy. Generally speaking the talent just isn't there to fast track a player. With that being said, a player can be better than people thought and essentially fast track himself. Ryan Williams did this.

They are now in a winning window and the system is lacking in quality arms.

When they first started they went h.s. Due to the window opening down the road.

So sense of urgency more than anything.
 

chibears55

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They are now in a winning window and the system is lacking in quality arms.

When they first started they went h.s. Due to the window opening down the road.

So sense of urgency more than anything.
I can see it both ways..
College kids that are signable and playing the odds of hoping that of the 7 that maybe 1 or 2 can emerge as a MLB starter in 1-3 yrs and a few as a reliever ..
Plus maybe one or two can be used in a trade now.





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beckdawg

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I read up a bit more about the cubs draftees. Sounds like they have slightly more upside than I originally thought. However, a number of them have injury risks and even then the best of them upside wise was like a #2 starter if everything goes right. That's not to suggest I dislike what they did. Really with the money they had to spend you can't do a whole lot. You either take low ceiling players or gamble a bit. And given they weren't really concerned with the top of the draft they probably had a good look at most of these guys.
 

beckdawg

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Today's picks thus far

Michael Rucker who's a 6'1 RHP SR from BYU
Trey Cobb who's a 6'1 RHP JR from Ok St.(BA had him 335 overall)
Wyatt Short who's a 5'8 LHP JR from Miss
Parker Dunshee who's a 6'1 RHP JR from Wake Forrest
Jed Carter who's a 6' RHP JR from Auburn U Montgomery
Holden Cammack who's a 6' RHP JR from Oral Roberts U
Zack Short who's a JR SS from Sacred Heart U
Marc Huberman who's a 6'2 LHP SR from USC
Matt Swarmer who's a 6'5 RHP SR from Kutztown University
Garrett Freeman who's a 6'1 LHP SR from U Alabama Tuscaloosa
Samuel Tidaback who's a SR C from U North Georgia
Dante Biasi who's a 6'0 LHP from Hazleton Area HS
Delvin Zinn SS out of Itawamba JC(BA had him ranked 233)
Rey Rivera 1B out of Chipola Col(BA had him ranked 270)
Trent Giambrone 2B out of Delta St U
Austin Jones who's a 6'1 RHP Jr from University of Wisconsin - Whitewater
Connor Myers CF out of Old Dominion U
Ryan Bassett who's a 6'5 RHP out of Clark CC
Tyler Peyton who's a 6'3 RHP SR out of Iowa
Montana Parsons who's a 6'3 RHP out of San Jacinto College North
Brenden Heiss who's a 6'1 RHP out of Jacobs HS(BA had him as 408)
Zach Davis texas tech SR CF
Nathan Sweeney 6'4 RHP out of Cherry Creek HS
Davis Daniel 6'1 RHP out of St James School(BA had him at 109 overall but given where he was drafted he probably takes his commitment and goes to Auburn)
Ryan Kreidler ss/3b out of Davis (Calif.) HS (BA 315)
Jake Slaughter SS out of Ouachita Christian School
Davis Moore 6'4 RHP out of Los Osos HS
Tolly Filotei CF out of Faulkner State CC
Anthony Block 6'5 LHP out of Newport HS
D.J. Roberts 6'2 RHP out of Atlantic Coast HS(BA 389)

So, they've REALLY loaded up on pitching this year.

MLB.com had Cobb 184 overall and had this to say

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45
Cobb is the grandson of Frank Linzy, who pitched at Oklahoma State before saving 110 games in an 11-year big league career. Cobb spent his first two college seasons and the beginning of his third in the bullpen before transitioning to the rotation in mid-March. He initially pitched well in his new role before tiring down the stretch.

Cobb operates at 91-93 mph with sink on his fastball and is capable of reaching 96. His slider shows signs of becoming a plus pitch and creeps into the mid-80s, though it gets slurvy at times. His changeup has occasional tumble but lacks behind his other two offerings.

Mlb.com had Daniel at 135
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
An elbow injury cut Daniel's junior season at St. James School (Montgomery, Ala.) short, but he returned last summer throwing harder than ever and stood out at the Wood World Bat Association World Championship in Jupiter, Fla., last October. He carried that momentum into 2016, solidifying his status as one of the more polished high school pitchers available.

Daniels works at 90-94 mph with his fastball and held that velocity throughout the spring. He has a mid-70s curveball that features good depth when he stays on top of it, and he has feel for using a sinking changeup that still gets a little firm at times.

Daniels has impressive athleticism and control but will need to refine his command at the next level. He likes to vary his arm slot to throw hitters off balance, though his pitches flatten out when he drops down and he can't afford to sacrifice plane because he's just 6-foot-1. He projects to go as early as the third round, though that may not be high enough to lure him away from an Auburn commitment.

There's some hesitation in Cobb's delivery that costs him consistency with the quality of his pitches and his command. His arm action and lack of size almost certainly will point him back toward the bullpen in pro ball, and his fastball and slider could play up in shorter stints.
 

beckdawg

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Just FYI I'm updating the previous post as the cubs add more players.
 

beckdawg

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fangraphs released their KATOH projections for draft. Most guys the cubs drafted aren't really noteworthy enough to mention. However, Dakota Mekkes was apparently the highest rated of all players.

314. Dakota Mekkes, RHP, Chicago (NL)

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 3.8

Mekkes is KATOH’s favorite player in the draft. You read that right: Mekkes receives the highest WAR forecast of any draft-eligible player for whom I have a projection. Mekkes carved up Big 10 hitters by striking out 96 batters in just 57 innings without surrendering a single homerun. Yes, he pitched exclusively in relief, but he averaged nine batters faced per appearance. He wasn’t a one-inning reliever like many other college relievers. I imagine the 6-foot-7 righty will move quickly through the Cubs’ system. I’m quite surprised Mekkes fell as far as he did.

3 104 Tom Hatch Cubs RHP 34% 0.5
5 164 Bailey Clark Cubs RHP 15% 0.1
10 314 Dakota Mekkes Cubs RHP 78% 3.8

The % is I believe the projection of his chance to make the majors. Number after that is projected WAR thru age 27
 

beckdawg

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And thus concludes the draft. If you're curious to follow the signings of said players http://ccdt.webs.com/ does a really good job tracking stuff. Looks like 3 of the 40 players drafted are already sounding like they have signed or are near it. As for expectations, I'm not sure cubs will land guys like Kreidler, Roberts, Daniel, and Heiss. Generally anyone worth talking about in the 30th round probably isn't signing unless you have a big pool amount. Zinn and Rivera might also be tough signs.

That being said, Heiss is from Algonquin so there's some belief he might choose to stay at home. Also, chances are 100% of the college seniors from this draft sign so that would be

9.284 Robinson, Duncan
11.344 Rucker, Michael
18.554 Huberman, Marc
19.584 Swarmer, Matt
20.614 Freeman, Garrett
21.644 Tidaback, Samuel
25.764 Giambrone, Trent
27.824 Myers, Connor
29.884 Peyton, Tyler
32.974 Davis, Zach

Also chances are high anything before the 11th round also signs as if you don't sign them you lose the money allocated to their slot.
 

beckdawg

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So TIL that Harmon Killebrew's grand son is Chad Hocking who the cubs took in the 6th.
 

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