Neckbeard
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If the Bears, Commanders or Patriots are willing to deal out of the Top 3, there will be a hot market for their picks. The reason why, as you’d expect, is the makeup of the quarterback class. USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are considered a cut above the second tier (made up of Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.) at this early juncture. Which increases the chances QBs go 1-2-3, and the value of picks in that range.
There are a couple of pieces of history to examine here that can serve as your guide.
The first is the rate at which Top 3 picks are actually moved. In the last 10 drafts, seven teams traded up into, or within, the Top 3. Six of the seven moves were for quarterbacks. The seventh was the Texans’ trade up last year for Will Anderson Jr., and a quarterback was part of that equation, since Houston had just taken C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick. So in this era, teams really only trade into that range if it involves landing a young, potential franchise quarterback.
The second piece is the premium paid for such high picks that result in teams landing such quarterbacks of the future. Five of the seven involved a first-rounder the following year. In one of the two that didn’t, the Colts got two current-year second-round picks (37th and 49th overall), plus a second-rounder the following year from the Jets, while only dropping three spots in the draft order. In the other, the Niners got two thirds (one current year, one the following year) and a fourth from the Bears for dropping one spot.
So that tells you the moves up would have to be for a quarterback, and they’d be expensive for the team moving up.
Then, you can look at the teams that might be in play to move up—and you can easily come up with scenarios where the teams picking 6 (Giants), 7 (Titans), 8 (Falcons), 11 (Vikings), 12 (Broncos) and 13 (Raiders) could have an interest in making that move. Which tells you there very well should be a market for one of the first three picks, and even moreso if, say. only one of the top three teams is willing to move its pick.
Now, my guess would be the Bears stay where they are and take Williams at 1. Washington, then, would probably have the ability to move its pick, though my guess would be the Commanders probably stick and take a quarterback, too. And they could do that soon, in selling another team the choice between Maye and Daniels. It’s a little trickier for New England, given that, if you try to move the pick before draft day, then the trading team would have to be comfortable with all three quarterbacks. But Miami pulled it off in 2021.
Regardless, those three picks have very real, premium value right now. And my guess would be there’ll be at least some preliminary trade talks on them, whether it’s coming from the teams holding the picks or teams looking to get them, in Indianapolis next week.
Such is the case with the Bears and Justin Fields—with the team having gotten a little insight into what his trade value may be. Chicago staffers got inquiries from other teams on Fields in Mobile. And while the Bears haven’t shopped Fields, those conversations did allow the team to start to gauge the 2021 first-rounder’s worth out there on the market.
The Bears are meeting over the next couple weeks to finalize plans at quarterback, with the expectation that they’ll have the plan in place in Indianapolis next week.
Looking at how Chicago handled last year can be instructive. Bears GM Ryan Poles went to the combine in 2023 holding the first overall pick, knowing he’d try to move it but without having done much in the way of shopping it. Less than two weeks later, he moved it, and did so for two reasons. One, the Panthers met the premium that Chicago sought for trading the pick that early. Two, it involved a veteran player (DJ Moore) and, for cap and need purposes, Poles wanted to have clarity in what he’d be working with in free agency.
This time around, the likelihood is the principle in such a trade would be a veteran player, and, naturally, more teams have a quarterback need now than will be the case a month from now, so it makes sense—again, if you’re going to trade Fields—to do it soon.
Now, the Bears love Fields as a person, and really like him as a player, so I would say that whatever they do in the next few weeks will be with respect to a guy who gave them a lot, physically and otherwise, over the last three years. But I think the reality, for Chicago, will be that the talent of Caleb Williams plus the chance to reset the quarterback-on-a-rookie-contract clock will be too much for Chicago to pass on. We’ll see.
There are a couple of pieces of history to examine here that can serve as your guide.
The first is the rate at which Top 3 picks are actually moved. In the last 10 drafts, seven teams traded up into, or within, the Top 3. Six of the seven moves were for quarterbacks. The seventh was the Texans’ trade up last year for Will Anderson Jr., and a quarterback was part of that equation, since Houston had just taken C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick. So in this era, teams really only trade into that range if it involves landing a young, potential franchise quarterback.
The second piece is the premium paid for such high picks that result in teams landing such quarterbacks of the future. Five of the seven involved a first-rounder the following year. In one of the two that didn’t, the Colts got two current-year second-round picks (37th and 49th overall), plus a second-rounder the following year from the Jets, while only dropping three spots in the draft order. In the other, the Niners got two thirds (one current year, one the following year) and a fourth from the Bears for dropping one spot.
So that tells you the moves up would have to be for a quarterback, and they’d be expensive for the team moving up.
Then, you can look at the teams that might be in play to move up—and you can easily come up with scenarios where the teams picking 6 (Giants), 7 (Titans), 8 (Falcons), 11 (Vikings), 12 (Broncos) and 13 (Raiders) could have an interest in making that move. Which tells you there very well should be a market for one of the first three picks, and even moreso if, say. only one of the top three teams is willing to move its pick.
Now, my guess would be the Bears stay where they are and take Williams at 1. Washington, then, would probably have the ability to move its pick, though my guess would be the Commanders probably stick and take a quarterback, too. And they could do that soon, in selling another team the choice between Maye and Daniels. It’s a little trickier for New England, given that, if you try to move the pick before draft day, then the trading team would have to be comfortable with all three quarterbacks. But Miami pulled it off in 2021.
Regardless, those three picks have very real, premium value right now. And my guess would be there’ll be at least some preliminary trade talks on them, whether it’s coming from the teams holding the picks or teams looking to get them, in Indianapolis next week.
Such is the case with the Bears and Justin Fields—with the team having gotten a little insight into what his trade value may be. Chicago staffers got inquiries from other teams on Fields in Mobile. And while the Bears haven’t shopped Fields, those conversations did allow the team to start to gauge the 2021 first-rounder’s worth out there on the market.
The Bears are meeting over the next couple weeks to finalize plans at quarterback, with the expectation that they’ll have the plan in place in Indianapolis next week.
Looking at how Chicago handled last year can be instructive. Bears GM Ryan Poles went to the combine in 2023 holding the first overall pick, knowing he’d try to move it but without having done much in the way of shopping it. Less than two weeks later, he moved it, and did so for two reasons. One, the Panthers met the premium that Chicago sought for trading the pick that early. Two, it involved a veteran player (DJ Moore) and, for cap and need purposes, Poles wanted to have clarity in what he’d be working with in free agency.
This time around, the likelihood is the principle in such a trade would be a veteran player, and, naturally, more teams have a quarterback need now than will be the case a month from now, so it makes sense—again, if you’re going to trade Fields—to do it soon.
Now, the Bears love Fields as a person, and really like him as a player, so I would say that whatever they do in the next few weeks will be with respect to a guy who gave them a lot, physically and otherwise, over the last three years. But I think the reality, for Chicago, will be that the talent of Caleb Williams plus the chance to reset the quarterback-on-a-rookie-contract clock will be too much for Chicago to pass on. We’ll see.
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They like Fields....writer thinks they draft Williams....this speculation has been on repeat ad nauseam.
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"Chicago staffers got inquiries from other teams on Fields in Mobile. And while the Bears haven’t shopped Fields, those conversations did allow the team to start to gauge the 2021 first-rounder’s worth out there on the market."
This seems a little more than speculation. Everything else is the same as usual though
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People asked how much for Fields...Bears aren't shopping him...
Seems like a positive in the keeping Fields camp
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not a place that they would shop him and it says Chicago "staffers", not the one making that decision. Combine is where you might start hearing things.
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Its a bunch of nothing...The Bears President praising Fields was a bigger story...
Toast88
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Does Albert Breer not realize the QB clock is a myth?
Neckbeard
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I felt two pieces of info were “new/interesting”
1) to date, they haven’t shopped Fields
2) to date, they haven’t even discussed as a team what the final plan is
Mainly wanted to post this because the idea that anything is a “done deal” as some have said, is entirely untrue and not reality.
We should find out in 3-4 weeks.
1) to date, they haven’t shopped Fields
2) to date, they haven’t even discussed as a team what the final plan is
Mainly wanted to post this because the idea that anything is a “done deal” as some have said, is entirely untrue and not reality.
We should find out in 3-4 weeks.
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I’m sorry but they most definitely have discussed the final plan is. It’s more likely that they haven’t made up their mind (completely) but this was discussed as soon as the Panthers lost in week 17.
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If this is actually true, fire them all right now.
JoJoBoxer
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Yeah, and I can imagine the conversation.
Ian, "So ... Caleb?"
Poles. "So Caleb ... hmmmmmm."
It was discussed but of course nothing was decided or even close to being decided. How can they decide on anything if they haven't even spoken to the most of the prime players? Most of the offensive coaches were not even on the Bears at the time and probably none of the draft picks have been interviewed even once.
It is a process that, at minimum, needs to go through the Combine for the Bears to meet players and talk to teams. Who knows? Even MHJ could hurt his stock by having a terrible interview, taking himself off the Bears draft board. Highly unlikely, but even a bad medical can drop a player off teams' draft boards.
Have patience.
Bearly
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Just thought i'd link for those not wanting to look around for it.
www.si.com
Evaluating Justin Fields Trade Options for the Bears to Draft Caleb Williams
Chicago has control of the No. 1 pick for a second straight year, giving the franchise a level of flexibility at quarterback that may mean moving on from their three-year starter.
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If this is actually true, fire them all right now.
Think they know who they want. It was reported they would have a QB plan in place by the combine which is next week.
Toast88
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(Poles wakes up, looks at his calendar: 'Decide on Fields or Williams')
"Oh shit, was that today?!"
^^How some people think it works.
"Oh shit, was that today?!"
^^How some people think it works.
Neckbeard
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lol of course not that. But their group team meetings didn't happen until this week/next week. That's when all ideas are discussed, ran thru, and consensus is gained/way forward agreed upon.