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John Jaeckel on the Western Conference
It’s early but I promised you in my next blog I would take a preliminary shot at breaking down the West. And this is also subject to change until October 1. So here goes:
Two year ago, I predicted Chicago and Philadelphia would come out of their respective conferences.
Last year, while I did not make a choice in the East, I had Vancouver in the West.
I do put some thought into these things.
And here’s what I think: a lot of the true contending teams in the West have made some big changes. If you just look at the names and their on-ice skills and reputations, you can come to some conclusions about how that will impact the standings:
The Sharks and Kings will be a lot better. The Hawks might be a tick better. The Wings and Preds about the same. The Canucks are maybe taking a step back.
All that said, throw it out.
The truth is, any of those 6 teams could come out of the West this year. Only 3 of them (in all likelihood) will be top 3 seeds with home-ice advantage. But the eventual conference champion could very easily be seeded 4th-6th.
One big factor that must be considered is organizational inertia. Or, put another way: success breeds success and failure often breeds failure.
When you think of enduring success in the NHL, you likely have to think of the aged Detroit Red Wings first.
When you think of continuing frustration and underdelivered expectations, you have to think of the Sharks and the Canucks. Maybe less so the Preds, who always seem to be a second round exit, but also always seem to overperform.
When you think of teams who are arcing (or have arced) from mediocrity to greatness, you think of the Kings and the Blackhawks
But this is also why they play the games— why teams like the Sharks go out and reload and recalibrate— to get past those stigma. So while organizational inertia can tell you a lot, it also is not the single determinant.
The following is how I see the West after the regular season, barring late roster changes or injuries:
1. Vancouver
2. Los Angeles
3. Chicago
4. San Jose
5. Nashville
6. Detroit
7. St. Louis
8. Anaheim
9. Columbus
10. Phoenix
11. Dallas
12. Calgary
13. Colorado
14. Minnesota
15. Edmonton
Among the top 8 teams (and believe me, while the first six were easy, the next 6 were almost impossible— virtually interchangeable), here are my thoughts:
Vancouver.
You can look at how the Canucks are arcing two ways: continual failure to meet overbuilt expectations, or that they keep getting closer to the ultimate prize year after year.
The problem is, the Canucks lost one of their two best defensemen and their “all-world” goalie is now, officially, snakebit (or worse). Some Canuck fans, who had been pumping Christian Ehrhoff the last two years now say he was an insignificant piece on their team, and that Corey Schneider is “better than Luongo anyway.”
And that aside, I just feel like all the hype that fueled the Canucks last season, followed by the disappointment of the eventual loss to Boston has to have left a mark on the Canucks' psyches.
Success is a mindset. The Canucks prove year after year they don’t have that mindset. They are a very, very good team. But the one thing they can can be counted on to do is falter in the playoffs.
Los Angeles
I like the Kings moves a lot. Who wouldn’t? That said, like the Hawks, the Kings paid a price for adding Mike Richards, subtracting a good, physical young player in Wayne Simmonds.
Richards is a very good player on the ice, though not the elite player some make him out to be. And he, even more so than Havlat, has been known to rub some people the wrong way off the ice.
And late-season addition Dustin Penner carries the career-long underachiever label.
But the Kings moves, with the addition of Simon Gagne, have definitely made them a three-line threat. They are stacked at forward.
Their goaltending is solid. Maybe the biggest question is on defense where what kind of season Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson have, and Willie Mitchell’s health have to be considered. I like the Kings a lot. I’ll like them better when they’ve won something.
Chicago
Let me first say, the big question looming over the Blackhawks is how well Nick Leddy, Niklas Hjalmarsson and now perhaps Sami Lepisto, can fill the void left by Brian Campbell’s departure. But let’s also bear in mind, Campbell was a second pairing defenseman on the Hawks, whose greatest value was taking some pressure off of Duncan Keith. And Leddy, in case you don’t already know it, is a big-time talent on the rise.
Regardless, that cap-loosening move was a bit of a necessary risk by GM Stan Bowman and, to me, is the single biggest question dogging the Hawks. Because many other questions from a somewhat deflating 2010-11 have been answered.
The Hawks did not lack talent last year. They lacked physicality, snarl, experience and taking care of business. The guys they went out and signed this offseason— Andrew Brunette, Jamal Mayers, Dan Carcillo, Steve Montador and Sean O’Donnell— will not make anyone forget the ’72 Soviets. But that’s OK, the Hawks already had more skill and speed than 95% of the league. What those guys will do is add some quality depth, toughness (physical and mental) and experience that was sorely lacking in the club that gave the Canucks their biggest challenge before the Finals.
The other thing about the Hawks is, like the Wings, they’ve done it. They know how to win. For most of the last three seasons (excluding the first 85 games of last season), this has been a team that has felt it can win any game in any circumstance. Down 5-0 against the Flames? No problem, 6-5 win. Need two short-handed goals on the road in Detroit to win? Done. Down 3-0 against the presumptive Cup Champs, and come back to take the series? Well, almost.
The Party's over, the hangover's over. The Hawks are still a very talented and now deeper team.
Not surprisingly, Scotty Bowman, at nearly 77 years of age, has his imprimateur all over this team. And I believe this is what put the names of Mayers, Montador et al on the Hawks’ shopping list this past summer.
San Jose
This is a tough team to predict.
They replaced Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi wth Brent Burns and Marty Havlat. Good moves, but for all the lamentations about Heatley as a playoff loser, what have Havlat or Burns ever won?
In fairness, I think Havlat is a more dynamic, courageous big-game player than Heatley is. But I will also say, he has been known to occasionally rub some teammates the wrong way as well. And he is notoriously injury prone.
Before the Western Conference Final, I anointed Antti Niemi arguably the best big-game goalie in the league. After the series, I wasn’t as sure, but I am still a big Nemo fan.
Was Heatley always the problem in the playoffs, or is Joe Thornton another bad game or two away from a meltdown like he had in the WCF two years ago?
Burns is a nice addition, but I was not enthralled with Dan Boyle’s play in this year’s WCF at all. The Sedins made Doug Murray look like a pylon (but they’ll do that to a lot of guys).
I’m not sold on the Sharks. I like the changes. But they have a lot still to prove.
Detroit
The team I used to hate, but respect so much I’ve gained a grudging affection for them.
I predicted last year the Wings would fade at some point due to age and injury and I was not wrong. I believe the same thing will happen this year. Their best players are either too old and or have taken too many serious injuries in their careers. And losing Brian Rafalski, regardless of his replacement, will not help. Wings fans saying “he wasn’t all that good anyway” sounds a lot like Vancouver fans covering for Ehrhoff’s exit.
That said, this team winning the West would not surprise me at all, either.
To me (and this speaks to why I like the Blackhawks’ offseason moves so much), the Red Wings overcome salary cap, age and injury year after year because they are the most professional on-ice organization in the NHL. Their players (and Mike Babcock) don’t mess around; they are 100% committed to winning and doing what it takes to win on and off the ice. Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Stuart, Kronwall, Franzen, even guys you love to hate like Holmstrom. No team in the league knows more about winning. Period. A note to the Canucks: they know how good they are and have no problem admitting how good their competition is. That's what true warriors do. The Wings have the Culture of Winning that so many teams want— that the Blackhawks and Penguins seem to be closest to emulating.
You can never completely count these guys out, even though the clock is ticking.
Nashville
Defense, physicality, goaltending. Welcome to Smashville. They are what they have been and will continue to be.
St. Louis
Some think with the additions of veterans Jason Arnott and Jamie Langenbrunner to a young, talented core, the Blues will finally put it all together this year. Could be. I liked them to do that last year, and they disappointed.
However, these veteran additions could have a similar stabilizing effect on the Notes as I sense the Blackhawk’ additions will in Chicago.
And there is undeniable young talent from the net out in St. Louis.
Anaheim
I was tempted to put Columbus here. In fact, right now, this could just as easily be the Jackets, with the additions of Jeff Carter and James Wisniewski. But you also can’t count out Anaheim with arguably the best first line in hockey and one of the best goalies in the game either.
Let me say this about the Jackets. I loved the way they played at times under Scott Arniel last year. And Carter makes them potentially a three-line team, if Antoine vermette pivots the third line as some think he might.
That said, forward depth has never been the problem for the Jackets. Defense has always been the problem for the Jackets. Not just their inability to stop Steve Mason from becoming shell-shocked most nights, but also a lack of a consistent transition game from the back end.
Wiz will help, but Jackets fans are also placing too much expectation on a pretty good, but not great defenseman. And one who gets injured a lot.
So for the 8th seed, I default to the Ducks, a consistently very good team that always makes the playoffs.
The West has never been as competitive as it will be this year. Vancouver will not rack up 117 points again this year and the Kings and Sharks will cannibalize each other, just as the Hawks, Wings and Preds will in an incredibly tough Central Division.
But it will take some number in the high 90s again, to even squeak in to the playoffs this year.
In the playoffs, which after establishing the top 8 teams is really all that matters, I see:
Vancouver over Anaheim
Los Angeles over St. Louis
Chicago over Detroit
San Jose over Nashville
Vancouver over San Jose
Chicago over Los Angeles
Chicago over Vancouver
Call me a homer. Do it. But then remember, I picked the winner in the West the last two years.
