Our level of prospects "almost" guarantee offensive juggernaut status

[JP Hochbaum]

"No matter. The point is this: it isn't just that it's reasonable to expect the Cubs prospect core to produce more than a few major leaguers; it's actually unreasonable to expect anything less than five of these players to make it to the Majors and have meaningful careers. It's more reasonable to expect six of them to have such careers, and the odds of all seven spending at least a few years in the majors is very high given the history of comparable prospects.

For that matter, the odds suggest that a pair of these prospects will turn into All-Star players while at least three more will amass thousands of plate appearances as average regulars.

Things happen. If being a Cubs fan has taught us anything, it's that sometimes can't miss players miss. As Oscar Taveras heartbreakingly reminded us last month, life itself can pass in a moment. There are no guarantees.

Caveats aside, history is a strong guide. Most prospects amount to nothing. But most premium prospects amount to quite a bit in baseball, even if some part of their game prevents them from reaching an elite ceiling.

We've been burned so many times before. But it's okay to hope, believe, and even expect success from this group as a whole.

One other thing: these guys won't be added to a completely empty expansion roster. The Cubs happen to have a pair of 25-year-old All-Stars in the fold through the end of the decade too.

Expect the offensive juggernaut, Cubs fans. Baseball history tells us to do so."

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2014/11/6/7159287/cubs-top-prospects-expectations-history

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I compare this squad to the 90's Royals that had Damon, Sweeney, Dye, Beltran, Randa

 

[beckdawg]

Not sure I agree with the conclusion. I'm not even hating on the prospects but even if they become average MLB players that doesn't necessarily make them a dominant team. At the end of the day to be "juggernaut" you have to have one of the best hitters in the game. It's fairly rare that you see an overall team just being great. The last that comes to mind was the Mariners in the Ichiro early days that won a ridiculous amount of games.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Not sure I agree with the conclusion. I'm not even hating on the prospects but even if they become average MLB players that doesn't necessarily make them a dominant team. At the end of the day to be "juggernaut" you have to have one of the best hitters in the game. It's fairly rare that you see an overall team just being great. The last that comes to mind was the Mariners in the Ichiro early days that won a ridiculous amount of games.

I think you've got it right when you say you need one of the best hitters in the game but I also think that's where the enthusiasm comes in too. At least three of their prospects have that potential in Baez, Bryant and Schwarber, potentially Soler. Of course it could be none of those also but having multiple shots at that guy helps.

 

[chibears55]

You can always sign or trade for that big hitter, they don't necessarily have to come from your system. ..

The way I look at this team going forward is that rizzo and castro are already established. .
Of Baez, soler, alcantara, Bryant, russell, and schwarber if they can get 3 of these 6 to become solid everyday players their going to have a solid chance of winning every year on the position players side.. the other positions can be filled in via FA or trade...

The key to keep it all going though is to continue to draft or trade for solid players to keep the foundation strong and be able to use them for your team or trades for players of needs to keep winning going forward. .

They cant just establish these core players now and be satisfied and fall back to having a mediocre system. ..

 

[Parade_Rain]

I think you've got it right when you say you need one of the best hitters in the game but I also think that's where the enthusiasm comes in too. At least three of their prospects have that potential in Baez, Bryant and Schwarber, potentially Soler. Of course it could be none of those also but having multiple shots at that guy helps.

Soler "potentially"? Of all the prospects I look to him to be the most sure thing as an impact player.

 

[beckdawg]

You can always sign or trade for that big hitter, they don't necessarily have to come from your system.

If you were the angels would you trade Mike Torut? There in lies the issue. It's pretty rare that someone like say Miggy gets traded and they almost never in hit FA. Is Bonds the last? He's the one that comes to mind for me but that was a different time in terms of FA and of course he was a Pitt player which we've now seen means cheaper team.

 

[chibears55]

If you were the angels would you trade Mike Torut? There in lies the issue. It's pretty rare that someone like say Miggy gets traded and they almost never in hit FA. Is Bonds the last? He's the one that comes to mind for me but that was a different time in terms of FA and of course he was a Pitt player which we've now seen means cheaper team.

Prince Fielder got traded..

There been talks about Stanton getting traded...

Teams are almost always looking to move players before they hit FA or unload salary...

No, your not going to see guys like trout getting moved from a high budget team but you may see a solid player become available from a low budget team..

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Soler "potentially"? Of all the prospects I look to him to be the most sure thing as an impact player.

See I guess I see him as the most consistent and capable of being a very, very good MLB player for a long time but not necessarily an MVP caliber guy. Bryant looks to me to be an almost can't miss perennial MVP candidate, Schwarber looks like he could be that as well and enough has been said about Baez and his generational bat speed that, while he's got a lot to prove to me, maybe he's got that in him too.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Schwarber hasn't passed A ball. How could anyone possibly know what he looks to be yet? As for impact players I have a hard time imagining that a "very, very good MLB player for a long time" isn't an impact player. You're disregarding the Hall of Very Good, IMHO.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Most scouts feel that after being a 4 year starter at Indiana that his bat is nearly ready which puts him ahead of where Bryant was last year with the bat. Jed actually spoke about it. Some think he's ready to hit in MLB now. Just going on what I've heard .

 

[CSF77]

Right now the only sure things on the Cubs is Castro and Rizzo. Soler still has to put up solid production over a whole season. Baez was over matched. Alcantara started hot then got owned but the league. Bryant has not seen 1 AB vs major league pitching...trust me he will have a bullseye on him when he comes up....

They need a few vet bats in the line up to stabilize it.

 

[CSF77]

Most scouts feel that after being a 4 year starter at Indiana that his bat is nearly ready which puts him ahead of where Bryant was last year with the bat. Jed actually spoke about it. Some think he's ready to hit in MLB now. Just going on what I've heard .

Really? Come on now man. A+ pitching is no where close to MLB pitching.

That said I expect him in AAA by the end of next year...but hitting MLB starters? That is kinda disrespectful to proven players in general.

 

[DewsSox79]

threads made like this are awesome.


Sent from My 1998 Palm Pilot Using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Really? Come on now man. A+ pitching is no where close to MLB pitching.

That said I expect him in AAA by the end of next year...but hitting MLB starters? That is kinda disrespectful to proven players in general.

I don't get the disrespect angle but OK. My point was the three players that I thought had a chance to be special based largely on what I've seen as far as scouting. Last year there was piece in SI that stated about the late Oscar Tavares that he would be the best hitter in baseball by the time he hit one week in MLB. Obviously he wasn't and sadly now we will never know. My point is people say those thing and project guys all the time. When I read in a scouting piece "more advanced at the plate than Kris Bryant" I get excited. Sue me.

Getting back to Soler, my guess is very good for a very long time is what he's probably going to be. That's awesome and you'd like a team of those guys but you also look for those guys who might be better than that. Doesn't happen very often but this conversation started by Beckdawg Saying that to be an offensive juggernaut you had to have one of the best hitters in the game. Again I think he Cubs have three guys with that potential maybe four. I like those odds. That's all I got.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

While there's certainly reason to be optimistic about these prospects, lets not count chickens before they hatch......

These prospects, premium, top of the line, elite, whatever you want to call them--haven't seen a pitch at the MLB level outside Baez--who has a ways to go. (Couldn't hurt to stop whiffing at fastballs at his eyes but I digress).

I don't want to sound like a pessimist, but I'm not "expecting" anything. Anything can happen. It points out Oscar Tavares, and how life's short. There are also very long lists of 'cant miss' guys who bust.

Do I want every single one of these kids to live up to potential? Damn right. Will it happen, only a fool would think so. This "article" was nothing more than a feel good puff piece. We're lucky if one of these kids is an all star.

And History shows you what you want to see. You can point to the Royals with Damon, Beltran, etc and make comparisons. One could quickly turn it around and say Epstein has historically busted on 1st round/comp 1st round draft picks. Look up guys named Kolbrin Vitek, Reymound Fuentes, Casey Kelly, Bryan Price, Nick Hagadone, Ryan Dent, Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Caleb Clay and Kristopher Johnson.

See what I did there? I bent "History" to add to my devil's advocate argument. These players were all talents that never were.

I can also point out how Kris Bryant's one game against major league pitching (a Clayton Kershaw rehab start) made him go 0-4 with 3 Ks.

We need to see the right guys pan out. Right now I'm mighty impressed with Soler. I think he's the real deal, unless he has a major meltdown. I hope like hell he's not a headcase like fellow Cuban Puig. Baez needs to cut down on the K's, but his play throughout the minors has shown us that he's a slow starter and gets red hot. Really reminds me of Aramis Ramirez. Ice cold in April and May, but as soon as June gets here, look out.

I want Bryant and Russell to pan out. I want some of these pitchers (cubs have taken a lot in Theo's tenure in the 1st 10 rounds each draft) to get up here and be our Michael Wacha or Shelby Miller or Chris Sale. The overlooked, not top talents of the draft.

But I'm not getting mixed up in this "almost guarantee." I'm going to wait and see. There's plenty to be excited about with this team in the coming days, weeks, and soon enough, next spring.

I'm not saying "it won't happen," I'm just saying we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Many teams have tried this method and succeeded, and more have failed trying.

Till then, I have the bears, errrr.....Blackhawks to get me through the winter. Lets enjoy it.

 

[CSF77]

I don't get the disrespect angle but OK. My point was the three players that I thought had a chance to be special based largely on what I've seen as far as scouting. Last year there was piece in SI that stated about the late Oscar Tavares that he would be the best hitter in baseball by the time he hit one week in MLB. Obviously he wasn't and sadly now we will never know. My point is people say those thing and project guys all the time. When I read in a scouting piece "more advanced at the plate than Kris Bryant" I get excited. Sue me.

Getting back to Soler, my guess is very good for a very long time is what he's probably going to be. That's awesome and you'd like a team of those guys but you also look for those guys who might be better than that. Doesn't happen very often but this conversation started by Beckdawg Saying that to be an offensive juggernaut you had to have one of the best hitters in the game. Again I think he Cubs have three guys with that potential maybe four. I like those odds. That's all I got.

Saying that any player can come up and just plain rake right out of A+ is silly and it is disrespectful to the players who went through the learning curve to get to that point.

Major league players are the ones that made it. They are the minority. The majority never make it.

So saying any player who is not playing every day on a major league team is on a level of a player who is is misguided and disrespectful to the guys that have made it.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So projecting top prospects into a line up unless or until they make a big league club is just wrong then? That puts an entire baseball speculation industry out of business. I get what you're saying, I'm just saying it's done every single day. It's just talking.

 

[CSF77]

While there's certainly reason to be optimistic about these prospects, lets not count chickens before they hatch......

These prospects, premium, top of the line, elite, whatever you want to call them--haven't seen a pitch at the MLB level outside Baez--who has a ways to go. (Couldn't hurt to stop whiffing at fastballs at his eyes but I digress).

I don't want to sound like a pessimist, but I'm not "expecting" anything. Anything can happen. It points out Oscar Tavares, and how life's short. There are also very long lists of 'cant miss' guys who bust.

Do I want every single one of these kids to live up to potential? Damn right. Will it happen, only a fool would think so. This "article" was nothing more than a feel good puff piece. We're lucky if one of these kids is an all star.

And History shows you what you want to see. You can point to the Royals with Damon, Beltran, etc and make comparisons. One could quickly turn it around and say Epstein has historically busted on 1st round/comp 1st round draft picks. Look up guys named Kolbrin Vitek, Reymound Fuentes, Casey Kelly, Bryan Price, Nick Hagadone, Ryan Dent, Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Caleb Clay and Kristopher Johnson.

See what I did there? I bent "History" to add to my devil's advocate argument. These players were all talents that never were.

I can also point out how Kris Bryant's one game against major league pitching (a Clayton Kershaw rehab start) made him go 0-4 with 3 Ks.

We need to see the right guys pan out. Right now I'm mighty impressed with Soler. I think he's the real deal, unless he has a major meltdown. I hope like hell he's not a headcase like fellow Cuban Puig. Baez needs to cut down on the K's, but his play throughout the minors has shown us that he's a slow starter and gets red hot. Really reminds me of Aramis Ramirez. Ice cold in April and May, but as soon as June gets here, look out.

I want Bryant and Russell to pan out. I want some of these pitchers (cubs have taken a lot in Theo's tenure in the 1st 10 rounds each draft) to get up here and be our Michael Wacha or Shelby Miller or Chris Sale. The overlooked, not top talents of the draft.

But I'm not getting mixed up in this "almost guarantee." I'm going to wait and see. There's plenty to be excited about with this team in the coming days, weeks, and soon enough, next spring.

I'm not saying "it won't happen," I'm just saying we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Many teams have tried this method and succeeded, and more have failed trying.

Till then, I have the bears, errrr.....Blackhawks to get me through the winter. Lets enjoy it.

Solid post.

I feel good about Soler having a strong season as long as he doesn't hit the DL. His approach at the plate is very well rounded. He is not trying to blast every pitch into the stands like Baez is doing. He will go to RF with a pitch and he will take his fair share of walks. Sure he will strike out but I'm expecting him to hover around 20% when it is said and done. I believe he will be a strong every day RF. Not the spot light type but the work horse.

The problem with this team is they are too heavy on youth right now. They need IMO 2 all star level vets. One in the rotation and one in the line up.

The O leaders are Castro and Rizzo. Both are still babies in the league. Neither have been in a play off series. Leaders of the rotation Arrieta and Wood. Same thing can be said here. Sure they have been involved with the Reds and the O's but neither were stable SP at that time.

That is a clear need going on right now. Sure it is fun to stroke your selves off in a bath of prospects but that is not what is going to make this team good. Sure 5 years down the road after they have weeded out the duds and the rest become what they are; then ya those guys will be the guys leading the charge. Right now they need proven leaders to lead the way.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

So projecting top prospects into a line up unless or until they make a big league club is just wrong then? That puts an entire baseball speculation industry out of business. I get what you're saying, I'm just saying it's done every single day. It's just talking.

There's nothing wrong with projecting them in a line up. They're going to come up. They're going to get their share of plate appearances. I want them to succeed and learn to balance adjustments with readjustments.

I have a problem projecting "that a pair of these prospects will turn into All-Star players while at least three more will amass thousands of plate appearances as average regulars."