Packers win over SF makes Bears game vs. NE less meaningful

[Rory Sparrow]

The Packers were kind of in a 'must-win' situation against the Niners last night...lose at home to a mediocre opponent, get your bye, then your next two games are against the Rams and Patriots? Ouch.

The good news for the Bears is that the Packers looked like a one-man show and in some ways the Packers defense getting shredded by CJ Beathard is just as bad as the Bears giving up 541 yards to Brock Osweiler's offense. The bad news is that the NFC North is now a total clusterfuck, and IMO it will remain that way for the next several weeks until the Bears hit the part of their schedule where they play the other divisional teams.

I think there is a big difference between the Bears being 4-1 and the Bears being 3-2. The combination of the Bears 'snatching defeat from the jaws of victory' against the Dolphins and the Packers benefiting from the fact that a) Richard Sherman is still in the NFL, b) the Niners thought the last drive of the game was a good time to matchup Sherman on Davante Adams, and c) Richard Sherman still thinks he is on the Seahawks and can get away with spinning WRs around 15 yards downfield, means that the Bears cannot simply sneak away with the division. If the Bears lose to the Patriots, then they are still essentially in the same position...fighting with all the other NFC North clubs for a postseason spot. It's highly possible that the Vikings and Lions win against AFC Least teams, the Bears lose to the Pats, and the Packers sit at home, making the new standings:

Vikings 4-2-1
Packers 3-2-1
Lions 3-3
Bears 3-3

The Lions would hold the tiebreaker over Chicago due to a better divisional record.

I think had the Bears won over Miami and the Packers lost, it would be seen as a two-horse race between the 4-1 Bears and the 3-2-1 Vikes, with the pressure on the Bears to beat NE to maintain their division lead. The dream scenario would be for the Bears to beat NE and hold a 2.5 game lead over the Vikings (5-1 vs. 3-3-1). Since that no longer exists, I think the Bears v. Pats game is just another non-divisional game on the schedule. Perhaps that is the completely opposite way to think about things, IDK.

 

[Bearly]

Why this game against a winning team was so important and was getting way too overlooked and dismissed by Bear fans. Gotta win the ones you're supposed to if you want to make the postseason.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Why this game against a winning team was so important and was getting way too overlooked and dismissed by Bear fans. Gotta win the ones you're supposed to if you want to make the postseason.

That was always the knock on Lovie Smith..."He never beats good teams"...but he always beat the bad teams, which seemed to work out fairly well.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Too Early to tell, and most of this won't be decided until they are further into the divisional schedule as you mentioned. Isn't one of the tie breakers "common opponents"? I think the division is starting to shake out like i expected it would, with the exception that the Bears are a more serious contender now, after the Mack trade. Still think GB is a pretender, Bears have a decent chance at a WC spot, and the Lions have an outside shot. Still see the Vikes as the commanding favorite to win the division. Of course, any one key injury to any of these teams could really change things.

 

[iueyedoc]

That was always the knock on Lovie Smith..."He never beats good teams"...but he always beat the bad teams, which seemed to work out fairly well.

Bears fans version of fairly well is making the playoffs 3 of 9 yrs, a career record of 92-90, and 1 playoff appearance in 1 of his last 6 seasons. Lovie Smith is just the least toothless contestant in the Bears 30 year coaching version of the Miss W. Virginia beauty pageant.

Sorta sad what we have been beaten down to accept as good.

 

[Mdbearz]

This makes my head hurt....

While I would love us to be 4-1, we are not, so no sense in trying to make sense of the playoff picture until we have more divisional games under our belt.

We have 3 Non-divisional games coming up, and we need to play each game as if it matters, because it does. Imagine if we beat the Pats and then lose to the Jets and Bills?

We can play the "what-if" game, but I think it is important to approach the Pats as a must win, even though it would be an upset if we do win.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Bears fans version of fairly well is making the playoffs 3 of 9 yrs, a career record of 92-90, and 1 playoff appearance in 1 of his last 6 seasons. Lovie Smith is just the least toothless contestant in the Bears 30 year coaching version of the Miss W. Virginia beauty pageant.

Sorta sad what we have been beaten down to accept as good.

Lovie's record with Bears was 81-63, not 92-90. Not sure where you are getting your numbers.

 

[cbo0485]

The packers winning is never good.

 

[bearmick]

The Packers might be a one man show, but that one man is better than the whole Bears team combined. I still think they'll win the division by a game over the Vikings.

 

[BNB]

FWIW - According to this site, if the Bears beat the Patriots, they have a ~46% chance of winning the division and a ~70% chance of making the playoffs.

If they lose, they have a ~32% chance of winning the division and ~53% chance of making the playoffs.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...yoff-picture.html#chi-ne-7=win&event=champion


I wish we could see some of their simulations historically to see how accurate it is. Obviously injuries can throw things off... but still fun to look at it.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

GB doesn’t worry me. They will take 2 L’s against NE and the rams so they will fall even more behind in the standings. We just have to pray we some how beat New England and we have to at least split the series with Minnesota this year. Which doesn’t seem impossible but certainly won’t be easy.


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[Penny Traitor]

Lovie's record with Bears was 81-63, not 92-90. Not sure where you are getting your numbers.

92-90 is his NFL career record...so it includes a lot of Tampa Bay losses.

As to the OP...every win matters, but it is true that if the Bears are going to lose...these AFC match-ups are the time to get it out of your system.

(Although 0-4 would really suck)

 

[nc0gnet0]

FWIW - According to this site, if the Bears beat the Patriots, they have a ~46% chance of winning the division and a ~70% chance of making the playoffs.

If they lose, they have a ~32% chance of winning the division and ~53% chance of making the playoffs.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...yoff-picture.html#chi-ne-7=win&event=champion


I wish we could see some of their simulations historically to see how accurate it is. Obviously injuries can throw things off... but still fun to look at it.

This whole division will come down to injurys.

 

[jonimus]

Yeah, I agree. The difference of being 9-7 vs 8-8 or 10-6 vs 9-7 is huge. Divisional games are obviously the most important but that's only if it comes down to a tie breaker. At the end of the year, that tie breaker would hold no ground if we 'just won one more game' against any team.

Gotta stick with the meatball mentality and just worry about the next game at this point.

This makes my head hurt....

While I would love us to be 4-1, we are not, so no sense in trying to make sense of the playoff picture until we have more divisional games under our belt.

We have 3 Non-divisional games coming up, and we need to play each game as if it matters, because it does. Imagine if we beat the Pats and then lose to the Jets and Bills?

We can play the "what-if" game, but I think it is important to approach the Pats as a must win, even though it would be an upset if we do win.

 

[Midway Fields]

The Packers might be a one man show, but that one man is better than the whole Bears team combined. I still think they'll win the division by a game over the Vikings.

Only if he learns to play defense at the same level.

 

[nc0gnet0]

GB doesn’t worry me. They will take 2 L’s against NE and the rams so they will fall even more behind in the standings. We just have to pray we some how beat New England and we have to at least split the series with Minnesota this year. Which doesn’t seem impossible but certainly won’t be easy.


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Until one of those things happen, you have to worry though. With the Bears luck, they will lose to NE but knock Brady out of the game in the 4th quarter. Then two weeks later, a GB team will beat a crippled NE team.

 

[bearmick]

Only if he learns to play defense at the same level.

When he's on, there isn't a defense that can stop him.

 

[iueyedoc]

92-90 is his NFL career record...so it includes a lot of Tampa Bay losses.

As to the OP...every win matters, but it is true that if the Bears are going to lose...these AFC match-ups are the time to get it out of your system.

(Although 0-4 would really suck)

Yep my bad. Looked at the wrong #'s. That said, 1 playoffs in his last 6 seasons with the Bears and 3 of 9 overall with a total of 3 playoff wins in 9 seasons. I don't think he needs to worry about get sized for a HOF jacket or even a HOReallyGood jacket.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

Until one of those things happen, you have to worry though. With the Bears luck, they will lose to NE but knock Brady out of the game in the 4th quarter. Then two weeks later, a GB team will beat a crippled NE team.

I was thinking about it last night. Our defense is significantly better than KC and while our offense isn’t on par with KC it’s getting better each week. I definitely think it’s possible we beat New England.


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[Rory Sparrow]

92-90 is his NFL career record...so it includes a lot of Tampa Bay losses.

So Bears fans were still upset with Lovie when he was losing at Tampa? Wow, I knew CCS had angst issues, but I didn't realize they were so pronounced. I can only imagine how the Illini's football struggles have put a damper on the Bears season for the fans.

John Fox's record was 141-130 with two Super Bowl appearances, so not sure why Bears fans wanted him fired.