PECOTA projection starting to materialize

[Rory Sparrow]

• The Cubs? Well, they swapped out Tommy La Stella for Daniel Descalso and signed Brad Brach for a year.
• Meanwhile, they Cubs had the NL’s oldest pitching staff last year. The rotation looks like Jon Lester (in his age-35 season), Jose Quintana (30), Cole Hamels (35), Kyle Hendricks (29), and Yu Darvish (32). The closer will be … Brandon Morrow (34)? Pedro Strop (34)? Steve Cishek (32)? Brach (33)? PECOTA, fully cognizant of aging curves, is projecting these old hurlers surrendering 730 runs in 2019 compared to 645 in 2018, over half a run more per game. It sees the team scoring 739 runs, less than a tenth of a run fewer per game. The pessimism is based on those aging pitchers.

I get it, we’re going to hear it from Cubs fans. But not only has PECOTA proven to be pretty accurate over the years and particularly recently, it’s also, as illustrated above, got its reasons. But take heart, Cubs faithful: Even if PECOTA’s gloom turns out to be justified, you’ll be able to bask in the warm glow of knowing your team avoided a higher payroll in 2019.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

• The Cubs? Well, they swapped out Tommy La Stella for Daniel Descalso and signed Brad Brach for a year.
• Meanwhile, they Cubs had the NL’s oldest pitching staff last year. The rotation looks like Jon Lester (in his age-35 season), Jose Quintana (30), Cole Hamels (35), Kyle Hendricks (29), and Yu Darvish (32). The closer will be … Brandon Morrow (34)? Pedro Strop (34)? Steve Cishek (32)? Brach (33)? PECOTA, fully cognizant of aging curves, is projecting these old hurlers surrendering 730 runs in 2019 compared to 645 in 2018, over half a run more per game. It sees the team scoring 739 runs, less than a tenth of a run fewer per game. The pessimism is based on those aging pitchers.

I get it, we’re going to hear it from Cubs fans. But not only has PECOTA proven to be pretty accurate over the years and particularly recently, it’s also, as illustrated above, got its reasons. But take heart, Cubs faithful: Even if PECOTA’s gloom turns out to be justified, you’ll be able to bask in the warm glow of knowing your team avoided a higher payroll in 2019.

Wait, hang on.

But I was told here that PECOTA projection was trash and that the Cubs were likely going to win 95-100 games this year?!

 

[JimJohnson]

Strange. I've been told Cubs would be fine.