Pence's contract: Sets market or abnormally high?

[beckdawg]

Last year, outside of Hamiltion's monster contract the market was fairly soft on position players. For example, Upton got the second best deal at about $15 mil/year. I'm thinking Pence's deal may screw the rest of the teams in the market for OF's. At $18 mil/year he really drives up the value. I had been expecting Choo to be in the Swisher range based off his production. But, if Pence is a $18 mil/year guy.... what's Choo? $16 mil/year+? The more I think about it the more I see the cubs picking up a Crisp/Dejesus type assuming their options aren't picked up.

 

[HurricaneDij39]

Yeah, he got overpaid, but it makes sense for the Giants. Now the question is if Choo is the right fit here. He'd be beneficial in that he'd make a division rival considerably weaker, but he'd just another OF option that can't hit lefties.

DeJesus did his time in Chicago and there's no reason to bring him back. I suppose I'd be OK with Crisp.

 

[CSF77]

LF: Lake/Bog
CF: Sweeney
RF: Schierholtz/?
3B: Valbuena/?
SS: Castro
2B: Barney/Watkins
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo

AAA: Baez, Alcantria, Szczur
AA: Soler, Bryant
A+: Almora


I believe Baez is on they team by the ASG. Alcantra and Szczur by Sept.
Sw
Going by that time frame they could have Castro SS, Valbuena 3B, Rizzo 1B, Open; Filled by Baez in the summer, Schierholtz RF,open , Barney 2B

Now they can go 2 ways about this.

1: Status Que. Let the farm deal with it.
2: Sign temp flips to be back filled.


Now they whole Choo deal...no I do not believe that they will spend 100 mil on anyone except for Tankna at this point and it would be foolish to do so.

They could run Castro, Valbuena, Rizzo, Schierholtz, Sweeney, Lake, Castillo, Barney until June. promote up Baez and plug him in at 2B. Bryant maybe ready by then also.

This is what I would do:

LF: Bog. He has shown some speed and OBA.
CF: Lake pure potential.
RF: Schierholtz. Good plug in bat.

3B: current situation until Bryant takes over
SS: Status que. Lead off.
2B: Barney until Baez promotes. Fend some offers just on his glove on returns.
1B: status Que
C: Status que

Line up 2nd half:
Castro SS
Bog LF
Baez 2B
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Schierholtz RF
Lake CF
Castillo C

This line up should drive in runs. I do not believe a heavy investment is needed going forward. Sure We can say Choo is a upg over Bog but is Choo a bigger impact over Tankna? No he is not. The run production is on Baez, Rizzo and Bryant going forward. As long as they have the 1/2 with OBA in mind they do not need to invest big $$$ into it. An ace yes they need some one better then Shark .. His numbers are #3 now and worse then Wood.

 

[dabynsky]

The question is how much does draft pick compensation depress the market. Guys like Bourn and Swisher who were clearly in the second tier of OFs had their contract numbers depressed by the draft pick compensation. Question is the weak market in OFs cause Choo to break 100 million or does his numbers fall in line with Bourn and Swisher after being tied to compensation.

 

[CSF77]

Has more to do with is a player that doesn't avg 30 HR 100 RBI worth 100 mil. I don't. Choo just brings OBA. His D is sub par. Speed is not game changing. So a UPG over Dejesus. IMO that is not worth what he is asking. I'd rather have them stick in house vs spend big on a OBA. He doesn't bring top end any where else.

 

[Boobaby1]

LF: Lake/Bog
CF: Sweeney
RF: Schierholtz/?
3B: Valbuena/?
SS: Castro
2B: Barney/Watkins
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo

AAA: Baez, Alcantria, Szczur
AA: Soler, Bryant
A+: Almora

I believe Baez is on they team by the ASG. Alcantra and Szczur by Sept.
Sw
Going by that time frame they could have Castro SS, Valbuena 3B, Rizzo 1B, Open; Filled by Baez in the summer, Schierholtz RF,open , Barney 2B

Now they can go 2 ways about this.

1: Status Que. Let the farm deal with it.
2: Sign temp flips to be back filled.


Now they whole Choo deal...no I do not believe that they will spend 100 mil on anyone except for Tankna at this point and it would be foolish to do so.

They could run Castro, Valbuena, Rizzo, Schierholtz, Sweeney, Lake, Castillo, Barney until June. promote up Baez and plug him in at 2B. Bryant maybe ready by then also.

This is what I would do:

LF: Bog. He has shown some speed and OBA.
CF: Lake pure potential.
RF: Schierholtz. Good plug in bat.

3B: current situation until Bryant takes over
SS: Status que. Lead off.
2B: Barney until Baez promotes. Fend some offers just on his glove on returns.
1B: status Que
C: Status que

Line up 2nd half:
Castro SS
Bog LF
Baez 2B
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Schierholtz RF
Lake CF
Castillo C

This line up should drive in runs. I do not believe a heavy investment is needed going forward. Sure We can say Choo is a upg over Bog but is Choo a bigger impact over Tankna? No he is not. The run production is on Baez, Rizzo and Bryant going forward. As long as they have the 1/2 with OBA in mind they do not need to invest big $$$ into it. An ace yes they need some one better then Shark .. His numbers are #3 now and worse then Wood.

Absolutely no way in hell will the Cubs put a 20 million dollar team (36 with Soriano and others) out on the field next year in the first half or the 2nd. Not saying they will have a heavy investment, but that line-up would get one thing..........a number one first round pick.

The Cubs attendance has plummeted to a low not seen since 1998. A team consisting of nothing but farm hands will only guarantee that of growing worse. The Cubs will bring someone in, but I look more for it to be via the trade route.

 

[beckdawg]

Absolutely no way in hell will the Cubs put a 20 million dollar team (36 with Soriano and others) out on the field next year in the first half or the 2nd. Not saying they will have a heavy investment, but that line-up would get one thing..........a number one first round pick.

The Cubs attendance has plummeted to a low not seen since 1998. A team consisting of nothing but farm hands will only guarantee that of growing worse. The Cubs will bring someone in, but I look more for it to be via the trade route.

I tend to agree. At the very least they will add some medium tier FA OF.

 

[theberserkfury]

I don't know... a team with Baez and Bryant on it will definitely draw some more fans...

It's not like those guys are the AAAA farm hands we're used to seeing called up.

 

[Boobaby1]

I don't know... a team with Baez and Bryant on it will definitely draw some more fans...

It's not like those guys are the AAAA farm hands we're used to seeing called up.

Yes, but Theo isn't going to rush those two for sure. He will play it like Rizzo and let them play in AAA for as long as he can. Baez would absolutely have to force his hand in ST, and even then, I would think he would want him/them to progress through the normal chains.

Trust me, he has been extremely patient thus far, and I don't see it changing anytime soon.

 

[beckdawg]

Yes, but Theo isn't going to rush those two for sure. He will play it like Rizzo and let them play in AAA for as long as he can. Baez would absolutely have to force his hand in ST, and even then, I would think he would want him/them to progress through the normal chains.

Trust me, he has been extremely patient thus far, and I don't see it changing anytime soon.

I'd be extremely surprised if Baez or Bryant were up before the cut off for super 2 stuff. It's not just about the money which they've obviously been tight with. But it's also the fact that it escalates your arbitration years.

 

[Boobaby1]

I'd be extremely surprised if Baez or Bryant were up before the cut off for super 2 stuff. It's not just about the money which they've obviously been tight with. But it's also the fact that it escalates your arbitration years.

That too. And there is really no reason as I am speculating with the off-season for the Cubs to bring him up early. He will get a good enough sample size at the end of the year.

Here's to hoping he vaults through AAA like he did the other ranks. :beerbang:

 

[CSF77]

I'd be extremely surprised if Baez or Bryant were up before the cut off for super 2 stuff. It's not just about the money which they've obviously been tight with. But it's also the fact that it escalates your arbitration years.

Did that affect Rizzo? They held him back to just sign him to a deal? Seriously the whole super 2 is being made into a doom and gloom thing. How about this point of view: Rizzo had his swing altered and he needed more AB's to adapt to it. Yes it was pushed out for conscience purposes to the super 2 cut off. But if he did not come over after crapping the bed in SD and going through this whole lowering his hands adjustment he would have been at 1B out of spring and LaHair would have been fighting for RF.

As far as what has been said so far. It is on Baez at this point. If he blows up Iowa they are not going to hold him back. As we saw with Rizzo and Castro they will lock them up.

 

[beckdawg]

Did that affect Rizzo? They held him back to just sign him to a deal? Seriously the whole super 2 is being made into a doom and gloom thing. How about this point of view: Rizzo had his swing altered and he needed more AB's to adapt to it. Yes it was pushed out for conscience purposes to the super 2 cut off. But if he did not come over after crapping the bed in SD and going through this whole lowering his hands adjustment he would have been at 1B out of spring and LaHair would have been fighting for RF.

As far as what has been said so far. It is on Baez at this point. If he blows up Iowa they are not going to hold him back. As we saw with Rizzo and Castro they will lock them up.

They are highly unlikely to buy out their arbitration of Bryant and Baez before they see them in the majors. If they bring them up and start them with the team that makes their negotiations harder when they try to buy them out because of their service time. So, the same applies. I'd assume they will buy them out eventually but like I said no team will do that without seeing them in the majors at least some.

I'd expect Baez to be up after the super 2 stuff and if he performs well they will sign him to a longer term deal like they did with castro and Rizzo and he would presumably start with the team in 2 years.

 

[dabynsky]

They are highly unlikely to buy out their arbitration of Bryant and Baez before they see them in the majors. If they bring them up and start them with the team that makes their negotiations harder when they try to buy them out because of their service time. So, the same applies. I'd assume they will buy them out eventually but like I said no team will do that without seeing them in the majors at least some.

I'd expect Baez to be up after the super 2 stuff and if he performs well they will sign him to a longer term deal like they did with castro and Rizzo and he would presumably start with the team in 2 years.

Well the Rays bought out Evan Longoria after seeing him in the majors for less than a week, but ultimately I think play dictates when these guys get called up. Both players will start in the minors and if the tiing works out to keep them to prevent super 2 great from a financial standpoint. If both players are showing that they are ready than I think they will call them up when appropriate. Super 2 isn't a non-factor, but it is the deciding factor unlike keeping them down for an extra year of control.

 

[CSF77]

They are highly unlikely to buy out their arbitration of Bryant and Baez before they see them in the majors. If they bring them up and start them with the team that makes their negotiations harder when they try to buy them out because of their service time. So, the same applies. I'd assume they will buy them out eventually but like I said no team will do that without seeing them in the majors at least some.

I'd expect Baez to be up after the super 2 stuff and if he performs well they will sign him to a longer term deal like they did with castro and Rizzo and he would presumably start with the team in 2 years.

I believe this ties into who gets the manager gig. If Joe signs there will be more of a sense of urgency going forward. Income wise thier hands are tied for 3 years due to the Rickett's sale contract:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/

What president of baseball operations Theo Epstein desires in a manager is a stronger presence, a persona that will push his office and owner Tom Ricketts toward a championship mentality in a shorter period time than was initially planned. Epstein and Co. are held captive by a depleted baseball revenue stream. Money for the baseball operation will be limited for another three years due to a covenant agreement in the sale language of the team to the Ricketts family.

So luring in Joe would have to be the promice of Baez and Bryant up sooner vs later.

As I have posted them investing in a 2 year deal in both Byrd and McLouth then spending resource into Tankana it would motivate anyone to right the ship. Playing the waiting game and being frugal gets little bites. Should have held the deck if that was the case.