Phil Rogers: 5 Moves to Help the Cubs Get Even Better

[dreadpirateroberts]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/156654330

By Phil Rogers / MLB.com | @philgrogers | 11:51 AM ET

OK, so the Cubs' season ended with a loss -- four in a row, as a matter of fact. But the trip to the National League Championship Series was a thrill ride that included the franchise's biggest season-to-season improvement since 1984, plus postseason victories over the Pirates and Cardinals.

It was a season to be savored, one that will be difficult to top. But that has become the job at hand for Theo Epstein, who said that 2015 was like a beautiful baseball dream.

He wanted a challenge when he came to Chicago, and it's still there. It's not going to be easy to improve on a 97-win finish, but now he has to emulate the Royals and follow one magical season with another.

The least we can do is offer a few suggestions, so here are five moves for the Cubs to make this offseason:

1. Trade for a dominating starter who is under control for at least four seasons.
This is a short list that includes Corey Kluber (12.8 fWAR the past two seasons), Chris Sale (11.4), Jose Quintana (9.9), Chris Archer (8.5), Carlos Carrasco (8.0) and Sonny Gray (6.9).

This would be a more cost-efficient, lower-risk option than signing David Price for six or seven years at an average annual value of $30 million, assuming Max Scherzer is the appropriate comp. Price is a good fit in a lot of ways, but after last year's Jon Lester signing, Price would give the Cubs two 30-something pitchers signed for the next five seasons at a combined $55 million-plus per year.

That's a huge investment for two arms, and the Cubs have the prospect inventory to pull off a huge trade, so they should look that way first.
Both the White Sox and Indians have two starters on this list and are prioritizing hitters, which fits the Cubs' surplus. There's a deal to be made between these teams, if the Cubs will trade either Javier Baez or Jorge Soler and multiple players from a list including Billy McKinney, Albert Almora, Eloy Jimenez, Christian Villanueva, Willson Contreras, Jeimer Candelario and Dan Vogelbach.

2. Trade for Kevin Kiermaier.
Getting the best defensive center fielder in the game won't be easy, but this guy's a perfect fit for Wrigley Field. He's not only from the Midwest, but he has a brother who works on the Wrigley Field grounds crew. He has played for Joe Maddon before. His range and instincts would leave less territory for Kyle Schwarber and Soler to cover on the corners. He won't be easy to get, but going after him is a no-brainer.

It doesn't help that the Rays are still steaming over Maddon's exit. But the Cubs can make it worth Tampa Bay's while to be open-minded. If Chicago can't, Epstein should move on to other options to replace departing free agent Dexter Fowler.

With Addison Russell available to take over the leadoff spot, defense is the priority. The list of guys who fit includes Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Pillar and maybe Leonys Martin (the most available guy on the list). There's talk about free agent Denard Span, but metrics show his fielding is slipping. Rajai Davis or re-signing Austin Jackson is a better bet on a one- or two-year contract.

3. Commit to catching Schwarber once a week.
Schwarber's maximum value comes if he can play regularly behind the plate, and he's made major strides there the past two years. The Cubs can keep Miguel Montero and David Ross and give Schwarber 20-30 starts at catcher next season, which will help evaluate the long-term fit. Montero probably won't be happy losing playing time, but the Cubs actually had a better winning percentage with their other starting catchers (.606) than in Montero's 91 starts (.593).

4. Sign 35-year-old free agent lefty Rich Hill or one of the more conventional second-tier free agent starters like John Lackey or Jeff Samardzija.
Hill, who started his career with the Cubs in the Dusty Baker era, made four starts with the Red Sox in September -- his first in the big leagues since 2009 -- and he was brilliant. Hill had a 1.55 ERA over 29 innings, allowing only 14 hits while striking out 36. You could see why the Cubs tried to trade for him in August, when he was still with Triple-A Pawtucket.

An advantage in signing Hill is he will probably wind up with a short, incentive-heavy deal compared to a three- or four-year commitment for Lackey or Samardzija. Nothing says the Cubs can't sign Hill and Lackey/Samardzija, either. They are committed to being at least seven starters deep when they go to Spring Training next year, although Epstein does speak positively about Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel, his third and fourth starters at present.

5. Extend Jake Arrieta.
The Cubs only control the 22-game winner for two more years before free agency. He earned $3.63 million last year and is projected to be in line for an increase to $10.6 million, according to the mlbtraderumors.com arbitration estimates.

While Arrieta has never been an All-Star, his breakout performance was really a continuation of his work in 2014. Only three starters (Clayton Kershaw, Kluber and Price) have produced more fWAR than Arrieta the past two years. The Cubs should trust those numbers and offer him something like $80 million for four years rather than leaving him on course for free agency after 2017, heading into his age-32 season.

Arrieta is a Scott Boras client, but the right-hander is quick to acknowledge he's thriving in part because of where he is. The Cubs might as well see if wants to stick around a little longer.

And if all of the above fails, there's always the BAFAS plan.

That's "Best Available Free Agent Starter," meaning just throw money at Price. The Cubs have it to spend -- thanks mostly to how little they'll have to pay their young lineup -- and Price is worth it. Signing him is the easiest good move they can make.

 

[CSF77]

1. Trade for a dominating starter who is under control for at least four seasons.
This is a short list that includes Corey Kluber (12.8 fWAR the past two seasons), Chris Sale (11.4), Jose Quintana (9.9), Chris Archer (8.5), Carlos Carrasco (8.0) and Sonny Gray (6.9).

This would be a more cost-efficient, lower-risk option than signing David Price for six or seven years at an average annual value of $30 million, assuming Max Scherzer is the appropriate comp. Price is a good fit in a lot of ways, but after last year's Jon Lester signing, Price would give the Cubs two 30-something pitchers signed for the next five seasons at a combined $55 million-plus per year.

That's a huge investment for two arms, and the Cubs have the prospect inventory to pull off a huge trade, so they should look that way first.
Both the White Sox and Indians have two starters on this list and are prioritizing hitters, which fits the Cubs' surplus. There's a deal to be made between these teams, if the Cubs will trade either Javier Baez or Jorge Soler and multiple players from a list including Billy McKinney, Albert Almora, Eloy Jimenez, Christian Villanueva, Willson Contreras, Jeimer Candelario and Dan Vogelbach.

Sale: Would cost Baez, Schwarber, Johnson and Edwards. That is a realistic offer for him. Gauge it down for each other.

Sure it will save some cash but is it worth breaking up what got you there? Not really. I believe it is worth looking at guys that are not on the team now. Say Almora, McKinney, Vogelbach and Torres. But not any current roster players unless it is Castro or Hammels.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Trading Contreras would be stupid. There are some really silly ideas there. Trading for pitching and trading for a CF, too? Silly. Why break up what got them to the post-season? They need to add, not subtract, if possible. I could see one or the other, not both.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Trading Contreras would be stupid. There are some really silly ideas there. Trading for pitching and trading for a CF, too? Silly. Why break up what got them to the post-season? They need to add, not subtract, if possible. I could see one or the other, not both.

There is no way in hell they trade Contreras. His success allows them to get more value out of Schwarber for a couple of years. Schwarber's never going to be a full time catcher and you'd like to have a lineup in some parks where he's not in LF without losing his bat. Contreras provides a perfect solution and for all the "trade Montero" folks that could be possible next year if Contreras excels this year in AAA. Catchers are hard to find, you don't give one up a year away from the big leagues.

 

[beckdawg]

Sale: Would cost Baez, Schwarber, Johnson and Edwards. That is a realistic offer for him. Gauge it down for each other.

I disagree with this thought process which is not to say Sale wouldn't be expensive. However, that price is basically saying he's completely untouchable and no team would trade that much talent for one player let alone a pitcher. Arguably the most untouchable player ever traded at least in the past 20 years was Miguel Cabrera. He was traded with Dontrelle Willis who while having a down year was still viewed at that time as a top pitcher and was only 26 for Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. Cabrera had already put up 19.5 fWAR thru age 24. Willis had put up 17 fWAR thru age 25. As a comparison thru age 25 Sale has put up 22 fWAR. So, that sort of tells you where the thought on Willis was roughly.

As for the players in that deal, Rabelo Trahern, De La Cruz and Badenhop weren't big prospects. Scouting on the internet was spotty back then but best case on them you're talking about Vogelbach level prospects and I don't think they were even that high given the reporting on them. In other words, the trade basically came down to Miller and Maybin who were top 10-15 prospects at the time.

If you actually historically look at trades they basically come down to one star of basically any caliber is worth a top 10 prospect plus parts tops or two top 100 picks depending on how good the player is. In the case of the Miggy trade, you had two all-star level players and they got two top 15 players plus some other junk. You could perhaps argue that they got less than they could by packaging them together but like I said if you historically look through what players got dealt for you're not looking at much more.

To put that into terms that actually matter for Sale, a realistic price would be something like Baez + Johnson + Vogelbach or 3 players along those lines. I don't know that the white sox would trade him for that but again that is the price you're basically talking about if he were to actually be traded. To further illustrate this, Josh Becket at 26 was traded with Mike Lowell for Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez was a bottom top 100 pitcher and Hanley was basically a top 15 prospect. Others weren't big names. Another example of a top 5ish pitcher was Zack Grienke to the Brewers at 26 which was him + Yuniesky Betancourt and cash to the Milwaukee Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi. In that trade, Escobar was basically a top 15 prospect and Odorizzi and Jefferess were like 90-130ish prospects on the fringe of the top 100. Cain wasn't ranked.

So, there's basically no way you're talking about Baez + Schwarber in any trade for any player except maybe Trout.

 

[knoxville7]

so phil starts off saying the cubs should trade for time controlled pitching, yet at the end of the article says signing price is "the easiest good move they can make." well make up your mind phil!

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I disagree with this thought process which is not to say Sale wouldn't be expensive. However, that price is basically saying he's completely untouchable and no team would trade that much talent for one player let alone a pitcher. Arguably the most untouchable player ever traded at least in the past 20 years was Miguel Cabrera. He was traded with Dontrelle Willis who while having a down year was still viewed at that time as a top pitcher and was only 26 for Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. Cabrera had already put up 19.5 fWAR thru age 24. Willis had put up 17 fWAR thru age 25. As a comparison thru age 25 Sale has put up 22 fWAR. So, that sort of tells you where the thought on Willis was roughly.

As for the players in that deal, Rabelo Trahern, De La Cruz and Badenhop weren't big prospects. Scouting on the internet was spotty back then but best case on them you're talking about Vogelbach level prospects and I don't think they were even that high given the reporting on them. In other words, the trade basically came down to Miller and Maybin who were top 10-15 prospects at the time.

If you actually historically look at trades they basically come down to one star of basically any caliber is worth a top 10 prospect plus parts tops or two top 100 picks depending on how good the player is. In the case of the Miggy trade, you had two all-star level players and they got two top 15 players plus some other junk. You could perhaps argue that they got less than they could by packaging them together but like I said if you historically look through what players got dealt for you're not looking at much more.

To put that into terms that actually matter for Sale, a realistic price would be something like Baez + Johnson + Vogelbach or 3 players along those lines. I don't know that the white sox would trade him for that but again that is the price you're basically talking about if he were to actually be traded. To further illustrate this, Josh Becket at 26 was traded with Mike Lowell for Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez was a bottom top 100 pitcher and Hanley was basically a top 15 prospect. Others weren't big names. Another example of a top 5ish pitcher was Zack Grienke to the Brewers at 26 which was him + Yuniesky Betancourt and cash to the Milwaukee Brewers for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi. In that trade, Escobar was basically a top 15 prospect and Odorizzi and Jefferess were like 90-130ish prospects on the fringe of the top 100. Cain wasn't ranked.

So, there's basically no way you're talking about Baez + Schwarber in any trade for any player except maybe Trout.

Hamels was traded for 3 top 100 prospects and 2 middling relief pitchers. I would say Quintana would be worth about that considering he is a LHP whose stats the last 3 years have been almost identical to Hamels and he will make 1/3 the money over the next 3 years despite being 5 years younger and that's their starter behind Sale. I think it would be impossible for the White Sox to get surplus value for Sale so they wouldn't consider it. Quintana, given their multiple needs, probably makes sense for them to listen. Neither would ever be traded to the Cubs because of the PR situation.

 

[Diehardfan]

Lighten up, boys. It's Phil Rodgers. He's been senile for a number of years.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Lighten up, boys. It's Phil Rodgers. He's been senile for a number of years.

Indeed. Which is why I didn't respond to the meat of it.

 

[beckdawg]

Hamels was traded for 3 top 100 prospects and 2 middling relief pitchers. I would say Quintana would be worth about that considering he is a LHP whose stats the last 3 years have been almost identical to Hamels and he will make 1/3 the money over the next 3 years despite being 5 years younger and that's their starter behind Sale. I think it would be impossible for the White Sox to get surplus value for Sale so they wouldn't consider it. Quintana, given their multiple needs, probably makes sense for them to listen. Neither would ever be traded to the Cubs because of the PR situation.

Well with regard to Hamels, there's quite a bit of difference between 3 prospects in the 50-100 range and a top 15 prospect. I mean think about it this way, would you trade Schwarber for Carl Edwards Jr. and McKinney? I'm guessing no. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Sox will trade Sale despite the fact I would consider it if i were in their situation though I'd likely wait until the trade deadline as Look at the type of trade the cubs pulled out of Shark and Hammel who aren't Sale.

All I'm saying here is that's basically the price point if you were to trade him as to what you'd get. A top 15 prospect plus a top 100ish prospect and someone in the 150-200 range is fair value. If you want to argue Sale could net a top 15 prospect two back end 75-100ish prospects I wouldn't quibble over that but IMO that's literally the top of the market for any player who would actually get traded. And as you can obviously imagine finding a team who is both willing to part with those sort of prospects and have prospects that match what the trader wants isn't always easy so finding a deal that makes sense and nets top end prices doesn't go hand and hand.

As it pertains to the cubs I don't think the Sox really make sense unless they want to deal Sale and I can't imagine why Kenny would every back that move. It's never been his MO.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Well with regard to Hamels, there's quite a bit of difference between 3 prospects in the 50-100 range and a top 15 prospect. I mean think about it this way, would you trade Schwarber for Carl Edwards Jr. and McKinney? I'm guessing no. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Sox will trade Sale despite the fact I would consider it if i were in their situation though I'd likely wait until the trade deadline as Look at the type of trade the cubs pulled out of Shark and Hammel who aren't Sale.

All I'm saying here is that's basically the price point if you were to trade him as to what you'd get. A top 15 prospect plus a top 100ish prospect and someone in the 150-200 range is fair value. If you want to argue Sale could net a top 15 prospect two back end 75-100ish prospects I wouldn't quibble over that but IMO that's literally the top of the market for any player who would actually get traded. And as you can obviously imagine finding a team who is both willing to part with those sort of prospects and have prospects that match what the trader wants isn't always easy so finding a deal that makes sense and nets top end prices doesn't go hand and hand.

As it pertains to the cubs I don't think the Sox really make sense unless they want to deal Sale and I can't imagine why Kenny would every back that move. It's never been his MO.

I don't disagree with any of that. I guess my point was that if the Sox were to trade a pitcher Quintana makes more sense for them. I'm not sure the average fan realizes how good he is.

 

[DanTown]

I love the idea of "trade for guy X, no I don't list what a good value is but just trade for him because he's good/has a brother who works at Wrigley Field".

Also, the trade Monetro group is doing that because there is probably a zero percent chance Montero earns his contract next year. If Ross starts 40 times next year (Lester's starts plus a few extra) and Schwarber starts 40 times next year, you're talking about Monetro maxing out at around 80-85 starts while getting paid 12 million to do it. While I understand his skill set, that's a TON of money to pay a part-time starter when the Cubs are going to have to make choices in FA. Especially when the Cubs have a guy (Contreras) that seemingly projects to be at least a capable MLB C by 2017. If you trade Monetro and find a cheap defensive C, you can then use most of Montero's money signing another bat and/or upgrading the pitching staff.

 

[Boobaby1]

I love the idea of "trade for guy X, no I don't list what a good value is but just trade for him because he's good/has a brother who works at Wrigley Field".

Also, the trade Monetro group is doing that because there is probably a zero percent chance Montero earns his contract next year. If Ross starts 40 times next year (Lester's starts plus a few extra) and Schwarber starts 40 times next year, you're talking about Monetro maxing out at around 80-85 starts while getting paid 12 million to do it. While I understand his skill set, that's a TON of money to pay a part-time starter when the Cubs are going to have to make choices in FA. Especially when the Cubs have a guy (Contreras) that seemingly projects to be at least a capable MLB C by 2017. If you trade Monetro and find a cheap defensive C, you can then use most of Montero's money signing another bat and/or upgrading the pitching staff.

They are paying E-Jax to be off the team, so I am guessing they have no problem paying Montero in a part time duty.

Also figure that his skill set at calling a game is what you are paying for, and frankly, when it comes to the playoffs, I want Montero behind the plate and Schwarber in LF, and Ross with his inept bat to start as few games as possible.

Montero is the perfect bridge until Contreras arrives, and after Ross leaves, Contreras should be the one sliding in as his replacement and honing his craft and learning from Montero for a year.

 

[CSF77]

That Cabrera deal sucked for the fish but they couldn't afford him either. Willis fell apart but even so Det won that deal.

On White Sox and Cubs. Only deal I could see is Sale for Schwarber and some prospects. Schwarber would be the DH there and that team would have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball for then next 6 years. Rotation wise Rondon and Q step up. They get the Cubs to toss in 2quaity RH arms like Johnson and Black. Black most likely hits the pen but a 100 mph arm in the pen is rarely bad.

Cubs would lose a ton of power but it opens LF for McKinney in 2017. Gives Coghlan back LF this year.

Questionable if the team is better off. Losing that production may weigh more than 33 starts over the season.

In many ways the Cubs are better off just making an investment.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Sale WOULD cost that much. Its not just talent/production you're talking about......

In 2015 his salary was 6 mil. Next year 9, 2017 is 12. 2018 and 2019 team, not player, not mutual, but team options at 12.5 and 13.5 mil.

Another factor you left out is that there is no incentive for the white sox to trade him, which makes your position at the bargaining table that much worse. You have a top 4 pitcher in the game cost controlled for the next 4 years, through his early prime years.

Would you trade that?

The white sox are in no rush to get rid of him. They have no plans to ship him off. And Kenny, being the gigantic Special person that he is still thinks the sox are 1 piece away from the playoffs, which is laughable because I just looked at their farm after Carson Fullmer, and LOL.

Also, economics. Sale is the sox's best draw at home games. Fans go to see him pitch, all 17,000 of them half-pack Cellular field. You ever see a game John Danks or Jake Petricia pitches? A full whopping A+ game crowd size is front and center. All 3500 of them.

So while no, he's not worth Schwarber + Baez, and I wouldn't trade both of them for him in the same deal with 2nd tier prospects; that's what its going to cost. The sox hold the upper hand in all negotiations, and you have to convince them that their best young player who isn't in any danger of leaving contractually anytime soon to part with it.

And Kenny, being the Special person I alluded to earlier, couldn't **** something like that up. Or maybe he could. After all, I look at the Adam LaRoche signing and find myself LOL'ing again.


Go after Tyson Ross on the Padres via the trade route. Or get talking with Atlanta. They got a lot of young pitching talent and need RF help.

 

[chibears55]

Sox are not trading Sale and their definitely not going to trade him to the Cubs unless the Cubs give them everyone and that not happening. ..
I think it time to stop dreaming of Sale in a Cubs uniform ..

Montero going no where. ..
Same duo returns in 2016 in Montero and Ross..

It set up perfect for them if nobody shits the bed..

Contreras will play in AAA this year and backup Montero in 2017..

Ross will be gone after 2016 and Schwarber will only be the 3rd Catcher /emergency catcher in 2016 and beyond. .

 

[knoxville7]

I think that the cubs don't have one set plan in mind. they have multiple plans, contingency plans for whatever happens over the course of the offseason. Montero could stay on the team or he could be traded for salary relief if the cubs were to sign a david price or Jason heyward, etc. I think that the only "untouchables" on the roster are Rizzo, Bryant, schwarber, Russell, and arrieta(lester bc of his contract). anyone else could be had in the right deal I would imagine, but that's not to say the cubs are or should be eager to trade guys like castro, baez, and soler either. personally, I say hold onto everyone and just sign david price

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think that the cubs don't have one set plan in mind. they have multiple plans, contingency plans for whatever happens over the course of the offseason. Montero could stay on the team or he could be traded for salary relief if the cubs were to sign a david price or Jason heyward, etc. I think that the only "untouchables" on the roster are Rizzo, Bryant, schwarber, Russell, and arrieta(lester bc of his contract). anyone else could be had in the right deal I would imagine, but that's not to say the cubs are or should be eager to trade guys like castro, baez, and soler either. personally, I say hold onto everyone and just sign david price

I don't think Arrieta is untouchable at all. If you signed Price or Grienke and someone made you a great offer for Arrieta's last two years you would have to listen. You can't possibly afford all three for longer than Arrieta's contract so why wouldn't you entertain offers? I don't think they're signing Price or Greinke so it's a moot point but there are circumstances where you would trade him. Again if they do sign one of those guys I would say Arrieta almost certainly gets traded next offseason.

 

[knoxville7]

I don't think Arrieta is untouchable at all. If you signed Price or Grienke and someone made you a great offer for Arrieta's last two years you would have to listen. You can't possibly afford all three for longer than Arrieta's contract so why wouldn't you entertain offers? I don't think they're signing Price or Greinke so it's a moot point but there are circumstances where you would trade him. Again if they do sign one of those guys I would say Arrieta almost certainly gets traded next offseason.

simple, because you are trying to win a world series is why you don't trade arrieta. a rotation of arrieta, price, lester, Hendricks, and hammel would be good enough to do that. so unless someone offers you a ridiculous deal for arrieta where you get an ace back in return plus prospects or something then you don't trade arrieta. I get your point about in two years having to re sign him or let him go in FA, but you worry about that in two years imo. front load a price deal perhaps so that the latter years of his contract aren't as bad and you can have more $$ available to resign some of the young position players down the road like Bryant and schwarber

 

[JZsportsfan]

That stat that says the Cubs had a better win percentage with Ross/Schwarber catching as opposed to Montero catching is unfair. Ross caught Lester and occasionally Arrieta, Montero had the rest

I would be shocked if the Cubs traded Montero, unless some team is desperate for him and pays forward a huge deal