Quade Concerned About Velocity Drop With Marmol

[dabynsky]

There were some interesting articles by Cubs bloggers posted on Carlos Marmol yesterday. I thought I would share them with you guys. The first is from obstructed view about Marmol's rate of BABIP:
BABIP Regression | Articles

Prior to the Cubs signing Carlos Marmol to a 3-year extension this past offseason, there was a lot of talk about how Marmol was one of those guys who could have a very low BABIP. His BABIP as a reliever since 2007 had been .241, which is well below the average and even below the average for an extreme fly ball pitcher. It's well over .300 this season and since the beginning of 2010 his BABIP is .312. That's higher than we'd expect even for an average pitcher, but quite a bit higher for someone like Marmol.

The increased BABIP results in an increased batting average allowed and thanks to Marmol's poor control, he's allowed batters to have an OBP of .357, which is quite a bit worse than league average

So that article addresses what is going on with Marmol. Increase in BABIP combined with poor control has resulted in more opponents getting on base, and when more opponents get on base you give up more runs, and when you give up more runs you blow more saves. This next article is the one that was really interesting because it might address why the BABIP has increased by nearly 30 points this year and 70 from 2009 (also a healthy increase of LD% from 13% to 19% to 20%).

The next article comes from Harry Pavlidis. Full article is here, but this chart here shows the velocity of every Marmol fastball and slider from 2007 to the present. The top range is the fastball velocity and the bottom is the slider velocity. Two important things should stand out, and that the fastball is getting slower and the slider is getting faster meaning less separation between pitches which is a bad (really bad for a two pitch pitcher).

Read the whole article because it has interesting data on the movement of his pitches which is also becoming similar. Which again goes back to the point I was making earlier about Marmol's recent struggles is more due to his pitches becoming less effective than people "figuring him out."

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

ya it seems he has lost a bit of control and the gap speed between his slider and fastball has closed..which makes it easier for hitters to focus on timing wise..

 

[nwfisch]

Should have traded Marmol last year :smoke:

 

[brett05]

Should have traded Marmol last year :smoke:

Clearly, but who would have done that?

 

[dabynsky]

I'm more and more concerned about this being a sign of impending arm issues with Marmol given the drop in velocity. Hopeful it is just a period of dead arm and gets better with a littel rest because he has been used a lot in the past few years.

 

[nwfisch]

Clearly, but who would have done that?

Someone would have wanted a closer under team control for awhile.

 

[85Bears4life]

I would dangle him out there this offseason to see what kind of interest there would be for him.

Only deal him if someone makes hendry an offer he cant refuse...

 

[daddies3angels]

I also think the decrease in FB hurts him. Now guys dont have to worry about FB and just wait on slider that even looks flatter.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I would dangle him out there this offseason to see what kind of interest there would be for him.

Only deal him if someone makes hendry an offer he cant refuse...

Who would make such an offer when Marmol's stock is low?

 

[DewsSox79]

Who would make such an offer when Marmol's stock is low?

you werent going to go from fleecing a team to getting shit back.

The book is out on this guy. Again, stand there without a bat, wait until you get runners on, force him to throw a fast ball, and you win. simple.

 

[2SeamHeat]

I also think the decrease in FB hurts him. Now guys dont have to worry about FB and just wait on slider that even looks flatter.

He has to throw the FB more than once every 50 pitches for it to matter.

Honestly, I think Marmol's case is a sign of some of the good Rothschild did. I did not like him overall as pitching coach.... but at least he did his job. Riggins waits until it's too late to resolve an issue. I seriously doubt he's had any effect on any of the pitchers whatsoever. Marmol had his strings of rough outings before Rothschild left, but nothing like he has had this year. He always got out of them, and dominated for weeks on end... if not the remainder of the season.

Also, does anyone at all have a single doubt that Larry would have gotten Demp out of his early season funk with a couple of outings... rather than nearly an entire month?

Maybe Silva was right, Riggins isn't MLB caliber. Never thought I'd miss a half-ineffective coach so much.

 

[X]

you werent going to go from fleecing a team to getting shit back.

The book is out on this guy. Again, stand there without a bat, wait until you get runners on, force him to throw a fast ball, and you win. simple.

Dude, that's just Cubs hate. He's had a rough cpl months, but if it was "simple" as you said, then the closer on the Cubs, who several on here make sure to point out repeatedly are one of the worst teams in baseball, wouldn't have 28 saves...

 

[DewsSox79]

Dude, that's just Cubs hate. He's had a rough cpl months, but if it was "simple" as you said, then the closer on the Cubs, who several on here make sure to point out repeatedly are one of the worst teams in baseball, wouldn't have 28 saves...

not cubs hate at all, as i have expressed that my hatred for them is about as much as the orioles....which is none. im indifferent, I look at them as just another team.

Do you watch him pitch? do you realize that closers come and go? Especially slider pitchers? his slider deceived people, and no one knew what he was about. The approach to him has changed across the league. Be Patient....take pitches.....instead of going down 0-1 and 0-2, let him throw his slider out of the zone....get OB, and wait for a mistake.

 

[Capt. Serious]

Paul Sullivan called him an elite pitcher.

Sorry, don't see it.

 

[nwfisch]

He has elite talent, but he also can be elite at being bad.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

marmol when his velocity and slider were at a large speed difference was a great pen guy

but he just has lost control...its sad really

 

[The Bandit]

Fuck Marmol. I'm sick and tired of watching his herky jerky throwing style that can't even locate the plate most of the time. The only reason he is successful, was successful is because that Slider had so much bite to it that it was impossible to hold off on. Now everyone has learned to just wait and make him throw strikes don't just swing at the first pitch you get.