Something That Needs To Be Said On Our Clutch Play

[??? ??????]

I already see some people knocking Ben Gordon for missing that potential game winner at the end of regulation. Nothing this guy has done has cost us a game. His miss was with the game tied, and did not cost the Bulls the game.

In game 1, he scored 12 points in the fourth, Bulls won. In game 2, he matched Allen shot for shot, but Allen just got the last shot. Game 4, Gordon hit the big game tying three, with a torn hamstring. Game 5, he makes the three free throws to tie it at 104, and before that, the potential game winner, giving the Bulls a 2 point lead.

Why aren't we closing them out? No, not Gordon not performing, because the guy is. He can't hit every single shot, and that should be understood. The problem is our cruddy defense.

Ben Gordon, has 2 game winners I believe this year (both against Detroit), and then countless game tiers. Why are his game winning shots down? Not because Gordon is less clutch, our defense is just crappier.

In 2004-2005 and 2006-2007, Gordon's two best clutch seasons, it seemed like we almost always came up with the big stop. That put Gordon in a position to be the hero on the other end.

I think this year, actually, he has hit more big shots than ever before in his career. It just seems like, after Gordon hits the big shot, we go and give up the big shot on the other end. This past game is a great example, Gordon hits the big shot past Marbury. Could have been the game winner, but we then go and give up the game tying shot to Pierce.

I think when Luol Deng comes back that will help. But we need to get Derrick Rose off the court in the clutch. The guy's one of the worst defenders in the NBA. The NBA playoffs are no time for him to get a learning experience out of getting burned on defense. We also should put more size on Pierce, maybe Linton Johnson or Tim Thomas. Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas also have to step up and play strong (Noah seems there, this is more so directed at Thomas). And maybe go with Hinrich and Gordon in the backcourt (or Hinrich and Hunter now that Gordon's injured).

I think if we had our defense up to a level where we could get the key stops, Gordon would have a good 4-5 more game winners this year, if not more. When I have some free time, I might go through the game logs, to see how many potential Gordon game winners our defense has busted this year.

We're putting Ben Gordon in mission impossible situations, where he needs to be a miracle worker, because we aren't executing on the defensive end. If we got the stop, it would make Gordon's job as Mr. Clutch a lot easier.

 

[Shakes]

If we dont give them easy fast break points after being up double digits and there is no clutch time. I think people worry too much about the ends of games ... the key to winning consistently is to not allow the game to be close at the end. I know close games are exciting and so this great mythos of clutch play has been built up, but really the stats show you may as well toss a coin when the game is close. Good teams win more games because they make more games not close, not because they're better at winning close games.

And for what it's worth, according to 82games of our regular players only Duhon and PJ shot worse in the clutch than Gordon in 06/07. The clutch player of that season? Nocioni.

 

[??? ??????]

Shakes wrote:

If we dont give them easy fast break points after being up double digits and there is no clutch time. I think people worry too much about the ends of games ... the key to winning consistently is to not allow the game to be close at the end. I know close games are exciting and so this great mythos of clutch play has been built up, but really the stats show you may as well toss a coin when the game is close. Good teams win more games because they make more games not close, not because they're better at winning close games.

And for what it's worth, according to 82games of our regular players only Duhon and PJ shot worse in the clutch than Gordon in 06/07. The clutch player of that season? Nocioni.

Gordon led the league in game winners in 06-07.

Gordon shot 53.6 TS% in the clutch that year. Not his best for overall clutch play, and he didn't shoot an elite percentage on the game winners (actually about the average for game winning shots fwiw...just not what's considered a generally good shooting percentage).

 

[Shakes]

According to 82games he shot .398 EFG% in the clutch in 06/07, which is where I got only Duhon and PJ being worse.

I'm not really hung up on that stat though, I don't blame Gordon for missing a shot just because it happened to be the last shot. The shots all count the same, I'm yet to see any hard evidence that having good end of game performers vs start of game performers actually helps your team win more games. I find it suspicious that even over on statistics forums like APBR metrics the arguments you'll find for clutch play mattering more tend to be hand wavey, rather than backed up by analysis.

 

[dougthonus]

The problem with Gordon's EFG% is that we often fell into a pattern of "it's a clutch moment, hand the ball to Gordon and get out of the way". Gordon's not that kind of player. He's always been a great clutch shooter, but he's often struggled as a clutch creator.