When the White Sox decided to not re-sign eight year tenured catcher AJ Pierzynski, and decided to roll the dice with the young Tyler Flowers, there was a bit of an uproar from south sider fans. Pierzynski was loved by Sox fans because of the tangibles, starting catcher on Chicago’s first baseball championship in 88 years, “grindy”, had that “attitude”, and I’m sure his last name had something to do with it too.
Pierzynski’s career year in 2012 when the 35 year old put up a slash line of 278/326/501 (827), with a wRC+ of 118 and 27 home runs; history will tell you that when a player in a contract year has a big year, they’re usually rewarded with a big contract. Teams are quick to hand over money to players based off of their past, and not their projected realistic futures. See the Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder, and other contracts.
Precedence says that AJ would not only have been re-signed, but also overpaid. Luckily, the new GM in Chicago, Rich Hahn, doesn’t do the old school. I don’t know AJ Personally, so I can’t say from a clubhouse, or from a leadership point of view if deciding to not bring pack Pierzynski is the right move. I can, however, from a numbers perspective, let the stats speak for me.
From 2005, to 2012, Pierzynski’s slash line was: 279/318/424 (742), which going by OPS+ (93) was a little bit below average for a catcher. To cherry pick a pit, let’s remove Pierzynski’s career 2012 season from that line: 279/317/414 (730); much didn’t change except the slugging. It’s fair to say that if Pierzynski were re-signed by Chicago that Pierzynski’s 2011 is much more realistic than his 2012.
Pierzynski’s defense has also always been below average. For his career, he had a DRS (defensive runs saved) of -20. For the record, a 0 is average, and -15 is awful. The only thing positive you can say about Pierzynski’s defense is that he usually starts 120+ games as a catcher.
As much as we all enjoyed 2005, that isn’t enough reason to re-sign an aging catcher that is overall below average with the glove, and the bat. And having a career year at age 35 shouldn’t give anyone a second thought on the issue.
When Rick Hahn was asked at Sox fest why they chose to go with Flowers, over bringing back Pierzynski, Hahn said they believed in Flowers’ defense. Flowers was regarded as a slugging catcher, who would probably have to move to first, when he was first acquired from the Braves in the deal that sent over Javier Vazquez following the 2008 season.
Albeit sample sizes, every season since 2009 in the majors Flowers’ DRZ has improved, from 3, to 5 in 2012. And again, 0 is average, and 5 is above average. If Flowers can keep that up over the long haul that is a huge upgrade for the backstop position. For comparisons sake, if Flowers hovered around a DRS of 5 in 2013 over a full season, he would be in company with Alex Avila, and Matt Weiters.
Projecting the bat is a bit harder. I would guess that Flower played regularly, and doesn’t flame out, or get injured; he should at least match what Chicago got from Pierzynski in between 2011 and 2012 regular assuming there isn’t any development. I think 8 home runs low balls him (he did hit 7 in 52 games), but I think 27 is expecting a lot. A slash line of 282/330/454 (785), and about 18 home runs is realistic to me.
Again, projections are meaningless, and everyone has their own opinion on how to evaluate them. Keep in mind though, that in 52 games Tyler Flowers had a WAR of 1.2, over a full season that projects to roughly 3.6 wins, give or take. Just to put that into perspective, in Pierzynski’s 8 year tenure, he only put up a combined WAR of 10.2, with an average of 1.3. That is assuming, however, that Flowers can keep up that sample size over a long season. We don’t know what we’ll expect from Flowers in 2013.
As far as the pitching staff is concerned, some pitchers may fare better with Flowers, and other may fare worse. It is hard to accurately gage, however, due to the small sample sizes.
Tyler Flowers:
Chris Sale: 4.82 ERA / .754 OPS against (6 games)
Jake Peavy: 2.66 ERA / .625 OPS against (12 games)
Gavin Floyd: 2.92 ERA / .706 OPS against (7 games)
Jose Quintana: 4.00 ERA / .601 OPS against (5 games)
AJ Pierzynski:
Chris Sale: 2.62 ERA / .639 OPS against (24 games)
Jake Peavy: 3.82 ERA / .699 OPS against (22 games)
Gavin Floyd: 4.98 ERA / .791 OPS against (21 games)
Jose Quintana: 3.70 ERA .789 OPS against (21 games)
All things considered, it was time to let AJ walk. We’re all going to miss his presence, and we’re all deeply greatfull for his contributions for the 2005 season. But everyone has to leave at some point, and with a young defensive catcher with power potential waiting in the wings, this was the perfect time to say au revior, Monsiuer Pierzynski.The only starter with 10+ starts with Flowers was Jake Peavy, and he pitched better with Flowers than with Pierzynski. Chris Sale, and Jose Quintana did worse, but again, it is sample size where in such a small amount of games numbers are blown to extreme highs, and extreme lows.
All things considered, it was time to let AJ walk. We’re all going to miss his presence, and we’re all deeply greatfull for his contributions for the 2005 season. But everyone has to leave at some point, and with a young defensive catcher with power potential waiting in the wings, this was the perfect time to say au revior, Monsiuer Pierzynski.
