Starlin Castro Thread

[theunfortunatecubsfan]

In light of my recent post about Starlin Castro, I'm wondering (strictly for conversational motives) how Cubs fans think the kid will do in the upcoming season.

I'm always up for a sensible conversation, so let's hear it!

 

[Jntg4]

I expect more of the same from Castro.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

My prediction is big: He'll be an all-star this season.

 

[poodski]

I dont expect a lot different. I think he will go through a slump this year but overall be similar.

Perhaps a little more in the power department and a little less in the avg department.

 

[WearShades]

I wouldn't be surprised if he has a little more trouble hitting this year, but I'd expect him to get a few more walks. .280-.310 batting average, .350-.370 OBP high single digit HRs and 15-20 stolen bases.

 

[theunfortunatecubsfan]

My prediction is big: He'll be an all-star this season.

All star is a bit much, although he could make the team simply by default, meaning the Cubs would have no other worthy all star options

I really don't think that will be the case, since seemingly everyone is entitled to a big first half, but then regress to their norm by the time it's all said and done (i'm looking at you, Carlos Silva)

 

[theunfortunatecubsfan]

I wouldn't be surprised if he has a little more trouble hitting this year, but I'd expect him to get a few more walks. .280-.310 batting average, .350-.370 OBP high single digit HRs and 15-20 stolen bases.

OBP may be a bit higher than what I think, considering his ~5% BB rate, but I think along the same lines, to accompany better fielding this season.

 

[poodski]

All star is a bit much, although he could make the team simply by default, meaning the Cubs would have no other worthy all star options

I really don't think that will be the case, since seemingly everyone is entitled to a big first half, but then regress to their norm by the time it's all said and done (i'm looking at you, Carlos Silva)

Lol you mean the second half where he was hurt an pitched 11 innings?

If healthy Silva will be fine.

 

[theunfortunatecubsfan]

Lol you mean the second half where he was hurt an pitched 11 innings?

If healthy Silva will be fine.

You have to look at Silva's career, and figure out what's the norm, and what's the outlier.

Adding on 2.0 K/9 cannot entirely be attributed to the change in leagues. Also, Silva's percieved success is most likely due to a hot april/may

 

[poodski]

You have to look at Silva's career, and figure out what's the norm, and what's the outlier.

Adding on 2.0 K/9 cannot entirely be attributed to the change in leagues. Also, Silva's percieved success is most likely due to a hot april/may

No the league is not going to be the complete difference in moving across leagues but working with Rothschild definitely could have been the reason. It has been documented that he has been able to increase players K/9 over their seasons, and last year was no different for Silva.

There is something definitely odd about Silva's numbers, but his xFIP wasn't all that crazy last year. He put up a 3.9 for the season which sure is a bit low, but his career is at a 4.43. You figure that a change in league probably drops that down by .25 or so, and its not all that far out of the norm. A 4.2 is definitely within the margin of error, and can be attributed to him actually being healthy for the first time in years as well as changing leagues. Not to mention working with one of the best pitching coaches in the business.

What I find significantly amazing this year are his projections. The fans project him at a 4.08 FIP, and Tango with him at a 4.15 but yet they project his ERA to be 4.70 and 4.73 respectively. Which doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

If Silva is healthy then he can truly be the pitcher that he was from 2004-2007 with the Twins, and his 2010 wasn't all that far off from those.

So I think you can consider 2006, 2008 and 2009 to the outliers, not the other way around. Silva IMO is an above average major league pitcher. I am not sure if Cashner is.

 

[theunfortunatecubsfan]

No the league is not going to be the complete difference in moving across leagues but working with Rothschild definitely could have been the reason.

A 4.2 is definitely within the margin of error, and can be attributed to him actually being healthy for the first time in years as well as changing leagues. Not to mention working with one of the best pitching coaches in the business.

So I think you can consider 2006, 2008 and 2009 to the outliers, not the other way around. Silva IMO is an above average major league pitcher. I am not sure if Cashner is.

Here's the thing about Rothschild, he moved to Tampa. So the 'Rothschild Effect would potentially be null and void, unless Mark Riggins (the new PC) can have similar success.

I also don't think Andrew Cashner is an above average ML pitcher, however I think he will be with 85% certainty.

To label Silva as an above average major league pitcher based on one season, and especially a small sample size (as one with sabermetric knowledge would certainly know), is a bit of a stretch.

 

[poodski]

Here's the thing about Rothschild, he moved to Tampa. So the 'Rothschild Effect would potentially be null and void, unless Mark Riggins (the new PC) can have similar success.

I also don't think Andrew Cashner is an above average ML pitcher, however I think he will be with 85% certainty.

To label Silva as an above average major league pitcher based on one season, and especially a small sample size (as one with sabermetric knowledge would certainly know), is a bit of a stretch.

Well Silva has shown he has been above average. 2006 is really the only year he has been a below average pitcher. 2008 he was below average, but just barely (his WAR projected out to 200 IP would have been 1.8, so just 10% below average). 2009 he was injured.

So of his 7 years as a starting pitcher, he has been above average 4 of them. Average once, hurt once and terrible once.

I will call that an above average pitcher.

Also Rothschild is with the Yankees now.

 

[Captain Obvious]

No the league is not going to be the complete difference in moving across leagues but working with Rothschild definitely could have been the reason. It has been documented that he has been able to increase players K/9 over their seasons, and last year was no different for Silva.

There is something definitely odd about Silva's numbers, but his xFIP wasn't all that crazy last year. He put up a 3.9 for the season which sure is a bit low, but his career is at a 4.43. You figure that a change in league probably drops that down by .25 or so, and its not all that far out of the norm. A 4.2 is definitely within the margin of error, and can be attributed to him actually being healthy for the first time in years as well as changing leagues. Not to mention working with one of the best pitching coaches in the business.

What I find significantly amazing this year are his projections. The fans project him at a 4.08 FIP, and Tango with him at a 4.15 but yet they project his ERA to be 4.70 and 4.73 respectively. Which doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

If Silva is healthy then he can truly be the pitcher that he was from 2004-2007 with the Twins, and his 2010 wasn't all that far off from those.

So I think you can consider 2006, 2008 and 2009 to the outliers, not the other way around. Silva IMO is an above average major league pitcher. I am not sure if Cashner is.

While I completely agree with you, I'm kind of split on who should be in the rotation. One the one hand Silva is better and I want him in there to get traded to another team. But, on the other hand, Cashner is the future, this season isn't looking great, and I would like to see what he can do. I think that the perfect scenario has Silva having a good two months, being traded, we call up Cash Money from AAA, and he finishes the season. But, I think that we will see Cash Money in the rotation for the whole year, which will bite the Cubs in the ass.

Here's the thing about Rothschild, he moved to Tampa. So the 'Rothschild Effect would potentially be null and void, unless Mark Riggins (the new PC) can have similar success.

I also don't think Andrew Cashner is an above average ML pitcher, however I think he will be with 85% certainty.

To label Silva as an above average major league pitcher based on one season, and especially a small sample size (as one with sabermetric knowledge would certainly know), is a bit of a stretch.

No, the Rothschild Effect would not be null and void. He worked with Silva last year. It's not like all that just goes out the window.

 

[Jntg4]

While I completely agree with you, I'm kind of split on who should be in the rotation. One the one hand Silva is better and I want him in there to get traded to another team. But, on the other hand, Cashner is the future, this season isn't looking great, and I would like to see what he can do. I think that the perfect scenario has Silva having a good two months, being traded, we call up Cash Money from AAA, and he finishes the season. But, I think that we will see Cash Money in the rotation for the whole year, which will bite the Cubs in the ass.


No, the Rothschild Effect would not be null and void. He worked with Silva last year. It's not like all that just goes out the window.

I'm not so sure Silva is better any more. He totally feel apart with injuries and had to be taken out with discomfort or tightness early almost every game he did play, even in the first half. He is more experienced, but I'm not sold that we will see the first half Silva.

Cashner, he struggled a little last season, but his ERA was 2 before the game he and Marshall were both hammered in Colorado and the Houston game, which brought his ERA up to 8, and he brought it back down to about 4.4. Not sure how his saber stats were at that time or immediately after, but he was doing great, had to bad games, got his confidence back, and coasted. Of course, that was as a reliever. But he was damn good in the minors as a starter, and it could translate to a good season as a starter. If not, then maybe it did bite us in the ass, but at least we know.