beckdawg
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So the title is kinda click bait-y but I think this is an important discussion. Defense in baseball is very undersold. People want to harp on the cubs inability to develop pitching and all that yada yada.... What if I told you that since 2016 the cubs are 3rd in ERA- which is essentially a way of normalizing ERA based on where you play and making "average" 100 where 99 is 1% better than league average...etc. #1 on that list is cleveland who's largely viewed as one of if not the best organizations at developing pitching. #2 on that list is the dodgers who are also in that conversation. Cleveland is a 81 ERA- or 19% better than league average over that span. LA is 85. The cubs are an 88.
I bring this up because the talent level in pitching those two organizations have had and the talent the cubs have had aren't even in the same area code. That obviously begs the question....HOW?! The most obvious answer is team defense. Over that same time span, the cubs ERA - FIP is -0.36. In other words, FIP thinks the cubs defense has saved them over1/3 of a run vs what they should have put up. To put some context on all of this, the cubs 3.73 team ERA is effectively like Lance Lynn(3.67 2019 ERA) vs their FIP of 4.09 which is effectively Wade Miley(3.98 2019 ERA). Lynn made $9.333 mil in 2019. Miley made $4.5 mil. Keep in mind this isn't just 1 player though. This is over 12 or 13 pitchers.
Now like I said, the title is kind of click bait-y but I mentioned Heyward for a specific reason. The thing with defense is you need to be good all around. One or two real bad spots can really drag you down. That actually brings up another interesting discussion with regard to Joc vs Schwarber this year but I'll save that one for another day.
Heyward is viewed as an albatross contract by fans. If I remember correctly, he signed for 8/$186 which is $23.25 mil a year AAV. Quantifying exactly how much he matters in the overall team defense is hard. But it's worth considering how the cubs have managed to piece together bullpens off the scrap heap year after year. ConsiderJeremy Jefferies last year. The cubs signed him for $850k. He posted a 1.54 ERA vs his 4.09 FIP. San Diego last year paid Drew Pomeranz $8 mil to put up a 1.45 ERA. I think he's likely a bigger impact than this but if you say Heyward is worth 1/8th that value difference that is rough $1 mil and that value is likely applied 12-13 times for all of the pitchers.
In other words, that $23.25 mil AAV when you factor in what the team defense is saving quickly becomes less. And the other thing with top pitching... you can't always just go out and buy that. So being able to get effective years out of middling starters is a big fucking deal. People always used to talk about the Cardinal magic where they'd take some shit starter and he'd have a career year. What if I told you from 2000-2010 the cardinals rated #1 in ERA - FIP with -0.31? This is literally the same playbook the cubs have had the past several years. Those cardinal teams were really strong defensively with Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds and Molina.
Where does this leave us going forward? Well first off yes the cubs do need to develop better. But I think you have to keep in mind when they grab someone like Davies that this impact of team defense is a big deal because he's going to play up with a good defense behind him. Additionally, I think the cubs have been really smart with this approach because yeah Heyward's contract can be a bit of an eye sore but I'd rather have 1 bad contract like his and have his defense playing a big impact than to be paying terrible reliever contracts. Obviously, Ideally you'd get heyward hitting like you hoped when he signed but my point is more the way they invested money is smarter than going after relievers. I also hope to see them continue to focus on strong defenders even if it comes at a cost to their bats.
I bring this up because the talent level in pitching those two organizations have had and the talent the cubs have had aren't even in the same area code. That obviously begs the question....HOW?! The most obvious answer is team defense. Over that same time span, the cubs ERA - FIP is -0.36. In other words, FIP thinks the cubs defense has saved them over1/3 of a run vs what they should have put up. To put some context on all of this, the cubs 3.73 team ERA is effectively like Lance Lynn(3.67 2019 ERA) vs their FIP of 4.09 which is effectively Wade Miley(3.98 2019 ERA). Lynn made $9.333 mil in 2019. Miley made $4.5 mil. Keep in mind this isn't just 1 player though. This is over 12 or 13 pitchers.
Now like I said, the title is kind of click bait-y but I mentioned Heyward for a specific reason. The thing with defense is you need to be good all around. One or two real bad spots can really drag you down. That actually brings up another interesting discussion with regard to Joc vs Schwarber this year but I'll save that one for another day.
Heyward is viewed as an albatross contract by fans. If I remember correctly, he signed for 8/$186 which is $23.25 mil a year AAV. Quantifying exactly how much he matters in the overall team defense is hard. But it's worth considering how the cubs have managed to piece together bullpens off the scrap heap year after year. ConsiderJeremy Jefferies last year. The cubs signed him for $850k. He posted a 1.54 ERA vs his 4.09 FIP. San Diego last year paid Drew Pomeranz $8 mil to put up a 1.45 ERA. I think he's likely a bigger impact than this but if you say Heyward is worth 1/8th that value difference that is rough $1 mil and that value is likely applied 12-13 times for all of the pitchers.
In other words, that $23.25 mil AAV when you factor in what the team defense is saving quickly becomes less. And the other thing with top pitching... you can't always just go out and buy that. So being able to get effective years out of middling starters is a big fucking deal. People always used to talk about the Cardinal magic where they'd take some shit starter and he'd have a career year. What if I told you from 2000-2010 the cardinals rated #1 in ERA - FIP with -0.31? This is literally the same playbook the cubs have had the past several years. Those cardinal teams were really strong defensively with Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds and Molina.
Where does this leave us going forward? Well first off yes the cubs do need to develop better. But I think you have to keep in mind when they grab someone like Davies that this impact of team defense is a big deal because he's going to play up with a good defense behind him. Additionally, I think the cubs have been really smart with this approach because yeah Heyward's contract can be a bit of an eye sore but I'd rather have 1 bad contract like his and have his defense playing a big impact than to be paying terrible reliever contracts. Obviously, Ideally you'd get heyward hitting like you hoped when he signed but my point is more the way they invested money is smarter than going after relievers. I also hope to see them continue to focus on strong defenders even if it comes at a cost to their bats.
