The Bears Have Over-Achieved This Year: Here Are Numbers To Prove It

[BearDownChicagoBears]

Lets look at the game-by-game projections of all of the teams in the 2021 NFL Playoffs and break down how they would have been projected to finish in Vegas judging by the weekly lines of each game. Compare that to the actual overall record of each team.



Kansas City Chiefs: 14-2 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 14-2)

Texans (-9.5)
Chargers (-8.5)
Ravens (+3.5)
Patriots (-11)
Raiders (-11)
Bills (-5.5)
Broncos (-7)
Jets (-19.5)
Panthers (-9.5)
WEEK 10 BYE
Raiders (-7.5)
Buccaneers (-3.5)
Broncos (-13)
Dolphins (-7)
Saints (-3)
Falcons (-10.5)
Chargers (+3.5)

Buffalo Bills: 12-4 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 13-3)

Jets (-6.5)
Dolphins (-5.5)
Rams (-1)
Raiders (-3)
Titans (-3.5)
Chiefs (+5.5)
Jets (-9.5)
Patriots (-3.5)
Seahawks (+3)
Cardinals (+2.5)
WEEK 11 BYE
Chargers (-4.5)
49ers (+1.5)
Steelers (-1.5)
Broncos (-6)
Patriots (-7)
Dolphins (-1.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 12-4)

Giants (-6)
Broncos (-6)
Texans (-4)
WEEK 4 BYE
Eagles (-7.5)
Browns (-3)
Titans (+1)
Ravens (+3.5)
Cowboys (-14.5)
Bengals (-6.5)
Jaguars (-11)
Ravens (-9)
Washington (-5.5)
Bills (+1.5)
Bengals (-12.5)
Colts (-1.5)
Browns (+9)

Tennessee Titans: 11-5 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 11-5)

Broncos (-3)
Jaguars (-7)
Vikings (-3)
WEEK 4 BYE
Bills (+3.5)
Texans (-3.5)
Steelers (-1)
Bengals (-6)
Bears (-6.5)
Colts (+1)
Ravens (+6)
Colts (+3)
Browns (-4)
Jaguars (-7.5)
Lions (-11)
Packers (+3)
Texans (-7.5)

Baltimore Ravens: 15-1 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 11-5)

Browns (-7.5)
Texans (-7.5)
Chiefs (-3.5)
Washington (-14.5)
Bengals (-12.5)
Eagles (-9.5)
WEEK 7 BYE
Steelers (-3.5)
Colts (-1.5)
Patriots (-6.5)
Titans (-6)
Steelers (+9)
Cowboys (-7.5)
Browns (-2.5)
Jaguars (-12.5)
Giants (-9.5)
Bengals (-12.5)

Cleveland Browns: 11-5 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 11-5)

Ravens (+7.5)
Bengals (-6)
Washington (-7.5)
Cowboys (+3.5)
Colts (-1)
Steelers (+3)
Bengals (-4.5)
Raiders (-2.5)
WEEK 9 BYE
Texans (-4.5)
Eagles (-2.5)
Jacksonville (-7.5)
Titans (+4)
Ravens (+2.5)
Giants (-5)
Jets (-6.5)
Steelers (-9)

Indianapolis Colts: 13-3 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 11-5)

Jaguars (-8)
Vikings (-3.5)
Jets (-11.5)
Bears (-3.5)
Browns (+1)
Bengals (-7.5)
WEEK 7 BYE
Lions (-2.5)
Ravens (+1.5)
Titans (-1)
Packers (-1.5)
Titans (-3)
Texans (-3.5)
Raiders (-3)
Texans (-7)
Steelers (+1.5)
Jaguars (-14)








Green Bay Packers: 13-3 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 13-3)

Vikings (+2.5)
Lions (-7)
Saints (+3)
Falcons (-5)
WEEK 5 BYE
Buccaneers (-1)
Texans (-2.5)
Vikings (-5.5)
49ers (-7.5)
Jaguars (-14)
Colts (+1.5)
Bears (-7.5)
Eagles (-8)
Lions (-7.5)
Panthers (-8.5)
Titans (-3)
Bears (-5.5)

New Orleans Saints: 14-2 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 12-4)

Buccaneers (-3.5)
Raiders (-4)
Packers (-3)
Lions (-3)
Chargers (-7)
WEEK 6 BYE
Panthers (-7)
Bears (-5.5)
Buccaneers (+4.5)
49ers (-9.5)
Falcons (-3.5)
Broncos (-17)
Falcons (-2.5)
Eagles (-7)
Chiefs (+3)
Vikings (-6.5)
Panthers (-6.5)

Seattle Seahawks: 15-1 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 12-4)

Falcons (-1)
Patriots (-4)
Cowboys (-4.5)
Dolphins (-4.5)
Vikings (-6.5)
WEEK 6 BYE
Cardinals (-3.5)
49ers (-2.5)
Bills (-3)
Rams (+2.5)
Cardinals (-3)
Eagles (-5.5)
Giants (-11)
Jets (-13.5)
Washington (-5.5)
Rams (-1)
49ers (-6)

Washington Football Team: 4-12 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 7-9)

Eagles (+5.5)
Cardinals (+7.5)
Browns (+7.5)
Ravens (+14.5)
Rams (+7)
Giants (+2.5)
Cowboys (+1)
WEEK 8 BYE
Giants (-3)
Lions (+3)
Bengals (-2)
Cowboys (+2.5)
Steelers (+5.5)
49ers (+3.5)
Seahawks (+5.5)
Panthers (-1)
Eagles (-1.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13-3 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 11-5)

Saints (+3.5)
Panthers (-7.5)
Broncos (-6)
Chargers (-7.5)
Bears (-3.5)
Packers (+1)
Raiders (-3.5)
Giants (-11.5)
Saints (-4.5)
Panthers (-5.5)
Rams (-4.5)
Chiefs (+3.5)
WEEK 13 BYE
Vikings (-6.5)
Falcons (-6)
Lions (-12)
Falcons (-6.5)

Los Angeles Rams: 11-5 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 10-6)

Cowboys (-1)
Eagles (+2)
Bills (+1)
Giants (-13.5)
Washington (-7)
49ers (-2.5)
Bears (-6.5)
Dolphins (-3)
WEEK 9 BYE
Seahawks (-2.5)
Buccaneers (+4.5)
49ers (-5)
Cardinals (-2.5)
Patriots (-5)
Jets (-17.5)
Seahawks (+1)
Cardinals (+3)

Chicago Bears: 3-13 According to Vegas Sportsbook (2020 Overall Record = 8-8)

Lions (+2.5)
Giants (-4.5)
Falcons (+3.5)
Colts (+3.5)
Buccaneers (+3.5)
Panthers (+1.5)
Rams (+6.5)
Saints (+5.5)
Titans (+6.5)
Vikings (+3.5)
WEEK 11 BYE
Packers (+7.5)
Lions (-3)
Texans (+1.5)
Vikings (+3)
Jaguars (-7.5)
Packers (+5.5)




It's not like these are Preseason Projections that were made in June, July, and August. These were actually the week-by-week projections throughout the course of this 2020 NFL Season. The Bears have clearly overachieved this year when you look at the numbers from that perspective.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

tl;dr

 

[Anytime23]

over-achieved to mediocrity?

Yay or something

 

[BearDownChicagoBears]

over-achieved to mediocrity?

Yay or something

They overachieved and I've supported it with numbers. If you cannot stand it then that's tough stuff. If you believe that the current talent on the Bears roster should equate to 11-5 or 10-6 then you are truly misguided. Nobody who knows anything about football would say that the Bears current talent is at that level. That's why USA Today projected the Bears to finish 3-13 back during the summer. That never once changed throughout the course of this season (even when they were 5-1).

 

[JesusHalasChrist]

Ok

 

[Anytime23]

They overachieved and I've supported it with numbers. If you cannot stand it then that's tough stuff. If you believe that the current talent on the Bears roster should equate to 11-5 or 10-6 then you are truly misguided. Nobody who knows anything about football would say that the Bears current talent is at that level. That's why USA Today projected the Bears to finish 3-13 back during the summer. That never once changed throughout the course of this season (even when they were 5-1).

csb

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

They’re a 6-10 to 7-9 team there Lester Holt. Not exactly breaking news here

 

[DammitFullerTurnUrHead!]

They overachieved and I've supported it with numbers. If you cannot stand it then that's tough stuff. If you believe that the current talent on the Bears roster should equate to 11-5 or 10-6 then you are truly misguided. Nobody who knows anything about football would say that the Bears current talent is at that level. That's why USA Today projected the Bears to finish 3-13 back during the summer. That never once changed throughout the course of this season (even when they were 5-1).

Well USA Today clearly doesn’t know anything about football if they predicted the bears to win 5 less games than they actually did.

most experts had this team at 8-8/7-9. I don’t think I’ve seen anyone on this forum or elsewhere claim that this should’ve been an 11 or 10 win team

 

[JesusHalasChrist]

This is the most effort I have ever seen put towards proving a completely uninteresting point.

 

[greg23]

This is the most effort I have ever seen put towards proving a completely uninteresting point.

Except thats not how it actually works to calculate it out that way.

You need to use the moneylines won/lost and figure it out from there.

Guarantee alot of those teams didn't really overachieve like you think

 

[sevvy]

I wish we were 3-13.