The Importance of Good 3-point Shooting

[Fred]

7 out of the Top 10 3-point shooting teams are in the playoffs. #2 Overall, Cleveland, will probably win it all.

4 out of the Bottom 10 teams made the playoffs. Only Dallas and Miami have a shot to get to the 2nd round.

Gordon shot 41% from the 3-point line this year (173-422), an incredible percentage when you consider he had no post threat. (Great shooters extend the defense, great post players force the defense to contract.) Gordon took 35% of the team's total 3-pointers.
The rest of the team shot 36.7% (320-871), and Salmons did a ton to lift this number up with his career high of 41+ this year.

My concern is that Salmons will return to his career numbers. In the 3 seasons prior to this one, he shot 29%, 35.7%, and 32.5% from the arc. This could spell disaster for the Gordon-less Bulls next year. With no one to extend the defense besides the inconsistent Hinrich, Rose will suffer. Deng needs to learn how to hit the 3, at a decent rate, with 100+ attempts.

TEAM HME OPP
1    Boston 0.397 0.349
2    Cleveland 0.393 0.333
3    San Antonio 0.386 0.379
4    Phoenix 0.383 0.383
5    Portland 0.383 0.374
6    Chicago 0.381 0.347
7    Orlando 0.381 0.342
8    Indiana 0.378 0.375
9    New Jersey 0.376 0.391
10    Houston 0.375 0.357
11    Golden State 0.373 0.38
12    Toronto 0.372 0.367
13    Denver 0.371 0.366
14    Sacramento 0.368 0.406
15    Atlanta 0.366 0.353
16    Charlotte 0.366 0.366
17    New Orleans 0.364 0.354
18    Milwaukee 0.363 0.378
19    L.A. Lakers 0.361 0.345
20    Memphis 0.36 0.355
21    New York 0.36 0.351
22    Miami 0.357 0.389
23    L.A. Clip 0.354 0.375
24    Minnesota 0.353 0.377
25    Dallas 0.35 0.375
26    Detroit 0.349 0.354
27    Utah 0.349 0.361
28    Oklahoma 0.346 0.364
29    Washington 0.33 0.387
30    Philadelphia 0.318 0.367

 

[dougthonus]

I think the correlation is the opposite of what you're saying for most of these teams.

They don't, as a rule, have great shooters that extend the defense as much as they have great players who can dominate at the rim and create lots of wide open looks.

 

[RC_Skinny22]

In the last game I asked myself why Rose as a guard doesn´t take wide open threes. Today I checked the stats. He hits only 22%. Isn´t this very to bad for a guard?

I know he should do what he does best and that is driving to the basket. But I think it would help him if he can shoot it well. The defense can´t leave him wide open and has to defend him closer. And with this it should be easier to drive to the basket.

You guys think so, too?

 

[dougthonus]

Shooting is something which tends to improve the longer you are in the NBA. Rose also does not have enough three point attempts to really consider his percentage indicative of anything either.

His FT% rose significantly from college as did his range and accuracy on the mid range shot which is closer to the college 3. I think you'll see Derrick Rose have a very solid jumper as he ages.

 

[Manic Devourer]

dougthonus wrote:

Shooting is something which tends to improve the longer you are in the NBA. Rose also does not have enough three point attempts to really consider his percentage indicative of anything either.

His FT% rose significantly from college as did his range and accuracy on the mid range shot which is closer to the college 3. I think you'll see Derrick Rose have a very solid jumper as he ages.

If he plans to extend his range to the 3 point mark, he'll need to change his shooting form. He may get away with it shooting mid-range jumpers, but he won't if he plans to throw up 3 point shots. It's way too flat, and the shooting from your ear is just not good shooting form.

He is still young enough, and still at a developing stage where he can still change his form, because right now it's ugly.

 

[RC_Skinny22]

Change his shot? Hehe maybe a floter (hope it is spelled correct) from the 3point range :laugh:

 

[Shakes]

Very few rookies are good three point shooters, so it's possible for Rose to become at least average. It's not a certainty either though, everyone thought Deng would eventually get a 3 point shot but it hasn't happened. I'd say by the end of year three we'll have a pretty good idea which path Rose is going to take.

John Salmons is an interesting case, with most players you'd automatically assume he'd fall back down to his career averages, but he seems to be a late bloomer all around, so it's not impossible he'll keep it up next year.

Ben Gordon is probably second to Steve Nash as the best 3 point shooter over the last 5 years, so obviously replacing him in that area isn't going to happen. Probably the worst thing you can do is try, and end up with someone who reproduces his volume without the efficiency.

 

[wjb1492]

Honestly, I don't know why I bother - especially since I agree with most of what you wrote. The Bulls will absolutely miss Ben's shooting if they aren't able to sign him, even if other guys on the team do shoot well. He's an incredibly talented offensive player. I hope he resigns, even though I refuse to consider it a death sentence if he doesn't - but the team will undoubtedly look very different if Ben is not with the Bulls next season.

But is it so hard to acknowledge that Kirk shot 40.8% from 3 this year, while shooting them at nearly the same per minute rate as Ben did? Instead, you lump him in with the rest of the team's shooting percentage, suggest that the team average is only as high as it is because of John's shooting, and then refer to Kirk as inconsistent - all implying that he did not shoot the 3 well this year.

You could have given him credit for this year and still pointed out he's shooting well above his career 3-point average if you felt the need to not be too complimentary.