The Importance of the NBA Center and how it relates to the Bulls

[Scoot26]

This came up in another thread about Melo dealing with Joakim Noah, so I thought I would compile this using stuff I wrote on my blog a few years ago.

Back in 2008, I did some research on what teams had when they won championships, and I found something that nearly every team had in common. Nearly all of them had an All-Star center. And in even more cases, they had a center that went on to go into the Hall-of-Fame.

And of course Bulls fans ignore all of this because of one man, Michael Jordan. Jordan won six NBA titles without an All-Star center, so most people think any team can win without the All-Star center.

Now, today the game is sort of changing and guys who normally would play center are being put at the PF position. Examples of such are Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol. So I myself still consider them centers and fit into this entire equation of my own findings.

So with my findings I found out that before Michael Jordan won an NBA title in 1991, only 2 NBA centers had won championships without that particular center being an All-Star that season. Arnie Risen in 1951 and Clifford Ray in 1975.

Arnie Risen however became an All-Star in 1953 and ended up in the Hall-of-Fame. Clifford Ray was a serviceable big man for the 1975 Warriors along with Rick Barry. The NBA was in a rather weak state in 1975 (competition from the ABA and the beginning of the cocaine era), so it’s not a big surprise the 48-34 Warriors won it all that season.

Now looking at it, there have been a total of 64 championship teams in NBA history. 55 championships teams have won championships while having All-Star centers (This includes Duncan and Gasol on that list).

And those 9 titles that haven’t included an All-Star center? Six of them are from Jordan’s teams (Cartwright and Longley with three each). The other three are Risen, Ray, and Kendrick Perkins.

So out of 64 teams, 5 starting centers have not been an All-Star and have won an NBA Championship. That puts a probability of winning an NBA Championship without an All-Star center at 7.8%.

And to use the Hall-of-Fame? 8 centers (I’m assuming Shaq and Duncan will be elected) have not been elected to the Hall-of-Fame and have won NBA Championships. That makes the probability of winning a title without a Hall-of-Fame center at 10.9%.

So to me if you have a good 7 footer (or very near 7 feet) you have a much better chance of winning than not having one. Of course there are exceptions that come along. Great player like Michael Jordan will do it, or as in the 2008 Boston Celtics, having an incredible trio and then supporting cast can guide your way there as well (Though Perkins himself is not a bad player, probably on par with a guy like Clifford Ray from the 70’s).

The other thing you have to consider with Jordan is that he never faced one All-Star center when the Bulls were in the NBA Finals. He faced Vlade Divac, Kevin Duckworth, Mark West, Ervin Johnson, and Greg Ostertag. Hardly an All-Star lineup of players.

I'm not saying Jordan wouldn't have won championships had he faced someone like Olajuwon in the Finals. Jordan beat Ewing plenty of times and beat Shaq in 1996 in the Eastern Conference Playoffs (Though Shaq beat him in 1995). The chance just never arrived for Jordan in the Finals.

Where does this leave the current Bulls at? Joakim Noah in my opinion was on a verge of an All-Star season last year if he had managed to stay healthy. That will be a question mark with him, but I think if he can put in a good year without suffering any major injury, he can become that All-Star, which puts us at this requirement. Noah does not have to be the best player on the team, but obviously one of the best to make the All-Star team. To me he is one of the most valuable players on the team. And I would pretty much not trade him for anyone at the moment except Dwight Howard (And we all know that's not happening).

If Noah can find his way onto the Eastern Conference Reserves this season, I think it would speak wonders and if the Bulls could ever get to the Finals and win…well my point would be proven.

 

[NealKleren]

I was reading that other thread and thought writing on their about what youre talking about,just not as detailed lol. I agree with everything about Noah being able to be an All Star. Like you said he doesnt have to be the best player on the team and shouldnt be on the trade block at all what so ever,even for Melo. If we got rid of him we would then have to start finding someone his age,height and skill level and the energy that Noah has and brings to the team,especially with the improvements he has made since playing Boston in the playoffs. Also side note I think Noah should have been an all star last year(and even though hes not on our team,I thought Andrew Bogut as well.)

 

[JCM]

good stuff scoot.

if Noah did indeed stay healthy last season and didn't have those injuries before all star break arrived he would of been a all star.

 

[Scoot26]

I was reading that other thread and thought writing on their about what youre talking about,just not as detailed lol. I agree with everything about Noah being able to be an All Star. Like you said he doesnt have to be the best player on the team and shouldnt be on the trade block at all what so ever,even for Melo. If we got rid of him we would then have to start finding someone his age,height and skill level and the energy that Noah has and brings to the team,especially with the improvements he has made since playing Boston in the playoffs. Also side note I think Noah should have been an all star last year(and even though hes not on our team,I thought Andrew Bogut as well.)

When I originally came up with this fact finding mission in 2008, I was saying the Bulls need to seek out one. Of course Noah was a rookie at the time and not a very good looking rookie. The following season when he came in completely out of shape, I wasnt ready to label him a bust yet, but was rather disappointed. Last season though, he came out full of energy and productive and now I believe Noah can be the guy we need. A center doesnt have to be an high offensive guy (Guys like Bill Laimbeer, Bill Russell, Ben Wallace we not offensive guys). As long as the team has a PF who can score, it usually compliments the defensive center.

You know..I always forget about Bogut. Probably because he has injury history as well. Bogut played 82 games his rookie year and player 78 in 07-08 and has had three injury ridden seasons in his 5 season career. Last year he went all the way until dislocated his elbow to end his season in late March. So he's another guy that probably could compete for an All-Star spot, but injuries will limit him. Andrew Bynum is another guy who could probably get their if he could stay healthy. And of course if Greg Oden could ever still healthy period, some say he could come on, but I feel injuries have done in Oden completely.

 

[Scoot26]

good stuff scoot.

if Noah did indeed stay healthy last season and didn't have those injuries before all star break arrived he would of been a all star.

Thanks!

And hopefully Noah can make that step this season.

 

[Crystallas]

I agree as well. In today's NBA there is a shortage of legit centers who can play at the NBA level. Even if Noah isn't all-star or 7' tall w/o shoes, he's still damn good, and extremely valuable to this team.

 

[NealKleren]

When I originally came up with this fact finding mission in 2008, I was saying the Bulls need to seek out one. Of course Noah was a rookie at the time and not a very good looking rookie. The following season when he came in completely out of shape, I wasnt ready to label him a bust yet, but was rather disappointed. Last season though, he came out full of energy and productive and now I believe Noah can be the guy we need. A center doesnt have to be an high offensive guy (Guys like Bill Laimbeer, Bill Russell, Ben Wallace we not offensive guys). As long as the team has a PF who can score, it usually compliments the defensive center.

You know..I always forget about Bogut. Probably because he has injury history as well. Bogut played 82 games his rookie year and player 78 in 07-08 and has had three injury ridden seasons in his 5 season career. Last year he went all the way until dislocated his elbow to end his season in late March. So he's another guy that probably could compete for an All-Star spot, but injuries will limit him. Andrew Bynum is another guy who could probably get their if he could stay healthy. And of course if Greg Oden could ever still healthy period, some say he could come on, but I feel injuries have done in Oden completely.

I agree. Bogut has had alot of injuries which have hurt his career. Also about Noah I was the same way,I didn't think much of him and didn't want to label him yet as well since it was his first year and then sophomore year wasnt looking the best either until the playoffs then last year he improved alot imo and has been playing good ever since the playoffs against Boston. Man if they ever came out with a dvd of that playoff series,even though we lost and it was only the first round,I would watch it over and over,such a memorable series and hopefully when we get to the NBA Finals,whenever we do,I want it to be like that,or even more memorable and close and exciting.

 

[Scoot26]

I agree as well. In today's NBA there is a shortage of legit centers who can play at the NBA level. Even if Noah isn't all-star or 7' tall w/o shoes, he's still damn good, and extremely valuable to this team.

At the moment we do have a shortage of centers.

Its basically Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol right now (I consider Gasol a center). Duncan is fading..We have question marks in Brook Lopez, Noah, Bynum, Kaman, and Bogut.

Its early in the decade. So there could be some guys that come in that we really dont know anything about yet. People say the dominant center is dying and people say the 2000's had a shortage of centers, but not really compared to any other era

Shaq, Duncan, Howard (Though not effective until about 2007), Ben Wallace, Yao Ming (Though always injured), Pau Gasol

It was the 1990s that really spoiled everyone. Olajuwon, Ewing, Shaq, DRob, Mourning Mutombo. The 1980's only had 4 good centers in Jabbar, Parish, Moses, and Laimbeer (And the first three were leagues ahead of Laimbeer).

 

[NealKleren]

Hey now dont forget Thabeet
Joking lol

 

[Scoot26]

I agree. Bogut has had alot of injuries which have hurt his career. Also about Noah I was the same way,I didn't think much of him and didn't want to label him yet as well since it was his first year and then sophomore year wasnt looking the best either until the playoffs then last year he improved alot imo and has been playing good ever since the playoffs against Boston. Man if they ever came out with a dvd of that playoff series,even though we lost and it was only the first round,I would watch it over and over,such a memorable series and hopefully when we get to the NBA Finals,whenever we do,I want it to be like that,or even more memorable and close and exciting.

I think if an NBA Finals involving the Bulls were close and exciting like that I would probably die of a heart attack. That first round series in 2009 nearly gave me a heart attack lol.

 

[houheffna]

I believe to a certain degree, college basketball has something to do with the big man shortage. Just not enough coaching staffs at that level are teaching young big men how to thrive on the NBA level. Is it their job? Maybe not, but if I had a 7 footer growing up in my house, I would want to know who is that guy that can help my son mature into an NBA player.

I watch to many games where the big men in college are for rebounding and intimidating guards that go to the basket. In the NBA it is about a lot more than that. And while there is a point guard factory it seems in Kentucky, there is no Georgetown anymore, grooming big men. It is going to be interesting to see the dynamics going forward.

With your argument, which is a pretty good one, and was THE prototype for championship teams until the 1990's. What about the Miami Heat? Dwight Howard is the best center in the game, and while he has a dominant presence defensively, Kareem, Moses or Hakeem he ain't.

 

[Crystallas]

Don't forget Mark Eaton in the 80s. He is very under appreciated, but he was a legit hard-nosed Center, just not a major offensive player. I think being in Utah, his stock dropped LOL, but a ton of teams would have loved him. Other than that, I agree with everything.

 

[NealKleren]

I think if an NBA Finals involving the Bulls were close and exciting like that I would probably die of a heart attack. That first round series in 2009 nearly gave me a heart attack lol.

LMAO I know what you mean

 

[JCM]

I think if an NBA Finals involving the Bulls were close and exciting like that I would probably die of a heart attack. That first round series in 2009 nearly gave me a heart attack lol.

ever since that 2009 series i been having anxiety disorders lol.

 

[methusala]

Back in 2008, I did some research on what teams had when they won championships, and I found something that nearly every team had in common. Nearly all of them had an All-Star center. And in even more cases, they had a center that went on to go into the Hall-of-Fame.

And of course Bulls fans ignore all of this because of one man, Michael Jordan. Jordan won six NBA titles without an All-Star center, so most people think any team can win without the All-Star center.

First paragraph was my entire thesis of Bosh/Boozer (and not trading Noah for anyone) being the most important thing for the Bulls this offseason.

Second paragraph was 90%+ of the rebuttals. Lol.

Size and depth wins championships. Jordan is an exception to the rule.

 

[dougthonus]

This is really an example of biased sampling of data. Basically every team except for Jordan's Bulls and the Detroit Pistons (really in all three title seasons) had dominant inside/outside combinations.

Look at the best player on title teams for the past 30 years:
(7) PG Magic(4), Billups(1), Isiah (2)
(9) SG Jordan (6), Wade (1), Kobe (2)
(4) SF Bird (3), Pierce (1)
(4) PF Duncan (4)
(6) C Shaq (3), Hakeem (2), Moses (1)

We can argue about Parker/Duncan and who was more important the last season, but I gave credit to Duncan. However, even so, you've got 10 total big men led titles with 4 players over 30 years accounting for those big men and 16 guard driven titles with six different players accounting for the guards. Given that Bird and Pierce were also perimeter driven players it makes more sense to put them in with the guards as well, and if you did so, it'd be 20 to 10.

Almost every title team in existence has a premier interior threat and an premier perimeter threat. How many teams won a title without a HOF caliber perimeter player?

Houston won one. Depending whether Parker / Billups get into the HOF, you can argue those guys as well, so you have a maximum of 6 champions without a HOF caliber perimeter player.

How many won without a HOF caliber interior player.
Bulls 3-6 (depending on whether Rodman gets in)
Pistons 0-3 (depending on Rodman/Rasheed/Big ben)
Lakers 0-2 (depending on Pau Gasol)

You have more players who've won by perimeter dominant players than interior dominant players. You have more players who've played the role as the dominant guy as a guard rather than as a big man. You have potentially more teams who've won without a dominant big man then have won without a dominant guard.

In conclusion, the best way to look at all this data is simply to say that you need elite players to win. It's best if those elite players play in different spots on the floor (one on the perimeter one on the interior).

However, I don't think that this case extends to Joakim Noah a whole lot. For one, he's no where near a HOF caliber big man, nor will he ever be a HOF caliber big man. Getting a guy like Carmelo Anthony who may be a HOF caliber wing player is far more likely to make us successful than having a non HOF caliber big man IMO, especially given that the Bulls do have an all-star caliber big man on the roster in terms of Boozer.

 

[Scoot26]

With your argument, which is a pretty good one, and was THE prototype for championship teams until the 1990's. What about the Miami Heat? Dwight Howard is the best center in the game, and while he has a dominant presence defensively, Kareem, Moses or Hakeem he ain't.

It still is the prototype today. If the Miami Heat do win a title, its basically the same as the 08 Celtics. They are an exception to the rule, though they do have a tall PF in Chris Bosh, but Bosh doesnt play his back to the basket much. After Jordan left the Spurs (DRob+Duncan), Lakers (Shaq), Pistons (Ben Wallace), Heat (Shaq), Celtics (Perkins), Lakers (Gasol) won titles. All but Perkins was an All-Star center, so to me it has still applied.

And yes, centers are weak right now. Dwight Howard doesnt match up to Kareem, Moses or Hakeem. Thats why a team like the Miami Heat have a better chance of winning a championship. Though to me, the Heat still need to get past the inside presence of the LA Lakers. And if the Magic get rid of Vince Carter, they can give the Heat alot of trouble too.

 

[Scoot26]

This is really an example of biased sampling of data. Basically every team except for Jordan's Bulls and the Detroit Pistons (really in all three title seasons) had dominant inside/outside combinations.

Look at the best player on title teams for the past 30 years:
(7) PG Magic(4), Billups(1), Isiah (2)
(9) SG Jordan (6), Wade (1), Kobe (2)
(4) SF Bird (3), Pierce (1)
(4) PF Duncan (4)
(6) C Shaq (3), Hakeem (2), Moses (1)

We can argue about Parker/Duncan and who was more important the last season, but I gave credit to Duncan. However, even so, you've got 10 total big men led titles with 4 players over 30 years accounting for those big men and 16 guard driven titles with six different players accounting for the guards. Given that Bird and Pierce were also perimeter driven players it makes more sense to put them in with the guards as well, and if you did so, it'd be 20 to 10.

Almost every title team in existence has a premier interior threat and an premier perimeter threat. How many teams won a title without a HOF caliber perimeter player?

Houston won one. Depending whether Parker / Billups get into the HOF, you can argue those guys as well, so you have a maximum of 6 champions without a HOF caliber perimeter player.

How many won without a HOF caliber interior player.
Bulls 3-6 (depending on whether Rodman gets in)
Pistons 0-3 (depending on Rodman/Rasheed/Big ben)
Lakers 0-2 (depending on Pau Gasol)

You have more players who've won by perimeter dominant players than interior dominant players. You have more players who've played the role as the dominant guy as a guard rather than as a big man. You have potentially more teams who've won without a dominant big man then have won without a dominant guard.

In conclusion, the best way to look at all this data is simply to say that you need elite players to win. It's best if those elite players play in different spots on the floor (one on the perimeter one on the interior).

However, I don't think that this case extends to Joakim Noah a whole lot. For one, he's no where near a HOF caliber big man, nor will he ever be a HOF caliber big man. Getting a guy like Carmelo Anthony who may be a HOF caliber wing player is far more likely to make us successful than having a non HOF caliber big man IMO, especially given that the Bulls do have an all-star caliber big man on the roster in terms of Boozer.

I did look at the other facts surrounding the issue. I didnt say the center is always the best player. As you said, hardly is the center the best player, especially lately. But a All-Star center paired with an All-Star perimeter player is what it takes to get the title. The Shaq-Wade, Duncan-Parker, Bird-Parish, Magic-Kareem, Kobe-Shaq combo's. An undersized PF does not work in this. And if you have crap at center (providing you dont have Jordan) you're not winning either. You can get there..plenty of teams have done that (Dallas, Cleveland, New Jersey, Knicks, Utah, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland are examples since 1990).

To me if we lost Noah for Carmelo, we are on par with ..the best example I can come up with is the 90's Sonics team. Detlef Schremphf is nowhere close to Carmelo, but Shawn Kemp was much better than Boozer is. Rose doesnt have the defensive capabilities of Gary Payton, but they're both All-Star PG's.

Boozer is undersized at PF and will be matched up against much bigger PF's in the playoffs that will dominate him if Boozer doesnt have help (Which happened in Utah). A player of Noah's capabilities takes pressure of Boozer on both ends of the court.

And obviously Noah will not likely make the Hall-of-Fame (Though if people are making a case for Rodman..one could be made for Noah if he managed to somehow become like Rodman [without Rodman's hothead]). But Noah being an All-Star or playing on an All-Star level to me increases our chances greatly.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

If Luc Longley was anything, he was more than 'crap at center'

 

[Scoot26]

If Luc Longley was anything, he was more than 'crap at center'

lol...Yeah Longley is the worst starting center to ever win a championship.