dreadpirateroberts
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By Adam Fromal
May 9, 2018
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-undervalued-nba-free-agent-at-every-position
LeBron James will inevitably serve as a primary free-agent target for a number of talent-hungry NBA teams in the summer of 2018. Plenty of franchises will be hoping for a shot at Kevin Durant or Chris Paul, though neither player is likely to leave his current situation. Clint Capela and DeMarcus Cousins are about to make a lot of money for their work at center.
But what if you're looking for bargains, scraping further down the free-agency barrel to unearth some overlooked gems?
To make an informed—albeit still subjective—decision at each of the five traditional positions, we're turning to the formula for Player Score used in previous articles.
For every player in the NBA who logged even a single minute during 2017-18, we pulled scores in four different overarching metrics: NBA Math's total points added (TPA), ESPN.com's real plus/minus wins (RPM Wins), player efficiency rating (PER) and win shares (WS). The first two look at volume/efficiency combinations, while the third focuses on per-possession effectiveness and favors offensive production. The fourth element rewards those whose individual merits lead to more victories. Volume and time on the court matter more than they might in other evaluations.
To standardize four numbers that operate on drastically different scales, we found the z-scores in each category and summed them to find a player's total score. The cumulative z-scores comprise Player Score, which you an see listed for each player and parenthetically included for the free agents ranked above and below.
These five contributors all boast positive marks, and they each rank more prominently than you might expect based on pure name recognition and reputation. If your team lands one of them (assuming the price tag doesn't rise astronomically), it likely found an offseason gem.
Point Guard: Fred VanVleet
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
Age: 24
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 8.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks
Player Score: 3.2
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: Chris Paul (10.32)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: David Stockton (0.92), Shabazz Napier (0.87), Yogi Ferrell (0.67), Rajon Rondo (0.34), Elfrid Payton (0.32)
Though Fred VanVleet struggled to get healthy and then couldn't find his shot during the Toronto Raptors' brief playoff run, don't let that dissuade you from viewing him as a top option at the point in this year's free-agent class. Once Chris Paul inevitably returns to the Houston Rockets, the crop dries up quickly.
Rajon Rondo, Elfrid Payton and Shabazz Napier are intriguing options at various stages of their careers. Isaiah Thomas could bounce back from a miserable season. David Stockton probably won't get much love, as his stock and score are boosted by success in a remarkably small sample. But VanVleet could be the savior of this class.
The 24-year-old has come a long way since leaving Wichita State and going undrafted. He's emerging from a breakout season in which he proved himself as a distinct two-way threat. Not only can he hold his own defensively with grit, determination and the lateral quickness necessary to overcome the limitations of his 6'0" frame, but he has also developed into an offensive threat who rarely makes mistakes.
Toronto head coach Dwane Casey frequently relied upon VanVleet in crunch-time scenarios, pairing him with the All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and trusting him to make the right decisions. The backup floor general understood how to free himself on the perimeter in off-ball situations, rarely gambled with minuscule passing lanes and served as a steady presence who prevented the Raptors from devolving back into their isolation-heavy ways of the past (until the playoffs, that is).
VanVleet's net rating in clutch situations—which NBA.com defines as the last five minutes of games separated by no more than five points—throughout the regular season stood at 4.2, which lagged behind only the marks of OG Anunoby (19.7) and Lorenzo Brown (166.7) among all Raptors. But when you factor in playing time—Brown (one minute) and Anunoby (31 minutes) lagged well behind VanVleet (97 minutes)—the young 1-guard may well have been the Raptors' premier crunch-time contributor.
Shooting Guard: Joe Harris
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
Age: 26
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks
Player Score: 1.05
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: Tyreke Evans (4.34), Will Barton (3.77), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2.93), JJ Redick (2.78), Wayne Ellington (1.18)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: Danny Green (0.92), Marcus Smart (minus-0.04), Marco Belinelli (minus-0.1), Austin Rivers (minus-0.27), Devin Harris (minus-0.32)
The futility of the lowly Brooklyn Nets prevented Joe Harris from getting much love throughout the 2017-18 campaign, but the 26-year-old quietly emerged as one of the league's most dangerous shooters. And that's true whether you look at the totality of his percentages or isolate his work from beyond the arc.
Let's begin by diving into the former.
Knocking down 49.1 percent of his field-goal attempts, 41.9 percent of his triples and 82.7 percent of his free-throw attempts, Harris finished 2017-18 with a lofty 63.4 true shooting percentage. Only a dozen players who qualified for the scoring crown wound up posting a higher mark, and Kyle Korver and Kevin Durant were the only two to do so while spending the majority of their minutes at a position other than power forward or center.
Looking at this another way, Harris joined Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Montrezl Harrell, DeAndre Jordan and Clint Capela as one of only six qualified players to average 10 or more points with a true shooting percentage north of 63. Last year, Korver, Capela, Durant, Jordan, Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic were the lone members of that same club.
Harris' three-point shooting might be even more impressive, since his 41.9 percent conversion rate came while he took 4.6 attempts per game and created 5.3 percent of his makes off the bounce. Only Stephen Curry, Durant, Buddy Hield, Joe Ingles and JJ Redick could match or exceed each of those three figures in 2017-18.
Oh, and this is all stemming from the season-long tallies. After the All-Star break, Harris slashed a mind-numbing 54.3/47.8/88.2.
Teams could covet Harris' under-control drives to the hoop. They could want him to continue playing improved defense. But in reality, they'll primarily seek out his under-the-radar ability to serve as one of the Association's most accurate marksmen.
May 9, 2018
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-undervalued-nba-free-agent-at-every-position
LeBron James will inevitably serve as a primary free-agent target for a number of talent-hungry NBA teams in the summer of 2018. Plenty of franchises will be hoping for a shot at Kevin Durant or Chris Paul, though neither player is likely to leave his current situation. Clint Capela and DeMarcus Cousins are about to make a lot of money for their work at center.
But what if you're looking for bargains, scraping further down the free-agency barrel to unearth some overlooked gems?
To make an informed—albeit still subjective—decision at each of the five traditional positions, we're turning to the formula for Player Score used in previous articles.
For every player in the NBA who logged even a single minute during 2017-18, we pulled scores in four different overarching metrics: NBA Math's total points added (TPA), ESPN.com's real plus/minus wins (RPM Wins), player efficiency rating (PER) and win shares (WS). The first two look at volume/efficiency combinations, while the third focuses on per-possession effectiveness and favors offensive production. The fourth element rewards those whose individual merits lead to more victories. Volume and time on the court matter more than they might in other evaluations.
To standardize four numbers that operate on drastically different scales, we found the z-scores in each category and summed them to find a player's total score. The cumulative z-scores comprise Player Score, which you an see listed for each player and parenthetically included for the free agents ranked above and below.
These five contributors all boast positive marks, and they each rank more prominently than you might expect based on pure name recognition and reputation. If your team lands one of them (assuming the price tag doesn't rise astronomically), it likely found an offseason gem.
Point Guard: Fred VanVleet
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
Age: 24
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 8.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks
Player Score: 3.2
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: Chris Paul (10.32)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: David Stockton (0.92), Shabazz Napier (0.87), Yogi Ferrell (0.67), Rajon Rondo (0.34), Elfrid Payton (0.32)
Though Fred VanVleet struggled to get healthy and then couldn't find his shot during the Toronto Raptors' brief playoff run, don't let that dissuade you from viewing him as a top option at the point in this year's free-agent class. Once Chris Paul inevitably returns to the Houston Rockets, the crop dries up quickly.
Rajon Rondo, Elfrid Payton and Shabazz Napier are intriguing options at various stages of their careers. Isaiah Thomas could bounce back from a miserable season. David Stockton probably won't get much love, as his stock and score are boosted by success in a remarkably small sample. But VanVleet could be the savior of this class.
The 24-year-old has come a long way since leaving Wichita State and going undrafted. He's emerging from a breakout season in which he proved himself as a distinct two-way threat. Not only can he hold his own defensively with grit, determination and the lateral quickness necessary to overcome the limitations of his 6'0" frame, but he has also developed into an offensive threat who rarely makes mistakes.
Toronto head coach Dwane Casey frequently relied upon VanVleet in crunch-time scenarios, pairing him with the All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and trusting him to make the right decisions. The backup floor general understood how to free himself on the perimeter in off-ball situations, rarely gambled with minuscule passing lanes and served as a steady presence who prevented the Raptors from devolving back into their isolation-heavy ways of the past (until the playoffs, that is).
VanVleet's net rating in clutch situations—which NBA.com defines as the last five minutes of games separated by no more than five points—throughout the regular season stood at 4.2, which lagged behind only the marks of OG Anunoby (19.7) and Lorenzo Brown (166.7) among all Raptors. But when you factor in playing time—Brown (one minute) and Anunoby (31 minutes) lagged well behind VanVleet (97 minutes)—the young 1-guard may well have been the Raptors' premier crunch-time contributor.
Shooting Guard: Joe Harris
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
Age: 26
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks
Player Score: 1.05
Trailing These Free Agents at His Position: Tyreke Evans (4.34), Will Barton (3.77), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2.93), JJ Redick (2.78), Wayne Ellington (1.18)
Next 5 Free Agents at His Position: Danny Green (0.92), Marcus Smart (minus-0.04), Marco Belinelli (minus-0.1), Austin Rivers (minus-0.27), Devin Harris (minus-0.32)
The futility of the lowly Brooklyn Nets prevented Joe Harris from getting much love throughout the 2017-18 campaign, but the 26-year-old quietly emerged as one of the league's most dangerous shooters. And that's true whether you look at the totality of his percentages or isolate his work from beyond the arc.
Let's begin by diving into the former.
Knocking down 49.1 percent of his field-goal attempts, 41.9 percent of his triples and 82.7 percent of his free-throw attempts, Harris finished 2017-18 with a lofty 63.4 true shooting percentage. Only a dozen players who qualified for the scoring crown wound up posting a higher mark, and Kyle Korver and Kevin Durant were the only two to do so while spending the majority of their minutes at a position other than power forward or center.
Looking at this another way, Harris joined Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Montrezl Harrell, DeAndre Jordan and Clint Capela as one of only six qualified players to average 10 or more points with a true shooting percentage north of 63. Last year, Korver, Capela, Durant, Jordan, Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic were the lone members of that same club.
Harris' three-point shooting might be even more impressive, since his 41.9 percent conversion rate came while he took 4.6 attempts per game and created 5.3 percent of his makes off the bounce. Only Stephen Curry, Durant, Buddy Hield, Joe Ingles and JJ Redick could match or exceed each of those three figures in 2017-18.
Oh, and this is all stemming from the season-long tallies. After the All-Star break, Harris slashed a mind-numbing 54.3/47.8/88.2.
Teams could covet Harris' under-control drives to the hoop. They could want him to continue playing improved defense. But in reality, they'll primarily seek out his under-the-radar ability to serve as one of the Association's most accurate marksmen.
