beckdawg
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I was illustrating a point in the IST when I noticed something sorta interesting. The 2018 cards played 94 games in the first half. The 2017 cubs played 88 in the first half. I mean I realized they were starting the season earlier and all but I guess I hadn't quite put 2 and 2 together that it would also mean you play more games before the all-star break.
There are several reasons this is interesting. First, the trade deadline didn't change. I'd have to look to give you an exact number but chances are it's a similar ~6 games more this year. That effectively means that if teams wait to a traditional date to trade players then you get less impact out of them because you've already played more games by the all-star break. Obviously that means making up ground in the 2nd half is a lot harder. The season was always slightly lopsided in the first half. Typically in the past that was like +8-10 games in the first half depending on how the schedule worked out. Now it's more like 14-16.
Additionally, the all-star break typically has been kind of a reset point for teams. You look at the 2016 and 2017 cubs and can kinda see that. 2016 cubs were great up until the 20 or so games prior to the all-star break, reset then dominated the 2nd half. The 2017 cubs were floundering prior to the all-star break. However, given the new schedule structure, teams really don't have that luxury anymore. The cards this year are sort of a good example of this because by the time the all-star break hit they'd already logged 58% of their games and only had 68 left.
This gave me 2 thoughts. 1 is I'm wondering if we don't see them move the all-star game to roughly the july 4th holiday weekend. It would sort of make sense both from a logistical stand point as an attraction and from a stand point game wise when historically the all star game was held. Looking back at the dates the game is usually held in the 10th-16th period. Only 10 times since 1963 when the league expanded has the game been held prior to the 10th with the earliest being the 6th in 1983.
The second thought I had was by starting the season earlier and potentially moving up the all-star break you've sorta extended the trade deadline in a round about manner. As an example, this year the deadline was more akin to like mid August because you would have played more games. That's kinda cool because it always sucked that you could potentially just lose a guy right after the deadline and tank your chances. By giving an additional week or two by starting the season earlier you lessen that risk. The down side is that as mentioned mid-season trades are less impactful if teams don't make them earlier. As such i think we're going to start to see a lot more late june/early july trades.
There are several reasons this is interesting. First, the trade deadline didn't change. I'd have to look to give you an exact number but chances are it's a similar ~6 games more this year. That effectively means that if teams wait to a traditional date to trade players then you get less impact out of them because you've already played more games by the all-star break. Obviously that means making up ground in the 2nd half is a lot harder. The season was always slightly lopsided in the first half. Typically in the past that was like +8-10 games in the first half depending on how the schedule worked out. Now it's more like 14-16.
Additionally, the all-star break typically has been kind of a reset point for teams. You look at the 2016 and 2017 cubs and can kinda see that. 2016 cubs were great up until the 20 or so games prior to the all-star break, reset then dominated the 2nd half. The 2017 cubs were floundering prior to the all-star break. However, given the new schedule structure, teams really don't have that luxury anymore. The cards this year are sort of a good example of this because by the time the all-star break hit they'd already logged 58% of their games and only had 68 left.
This gave me 2 thoughts. 1 is I'm wondering if we don't see them move the all-star game to roughly the july 4th holiday weekend. It would sort of make sense both from a logistical stand point as an attraction and from a stand point game wise when historically the all star game was held. Looking back at the dates the game is usually held in the 10th-16th period. Only 10 times since 1963 when the league expanded has the game been held prior to the 10th with the earliest being the 6th in 1983.
The second thought I had was by starting the season earlier and potentially moving up the all-star break you've sorta extended the trade deadline in a round about manner. As an example, this year the deadline was more akin to like mid August because you would have played more games. That's kinda cool because it always sucked that you could potentially just lose a guy right after the deadline and tank your chances. By giving an additional week or two by starting the season earlier you lessen that risk. The down side is that as mentioned mid-season trades are less impactful if teams don't make them earlier. As such i think we're going to start to see a lot more late june/early july trades.
