Top 100 prospects

[Omeletpants]

Cubs don't have a single player


http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/01/28/shohei-ohtani-is-still-the-best-prospect-in-baseball/

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs don't have a single player


http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/01/28/shohei-ohtani-is-still-the-best-prospect-in-baseball/

It's not as big of deal as people make it out to be. The talent presently in their system isn't comparable to say 2012. The thing about top 100 lists is they are purely about upside. They don't really measure depth. For example, Kyle Hendricks never even came close to top 100. If it went to top 200 he might not have made it. Contreras hit .242/.320/.359 in 2014 was rule 5 eligible and anyone could have had him, then went out and hit .333/.413/.478 in AA in 2015 and suddenly was a top 50ish player. That's the other thing with these lists. It really only measures 2 groups of players. Either A) really high draft picks(Royce Lewis is #20 and MacKenzie Gore is #19) or it measures guys at AA/AAA. There's occasionally some exceptions to that such as super high profile IFA's like Vladdy Jr and Eloy/Torres were but by in large players don't really get noticed until A+ and unless they are nuts there don't get ranked until AA.

If you look at the top prospects the cubs have right now they are in some order, Oscar De La Cruz(might be AA but he's been hurt so it's difficult to put faith in ranking him), Jose Albertos(probably starts next year in A), Adbert Alzolay(kind of a one year wonder but he'll be top 100 if he proves it through midseason next year), Alex Lange/Brendon Little(both probably at A and not high enough picks to get ranked right away), Aramis Ademan(likely goes to A+ and he's only 19), Nelson Velazquez(maybe A ball if he's lucky but probably ex st/a-), Victory Caratini(top 10 catcher but not enough upside for the top 100), Thomas Hatch(likely just going to AA), and Jen-Ho Tseng(likely AAA).

So of the top 10 guys the cubs have you have Alzolay, Tseng and Caratini who've played enough to warrant consideration but Tseng and Caratini while good prospects don't have huge upsides and Alzolay doesn't have a proven track record. The majority of the talent left in the system is just at too low a level to warrant consideration right now but it's not like it doesn't exist.

Also for what it's worth there's a bunch of really intriguing guys the cubs have between DSL, rookie league, A- and A ball that people don't really know about yet. For example has anyone besides me ever heard of Fernando Kelli? He's a 19 year old CF the cubs have in DSL who hit .320/.437/.443 with 11.9%/17.1% bb/k rates and stole 58 bases. He's maybe a year behind super elite IFA signings as they generally get to mesa by 18 but given how well he hit last year he might be able to get to A- this coming year which would make up about half a year and he'd more or less be on par with all but the most advanced IFA's in his age range.

There's more guys like that but a lot of it is just people putting together the collection of tools they have. If they do they become a good prospect such as Alzolay did last year. I have more faith in the cubs scouting/development of hitters so with a guy like Kelli if they like him I have a pretty good assumption that the guys going to hit. Pitching thus far has been spotty with them though they have drafted more low upside college arms so that's not entirely surprising. And another thing to remember is they get back into the IFA game this july. I'd expect to see them land some big names because near as I know they didn't even remotely sniff any of the Braves IFA's who got released by MLB as punishment. In theory the cubs could have used money from next IFA period to sign them but they didn't which tells me they likely have some big guys already agreed to.

 

[Omeletpants]

Just posting a fact, not editorializing

 

[beckdawg]

Just posting a fact, not editorializing

It's cool I'm just saying. Prospects are sorta my think. I just get riled up when I hear people talking about the cubs being a bottom 5 system because I'm not sure I agree. On top end talent near the majors sure you can argue that but I think they have more depth than most teams. My belief is I'd always rather have great depth than higher top end. The dream is obviously both but that's hard to do.

 

[anotheridiot]

well, we had the #4 prospect and considering Quintana was not the missing piece last year and wont be the ace unless its by default, gotta think it was too much to give up, well, let alone the other 3 guys.

 

[CSF77]

well, we had the #4 prospect and considering Quintana was not the missing piece last year and wont be the ace unless its by default, gotta think it was too much to give up, well, let alone the other 3 guys.

Q is a top 20 SP. that is worth 2 gambles

 

[CSF77]

Q is a top 20 SP. that is worth 2 gambles

The NYY trade was not worth it in general. It was a complete over pay. Except for the fact it ended up playing into a historical moment. That is what made it acceptable.

But trading 2 top prospects for 3-4 months of a closer is idiotic in general and would be dumb to do normally.

 

[beckdawg]

well, we had the #4 prospect and considering Quintana was not the missing piece last year and wont be the ace unless its by default, gotta think it was too much to give up, well, let alone the other 3 guys.

I don't really agree with this. First off, you get Q for 3.5 years. In his career he's been worth 23.5 fWAR over 183 starts. If you say a full season is 32 starts(usually is) that's 5.71 years or roughly 4.1 fWAR per year. So effectively you're talking about roughly 14.38 win over that time. To be worth that Eloy would essentially have to be an all-star player for all 7 years of his rookie deal. And I think you could argue that given the cubs current window that those 14 or so wins from Q at the price they are costing are worth even more. For example, if they were paying him $20 mil a year for that sorta 4 win yearly production instead of $8-11.5 they would have 0 chance of affording Darvish now.

As for the other 3 players in the deal, it's more like 1. Cease was the only other guy likely to make the majors. The other 2 were more org depth guys. And Cease may end up a reliever which if he does he'll likely be a good one but would significantly limit his value.

Fangraphs actually had a link on surplus value for prospects last year. The short version was that the expectation for a 65 grade hitter was like $70M and a 55 grade pitcher was $22M. I'm not sure the other two prospects would even be 45 grade but for the sake of argument let's just say the total package was worth $100M in surplus value. The next 3 years alone Quintana is likely worth $79.1 in surplus value and he was worth roughly $15.5 mil in surplus value for the cubs last year.

 

[beckdawg]

Jake: I know the Top 100 is arbitrary and it doesn’t really mean a whole lot, but it seems that the Cubs have a lot of players in the 101-200 range, who with a big year (or a healthy year) could really make the jump. Yes/no?

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, so we have two 50s in that system (Ademan and Alzolay) so you can call them top 100 if you want because you can kind of shift all the 50s around based on your team’s needs/tastes/philosophy. After that, a healthy Lange, de la Cruz, Little or Estrada season could move those guys up, I love Miguel Amaya…they have depth, that system isn’t lifeless

From fangraphs chat.

 

[CSF77]

Ademan age is giving him his love. When he grows into his body like Almora Jr did we will get a better vibe. I see them both being very close comps honestly. Almora got much love due to his draft selection. But by the numbers they are pretty close.

Alzolay broke out last year and I believe he is lacking a major league quality change up right now. That will make him a starter or another BP arm. He gains that pitch in Tenn he should shoot up.

DeLa Cruz has a injury track record. I really don’t see him busting the top 100 at the mid term. A solid season injury free and he may crack it. Honestly I think of E-Jax when I think of him. Same build and E-Jax really never put it together constantly. He would have some dominant stretches but never to a point that would justify the deal he got from Theo.

So looking at the system in general:

Pitchers that have the best chance of being starters: Hatch, Lange and Albertos

Major league BP: Little and Alzolay

Busts: Underwood and De La Cruz

Starting 8: Ademan would but not on this team right now. But age is in his favor and could open up a trade opertunity for Russell when his price jumps.

No one else really is starting 8.

Bench: Cartiani and Zag are the guys that are the obvious ones. Future guys are honestly too raw right now.

So over view: plenty of reserve types. Hatch and Lange look like they can become MOR with their arsonel and college history. Only potential TOR is Albertos due to his change up being his best offering countering a mid 90’s fastball. Imo if he had a 60 ranked slider or curve he would be top 100 right now.

That is my feel honestly. I expect Lange pushing Tenn by mid and Hatch pushing Iowa. Alzolay should start at Tenn and if they do sign Darvish or Cobb then they convert him to relief this year to use later year. If they go with Montgomery then he stays in the rotation and is pushed to Iowa mid season. He may see a Sep call up either way but in the same BP role. But 2019’s projection would be affected as a starter vs a relief option.

They lack impact players ATM but they have impact on the 25 so I really don’t mind. They are not in a rebuild and the have the luxury of time to improve the system.