What I think is the ideal trade scenario as of now.

[JP Hochbaum]

Getting the first pick in the draft depends on Indy vs Houston in week 18. Indy is just a shit show and they’d be smart to start Ehlinger to get him some experience. So I think we have a very good chance at pick number 1.

Outside of the Cardinals, the top 6 teams will be looking for a QB. The Falcons may be wise to not draft one yet since they have Ridder, so at worst the top 5 teams.

2. Houston: definitely needs one.
3. Seattle: although Geno Smith has played at an MVP level, it’s obvious that they could draft a guy and not need to start one. But I’d see them in the market for DT or DE.
4. Arizona: doesn’t need QB
5. Colts: yes needs a qb, and also has a crazy owner.
6. Falcons: May decide to get a QB

So here’s what i hope shakes out. That the Irsay led Colts realize Andrew Luck isn’t coming back and they do a complete sell out for the first pick.

With 2 teams in front of us not really desperate enough for a QB, we could lose out on Carter and Anderson, if we trade back to 5, possibly 4 depending on how season shakes out. Then we just lose out on one, if the Colts have the 4th pick. I'd see Seattle trading back in this case for a team trading up for QB3. Yeah that craziness could happen.

This is where Irsays desperation comes in. The Colts have two things the Bears need, and the Colts could shed lots of cap space to rebuild around a new QB.

Colts send to Bears:
2023 1.5 or 1.4 (results pending)
Deforest Buckner - 2 years left on deal
Michael Pittman - 1 year left of control

Because one player is a massive cap hit and the other only has one year of control, they have much less trade value.

So we can get more….
According to previous draft value charts on points gained for trading back, we can still get Indy’s 2023 2nd 37th overall, 2023 3rd 84 overall and 2024 3rd.

The trade value I used is based on the Fitzgerald Spielberger chart that measures past values lost by trading up and matches value lost from past trade ups to #1 overall. And considering Indy may be desperate, what is listed above can be seen as a worst case scenario for a Bears-Colts trade.

 

[baselman1974]

The Bears might get more if there is a bidding war, which most likely happen if Bears get to #1. A 2024 1st is likely.

I don’t think the colts would trade Pittman. He is a good WR and will help a young QB. Also on rookie deal. Buckner is a possibility though since he most likely be a cap casualty with 40 million left in books.

 

[Aesopian]

DeForrest Buckner will be 29 years old next season, it makes no sense to target him. This team won't be competitive for a few years and by then Buckner will be out of his prime and overpaid.

We might as well kept Mack & Quinn if they were going to target an old vet.

 

[number51]

I knew the season was over for the Bears, but this thread seals the deal.

You know your team sucks when the fans are talking about draft fantasies in December.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

So the bears just get their hands on an all-pro DT (which Indy can afford comfortably) and a star 25-year-old about-to-be back-to-back 1000-yard receiving campaigns while sliding 2-3 spots down in the draft? To help Indy shed cap space when they walk into the offseason with 33 and change mil in cap space per OTC (top 1/3 most cap space this offseason and can make several moves to free up more should they so choose)? And to give up a star 25-year-old WR to "build around a QB?"

I don't know what possesses Indy to make that deal, but the ideal scenario is OP puts the crackpipe down.

 

[mecha]

I knew the season was over for the Bears, but this thread seals the deal.

You know your team sucks when the fans are talking about draft fantasies in December.

worthless mocks started a month ago.

 

[legendxofxlink]

DeForrest Buckner will be 29 years old next season, it makes no sense to target him. This team won't be competitive for a few years and by then Buckner will be out of his prime and overpaid.

We might as well kept Mack & Quinn if they were going to target an old vet.

If they’re not competitive next year, Poles fucked up.

 

[Aesopian]

If they’re not competitive next year, Poles fucked up.

They should aim for six wins next season, Poles has brought in some good players Brisker, Gordon, Claypool but this team is still seriously devoid of talent. I'm not defending Poles but that would require extreme luck to be a real completive team next season.

 

[legendxofxlink]

They should aim for six wins next season, Poles has brought in some good players Brisker, Gordon, Claypool but this team is still seriously devoid of talent. I'm not defending Poles but that would require extreme luck to be a real completive team next season.

Giants and redskins have over 6 wins in a much tougher division. Raiders/Panthers are horrible teams and they have 6 wins. I don’t expect a SB appearance, but I do expect them to contend for division title. If not, Poles failed or Fields got hurt.

 

[Aesopian]

Giants and redskins have over 6 wins in a much tougher division. Raiders/Panthers are horrible teams and they have 6 wins. I don’t expect a SB appearance, but I do expect them to contend for division title. If not, Poles failed or Fields got hurt.

One year after placing last or second last in the entire NFL? That's a little far fetched.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

The Bears might get more if there is a bidding war, which most likely happen if Bears get to #1. A 2024 1st is likely.

I don’t think the colts would trade Pittman. He is a good WR and will help a young QB. Also on rookie deal. Buckner is a possibility though since he most likely be a cap casualty with 40 million left in books.

Imagine trading back to Houston's 2, getting. haul, then trading back to 3 or 4 to get another haul....

 

[JP Hochbaum]

DeForrest Buckner will be 29 years old next season, it makes no sense to target him. This team won't be competitive for a few years and by then Buckner will be out of his prime and overpaid.

We might as well kept Mack & Quinn if they were going to target an old vet.

The Bears have two things that could almost reverse their record next season, an elite QB with more experience, and a team that lost a lot of games late by one possession. Look at Minny this year, one of the luckiest teams that could be well below .500. And right now the Colts would have a new window with a rookie QB hypothetically, where it may be worth it for them to get younger.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

So the bears just get their hands on an all-pro DT (which Indy can afford comfortably) and a star 25-year-old about-to-be back-to-back 1000-yard receiving campaigns while sliding 2-3 spots down in the draft? To help Indy shed cap space when they walk into the offseason with 33 and change mil in cap space per OTC (top 1/3 most cap space this offseason and can make several moves to free up more should they so choose)? And to give up a star 25-year-old WR to "build around a QB?"

I don't know what possesses Indy to make that deal, but the ideal scenario is OP puts the crackpipe down.

If you don't have a QB you don't have a team that can win a super bowl in this era. It is pointless to have a stud WR without that QB.
If we were the COlts and Fields was available at 1 or 2, we would make this trade in a heartbeat.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

One year after placing last or second last in the entire NFL? That's a little far fetched.

Do you watch the nfl? It's literally happening this year with Jacksonville

 

[TL1961]

Getting the first pick in the draft depends on Indy vs Houston in week 18. Indy is just a shit show and they’d be smart to start Ehlinger to get him some experience. So I think we have a very good chance at pick number 1.

Outside of the Cardinals, the top 6 teams will be looking for a QB. The Falcons may be wise to not draft one yet since they have Ridder, so at worst the top 5 teams.

2. Houston: definitely needs one.
3. Seattle: although Geno Smith has played at an MVP level, it’s obvious that they could draft a guy and not need to start one. But I’d see them in the market for DT or DE.
4. Arizona: doesn’t need QB
5. Colts: yes needs a qb, and also has a crazy owner.
6. Falcons: May decide to get a QB

So here’s what i hope shakes out. That the Irsay led Colts realize Andrew Luck isn’t coming back and they do a complete sell out for the first pick.

With 2 teams in front of us not really desperate enough for a QB, we could lose out on Carter and Anderson, if we trade back to 5, possibly 4 depending on how season shakes out. Then we just lose out on one, if the Colts have the 4th pick. I'd see Seattle trading back in this case for a team trading up for QB3. Yeah that craziness could happen.

This is where Irsays desperation comes in. The Colts have two things the Bears need, and the Colts could shed lots of cap space to rebuild around a new QB.

Colts send to Bears:
2023 1.5 or 1.4 (results pending)
Deforest Buckner - 2 years left on deal
Michael Pittman - 1 year left of control

Because one player is a massive cap hit and the other only has one year of control, they have much less trade value.

So we can get more….
According to previous draft value charts on points gained for trading back, we can still get Indy’s 2023 2nd 37th overall, 2023 3rd 84 overall and 2024 3rd.

The trade value I used is based on the Fitzgerald Spielberger chart that measures past values lost by trading up and matches value lost from past trade ups to #1 overall. And considering Indy may be desperate, what is listed above can be seen as a worst case scenario for a Bears-Colts trade.

Geno Smith has played better than expected, and at times this year has played very well. Well enough that he will get paid somewhere. But he is nowhere bear "MVP level", and that team won't make the postseason. It was a great story early on, but it came back to earth a bit.

I agree that it is unlikely that AZ is looking for a QB, but I would be if I were them.

If Atlanta isn't looking for a QB, they should be looking for new management. They're 5 or 6 win team with nothing under center. If not now, when? If they once again don't get a young QB, they'll be forced to change their name to the Colts.

 

[TL1961]

Giants and redskins have over 6 wins in a much tougher division. Raiders/Panthers are horrible teams and they have 6 wins. I don’t expect a SB appearance, but I do expect them to contend for division title. If not, Poles failed or Fields got hurt.

It's not out of the question that the Bears could compete for a title in this bad division, but it's crazy to say Poles failed if they don't. Way too early for that.

 

[dennehy]

DeForrest Buckner will be 29 years old next season, it makes no sense to target him. This team won't be competitive for a few years and by then Buckner will be out of his prime and overpaid.

We might as well kept Mack & Quinn if they were going to target an old vet.

I agree, when you have a QB on a rookie deal it's always smart to wait until the rookie deal is over to try to be good. That goes double when he's a QB that runs a lot.

There's no reason to think Buckner won't play at a high level for the next four years. He's not an EDGE player, and he wins with his unique combo of leverage, length, and power. And he will be younger than Quinn was he registered his 18th sack when the Fields' ends his 6th year.

That said, IND would have to really value a QB to give him up in a deal.

 

[Chicago Staleys]

The Bears need Stroud to finish strong in the Bowl Series and both QBs, Stroud & Levis, to have an excellent combine.

Then have a team behind them that’s QB thirsty to force another team to jump into the Bears spot.

Bears luck is none of this happens and they have to stay with 1 pick in the top 50.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Geno Smith has played better than expected, and at times this year has played very well. Well enough that he will get paid somewhere. But he is nowhere bear "MVP level", and that team won't make the postseason. It was a great story early on, but it came back to earth a bit.

I agree that it is unlikely that AZ is looking for a QB, but I would be if I were them.

If Atlanta isn't looking for a QB, they should be looking for new management. They're 5 or 6 win team with nothing under center. If not now, when? If they once again don't get a young QB, they'll be forced to change their name to the Colts.

I agree Atlanta needs one. But at their position I am not sure they trade up to get one. I don't see them getting Stroud or Young, and if they draft LEvis with their pick that will be a massive reach. They would be wise to trade down like the Bears and take advantage of more QB needy teams. I don't think Ridder is their answer by any means but it would be better for them to get one in 2024 when the QB class will be better.

 

[dennehy]

I'm not a huge fan of any of these QBs, Young imo being easily the best. But there are several scouts who think Levis will go pretty high.