White Sox Just Unlucky?

[whitesoxman77]

2012 Chicago White Sox Batting, Pitching, & Fielding Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

According to baseball reference, the White Sox Pythagorean Win-Loss Record is 38-31, for those of you who don't know what a Pythagorean Win-Loss is (like me before you) click here >>Frequently Asked Questions - Baseball-Reference.com

If you look at the other Pythagorean records of AL Central teams it reads as such:
CLE: 31-37
DET: 33-35
KC: 31-36
MIN: 26-41

Now maybe I'm reading too much into Bill James shit, but looking at these numbers makes me want to reconsider selling... again... yea sue me.

If the the Pythagorean Win-Loss shows anything, it shows that the White Sox have been playing by far the best baseball in the AL Central hence them being the only team with a winning Pythagoran Win-Loss which will now be abbreviated PW-L because I am getting sick of typing it. So maybe we should hold off selling. I don't know anymore, Kenny, just do what you have to do I'm done speculating, it's too mentally straining.

Discuss.

 

[dabynsky]

The predictive value of it is somewhat limited though. It doesn't take into account, for example, if one team has had a number of players injuried and therefore lowered their current run production/prevention, which is what pythagorean records are based on. Also if you want to go a little deeper check out 2nd order and 3rd order pythagorean records at Baseball Prospectus.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

I think that this proves the exact opposite of what you're thinking. You're saying sell because they should be better than they are. But what this says is that things will turn around if players play up to their averages or maybe even a little better. Which means keep the current players and let it work out.

I'm not a huge fan of this and basing a lot off of it. It's nice to look at to see how lucky/unlucky your team is, but basing a lot off of it isn't really a good idea. For more lucky/unlucky you can look at team BABIP for hitters and if it's over .300 you're lucky, under the opposite. And for pitchers team BABIP if it's above .300 they're unlucky, over the opposite.

But that's only a guideline and only refers to if it's extremely over or extremely above. Really, luck is hard to calculate just because it will change from game to game.

 

[dabynsky]

He actually wrote that he changed his mind on selling because of it. He said in the last paragraph that they ought to hold onto their players because they are playing the best ball.

 

[whitesoxman77]

The predictive value of it is somewhat limited though. It doesn't take into account, for example, if one team has had a number of players injuried and therefore lowered their current run production/prevention, which is what pythagorean records are based on. Also if you want to go a little deeper check out 2nd order and 3rd order pythagorean records at Baseball Prospectus.

Predictive? The formula uses actual runs scored and actual runs allowed. Maybe I'm wrong but I would say that the PW-L is just pointing out that the White Sox should have won this many games because they have scored more runs than their opponents, I dont find the 2nd and 3rd order PW-L records interesting though because although it improves Cleveland's record to .500 it still shows the White Sox are the far superior team which is the point I am trying to make.

While CLE and DET have been hampered by injuries, DET has only recently been affected with Dirks and Avila going down, and CLE was never supposed to be this good anyway. Now, dont get me wrong the Sox weren't supposed to be good either but they have a great offense and solid starting pitching when they're on, and DET still has a very dangerous offense with Fielder hitting about .391 w/RISP.

 

[dabynsky]

Predictive? The formula uses actual runs scored and actual runs allowed. Maybe I'm wrong but I would say that the PW-L is just pointing out that the White Sox should have won this many games because they have scored more runs than their opponents, I dont find the 2nd and 3rd order PW-L records interesting though because although it improves Cleveland's record to .500 it still shows the White Sox are the far superior team which is the point I am trying to make.

While CLE and DET have been hampered by injuries, DET has only recently been affected with Dirks and Avila going down, and CLE was never supposed to be this good anyway. Now, dont get me wrong the Sox weren't supposed to be good either but they have a great offense and solid starting pitching when they're on, and DET still has a very dangerous offense with Fielder hitting about .391 w/RISP.

The predictive component you seem to be hinting at is that the White Sox are playing the best ball in the AL Central. The argument being that therefore that should continue into the future. I gave the examples of injuries as one thing that can deflate a team's pythagorean record. Your choose to include teams into that hypothetical situation I described. The BP standings are interesting because it points out that the difference might not be as great as the raw run differential points. You are free to draw whatever conclusions you want from that.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

He actually wrote that he changed his mind on selling because of it. He said in the last paragraph that they ought to hold onto their players because they are playing the best ball.

I fail at reading. I totally misread what he said in that one paragraph.

 

[whitesoxman77]

The predictive component you seem to be hinting at is that the White Sox are playing the best ball in the AL Central. The argument being that therefore that should continue into the future. I gave the examples of injuries as one thing that can deflate a team's pythagorean record. Your choose to include teams into that hypothetical situation I described. The BP standings are interesting because it points out that the difference might not be as great as the raw run differential points. You are free to draw whatever conclusions you want from that.

What are the BP standings? Sorry I'm not good with abbreviations :lol:
oh Baseball Prospectus nvm