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Why Is Randy Wells Battling for a Rotation Spot? | FanGraphs Baseball
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One of the more compelling story lines for any team in the spring is the battle, whether faux or real, for the final rotation spots. We often see teams set up battles among youngsters and veterans to foster a sense of competition — that is, so that they take nothing for granted. What we don’t often see is a team’s second best pitcher without a guaranteed rotation spot. Yet that is happening in the Chicago camp. Early in the spring we learned that Randy Wells was not guaranteed a role in the rotation, but was instead in a battle with the likes of Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer for two open spots. The perception of a battle continues into March, which makes it even more baffling.
During the last two seasons Wells has been the Cubs’ second best pitcher to Ryan Dempster. While both Ted Lilly and Carlos Zambrano had lower ERAs, they also pitched fewer innings: Wells was 77.1 innings ahead of Zambrano and 65.2 up on Lilly. Zambrano had a better FIP, but a worse xFIP. Lilly had similar FIPs and xFIPs. It all amounted to 6.4 WAR for Wells, 5.9 for Zambrano, and 5.1 for Lilly. If you’d rather measure based on overall outcomes rather than fielding-independent ones, Wells’s 6.1 bWAR topped Zambrano’s 5.4 and Lilly’s 6.0. Now that Lilly has moved west, it’s even clearer that Wells is the second best remaining pitcher.
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