Winston: Letting Ben Gordon Go Beyond Stupid

[??? ??????]

So we're saying if you're talking box score based stats, you're going to miss defense ...
A lot of it. Not all of it, a lot of it. You're also missing things like taking the charge. Saving the ball going out of bounds, the pass that leads to the assist. Nobody knows what percentage of basketball is not in the box score, but that determines which side of the debate you're on.

But looking at the lineups, you can see a lot.

For instance, in every playoff series, there's what I call the team's kryptonite. There's two or three players on the court that the other team can't handle.

For the Mavericks against Denver last year, it was Chris Andersen and J.R. Smith. When those two were on the court, the Mavericks got killed.

So what we do is we play detective. We look at every minute those guys are on the court. What worked?

That's the type of stuff that we do.

My prediction is that the Bulls are going to stink this year. Ben Gordon and Brad Miller were their best players. They let Ben Gordon go to the team they need to beat for the playoffs? Why'd they do that?

He wanted a lot of money.

Well, he's worth it.

Letting him go is just beyond stupid. It's ridiculous. And who'd they pick up to replace him? Jannero Pargo? I looked at their lineups, and I guess that they're expecting that Luol Deng can play his position. If he's healthy -- and I don't know if he's healthy.

not to mention:

Kevin Martin always has a fantastic PER meanwhile, but every year his defense is terrible.

So, I don't mind looking at PER. If we mess up, PER would probably get it. But PER messes up a lot because it just doesn't do defense.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop...-Mark-Cuban-s-Stats-Expert-Isn-t-Bashful.html

 

[??? ??????]

On Truehoop.com I was (correctly) quoted as saying the Bulls should not have let Ben Gordon go, especially to a bitter divisional rival (Detroit). Gordon’s performance has been erratic but last year was 18th in the league in our Adjusted +/- and he was 4th in Impact, which measure how you change the chance that your team wins. If you saw the Celtics-Bulls series you saw how his clutch shooting can change a game. In 2007-2008 Gordon had a negative impact, but this could be because the team was poor and many players mail it in when the games have no meaning. His offense held up in 2007-2008 but his defense was very poor, leading me to believe he might have mailed it in near the end of the season, In 2004-2005 Gordon had the the league’s 2nd best impact!. He plays over 30 minutes a game. While below average on defense, he is always an above average offensive player. The Bulls were at their best against the Celtics with Miller, Gordon, Hinrich and Rose on the court. They won by around a point a minute with these guys on the court. This 4 man combo cannot be used anymore. Is Ben a bad influence off the court? I have no idea. But on the court he will be missed.

Looking at his 2007-2008 season Hinrich began the season in a really bad shooting slump (he shot 33% in November) and Gordon’s offensive rating was poor(Gordon shot 37%), probably because the defense could lay off Hinrich. Gordon’s defensive rating was horrible after January 1, indicating that he may have mailed it in. If he is healthy and wants to play I believe he is worth $10 million a season.

http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=144

 

[houheffna]

Gordon’s defensive rating was horrible after January 1, indicating that he may have mailed it in. If he is healthy and wants to play I believe he is worth $10 million a season.

That is what I said! This guy is a friggin genius!

 

[??? ??????]

^Well of course Gordon is worth $10 million a season...he's actually worth $11.8 million a season I believe.

And according to Winston, Gordon should be paid even more.

Throw out 2007-2008 (coaching problems etc.). Gordon averages 4.5 points above average overall and Impact of 27%. In a typical season these averages would place Gordon 40th in points and 15th in impact. He is young and healthy. This would indicate he deserves one of the Top 40 salaries in the league. Using the methods described on page 234 of Mathletics (based on Value of Replacement Player from baseball) I get that (assuming salary cap does not move up) Gordon should make around $14 million per year.

http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=148

 

[houheffna]

^Well of course Gordon is worth $10 million a season...he's actually worth $11.8 million a season I believe.

And according to Winston, Gordon should be paid even more.

Oh my fault, sounds like a dumbass...

Do you think every player is worth the money given to them?

You don't believe that people routinely overpay for players during free agency?

You don't believe that Dumars was actually bidding against himself?

Dumars would have done similar for Vinnie Johnson, and it would have been the same mistake...

 

[mlewinth]

I think only time will tell on this one. Obviously, the Bulls are not better without Ben Gordon. We let him go for cap reasons. Will we get a major free agent next offseason? Time will tell....

 

[TheStig]

houheffna wrote:

Gordon’s defensive rating was horrible after January 1, indicating that he may have mailed it in. If he is healthy and wants to play I believe he is worth $10 million a season.

That is what I said! This guy is a friggin genius!

So the bulls must be idiots for not jumping at the chance to sign him for $9 million per year.

 

[cool007]

TheStig wrote:

houheffna wrote:

Gordon’s defensive rating was horrible after January 1, indicating that he may have mailed it in. If he is healthy and wants to play I believe he is worth $10 million a season.

That is what I said! This guy is a friggin genius!

So the bulls must be idiots for not jumping at the chance to sign him for $9 million per year.

Exactly. It was a horrible move when BG (finally) wanted to sign but Bulls mgmt decided to pull the offer.

Imagine Gordon making $9mil a year or something, that's a VERY GOOD bargain. It would have been the smartest move by Bulls mgmt since LONG LONG time. They overpaid Hinrich/Deng/Chandler etc but the guy who made the most impact, they were reluctant to re-sign him.

I mean, do you know Deng and his health??? He can go down any time and will miss ton of games, what happens then??? I would much rather pay $11.8mil to Gordon and keep him instead of paying $12mil+ a year to fragile Deng who has already missed so much time at this young age, it will only get worse as he gets older.

In the short term, I think they will definitely miss Gordon (depending on how well Rose develops and if he can make that big jump like most star players do). But in the long term, it MAY not matter.

Let's say if we sign Wade next summer, all is forgiven and I wouldn't even remember about Gordon and how we didn't resign him back etc. But, let's say if we sign Bosh (or Amare) only and no Wade/Bron etc, then I would be killing the MGMT. Why?? Coz imagine having Rose/Gordon backcourt with Bosh/Amare inside, You would have LEGIT 1st/2nd/3rd option with Noah/Johnson and/or Deng as the other core players. That is a contending team for the title every freaking year.

 

[??? ??????]

That is roughly my stance. There are a few scenarios to play out.

1. We get Lebron/Wade - Damn Jerry Reindsorf, you're a genius!

2. We get Amare Stoudemire/Chris Bosh - Great move, but it sure would be nice to have Gordon as he is the perfect complement for such a player.

3. Dirk Nowitzki - Pretty much the same as above, only Dirk is older, so it would be a little disappointing.

4. Joe Johnson/Carlos Boozer - Lateral move. Would have been better to re-sign Gordon and leverage our expiring contracts. Boozer is especially iffy because of his injury concerns.

5. None of the above = WTF!

 

[pinkizdead]

supposedly next years draft class is filled with bigs, yet we went for bigs this year with an ample amount of available guards. If we dont sign a big agent this summer, last summer made no sense to me at all.

 

[houheffna]

Joe Johnson is NOT a lateral move from Ben Gordon,

NOT a lateral move....Joe Johnson is a MULTIPLE ALLSTAR!

Gordon to Boozer is a lateral move? Are you kidding me?

 

[houheffna]

So the bulls must be idiots for not jumping at the chance to sign him for $9 million per year.

They jumped at the chance to sign him, he didn't jump at the chance to sign with the Bulls...

 

[pinkizdead]

gordon to boozer is a down grade. he's injured all the time. Deng and boozer on teh same team. yeah. brilliant. two untradeable contract.

 

[houheffna]

The Boozer that handled business against the Lakers? Better player and more effective on both sides of the court than we have ever seen Gordon. Who said that contract was untradeable? Utah wants a certain amount of talent in return...teams are interested in Boozer. You don't think Detroit would rather have Boozer than Charlie V?

 

[clonetrooper264]

??? ?????? wrote:

That is roughly my stance. There are a few scenarios to play out.

1. We get Lebron/Wade - Damn Jerry Reindsorf, you're a genius!

2. We get Amare Stoudemire/Chris Bosh - Great move, but it sure would be nice to have Gordon as he is the perfect complement for such a player.

3. Dirk Nowitzki - Pretty much the same as above, only Dirk is older, so it would be a little disappointing.

4. Joe Johnson/Carlos Boozer - Lateral move. Would have been better to re-sign Gordon and leverage our expiring contracts. Boozer is especially iffy because of his injury concerns.

5. None of the above = WTF!

1. Agree
2. Agree
3. Agree, but I highly doubt Dirk goes anywhere. He's a lifelong Mav in my book. No way Cuban lets him go.
4. I'd say it's a bit better than lateral. It's a slight improvement over Gordon. Moreso if we get Boozer because then we actually get a low post threat.
5. Agree wholeheartedly.

 

[Diddy1122]

??? ?????? wrote:

That is roughly my stance. There are a few scenarios to play out.

1. We get Lebron/Wade - Damn Jerry Reindsorf, you're a genius!

2. We get Amare Stoudemire/Chris Bosh - Great move, but it sure would be nice to have Gordon as he is the perfect complement for such a player.

3. Dirk Nowitzki - Pretty much the same as above, only Dirk is older, so it would be a little disappointing.

4. Joe Johnson/Carlos Boozer - Lateral move. Would have been better to re-sign Gordon and leverage our expiring contracts. Boozer is especially iffy because of his injury concerns.

5. None of the above = WTF!

1. Agree
2. Agree, but we have Derrick Rose. C'mon. Derrick Rose
3. Agree, I'd love to have him but I don't see him leaving Dallas.
4. WTF? Lateral Move? Johnson & Boozer are better than Gordon. No denying it. Johnson is a 3x all star for cryin' out loud! He's also been one of the most durable players 4 of the last 5 seasons. Boozer, when healthy & motivated is a beast down low, something Bulls have never had. Both are an upgrade over BG.
5. We kidnap Reinsdorf's family, hold them for ransom, until he agrees to sell us majority stock in the team. Who's with me?

 

[??? ??????]

clonetrooper264 wrote:

??? ?????? wrote:

That is roughly my stance. There are a few scenarios to play out.

1. We get Lebron/Wade - Damn Jerry Reindsorf, you're a genius!

2. We get Amare Stoudemire/Chris Bosh - Great move, but it sure would be nice to have Gordon as he is the perfect complement for such a player.

3. Dirk Nowitzki - Pretty much the same as above, only Dirk is older, so it would be a little disappointing.

4. Joe Johnson/Carlos Boozer - Lateral move. Would have been better to re-sign Gordon and leverage our expiring contracts. Boozer is especially iffy because of his injury concerns.

5. None of the above = WTF!

1. Agree
2. Agree
3. Agree, but I highly doubt Dirk goes anywhere. He's a lifelong Mav in my book. No way Cuban lets him go.
4. I'd say it's a bit better than lateral. It's a slight improvement over Gordon. Moreso if we get Boozer because then we actually get a low post threat.
5. Agree wholeheartedly.

You have to keep in mind that to get these guys, we're not only losing Ben Gordon, but we're also losing Tyrus Thomas and possibly John Salmons too.

 

[TheStig]

houheffna wrote:

So the bulls must be idiots for not jumping at the chance to sign him for $9 million per year.

They jumped at the chance to sign him, he didn't jump at the chance to sign with the Bulls...

I remember the bulls clearly jumping the offer off the table when BG agreed to sign. I understand your deadline arguement but if they were really jumping at the chance to sign him it wouldn't have made a difference. It also goes to point that the bulls suppsedly made resigning bg a priority to resign and then never made an offer but I am done talking about how this fell apart and will just remember one thing. The 2009/2010 Chicago Bulls: it was a business move.

 

[houheffna]

The 2009/2010 Chicago Bulls: it was a business move.

That statement makes absolutely no damn sense whatsoever....none.

You have to keep in mind that to get these guys, we're not only losing Ben Gordon, but we're also losing Tyrus Thomas and possibly John Salmons too.

None of the three are that big a loss...