2016 Too Early Predictions: Fangraphs Projects Cubs to most Wins

[DanTown]

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

NL Central
Cubs: 95-67
Cardinals: 84-78
Pirates: 84-78
Reds: 73-89
Brewers: 71-91

Notable NL/AL teams
Dodgers: 90-72
Giants: 86-76 (wild card)
Diamondbacks: 79-83
Nationals: 89-73
Mets: 84-78
Red Sox: 92-70 (only 90+ win team in AL)
White Sox: 81-81

It's obviously tough to project when so many potential decently valuable FA (Cespedes, Upton, Davis, Kendrick, Chen all project to be 2-3 WAR players) exist but a good barometer to start the conversation.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think once again everyone is overestimating the Dodgers. I still think the Giants likely win that division with the Diamondbacks as the WC. The Dodgers keep signing pitchers but I can't figure out who's their #2 starter after Kershaw. Looks like a bunch of #4s maybe a fringe 3 in there.

 

[brett05]

With the unbalanced schedule I'd be shocked if the Cubs do not have the most wins in the majors in 2016.

 

[beckdawg]

I think once again everyone is overestimating the Dodgers. I still think the Giants likely win that division with the Diamondbacks as the WC. The Dodgers keep signing pitchers but I can't figure out who's their #2 starter after Kershaw. Looks like a bunch of #4s maybe a fringe 3 in there.

I mean they got 1.5 fWAR out of Puig last season after 4.1 and 5.3 the previous 2. You'll have a full year of Corey Seager and Pederson's 2nd year. And they also have one of the deeper farm systems in baseball not to mention assuming they do sign that cuban pitcher they've been rumored on the past couple of days, they will have spent over $100 mil on IFA's after taxes and what not this year.

Certainly they have questions but they also have the ability to fix any issue they have. Their offense is probably one of the better in the NL. And after Kershaw while their pitching is iffy, it's also incredibly deep. Right now you're looking at Kazmir who is probably a decent #3, Brett Anderson who you'd probably want as a #4, Hyun-Jin Ryu who's been a solid #3 in the past, and a host of other guys to cover their 3-5. They don't have an obvious #2 right now but consider Alex Wood is 25 and could easily break out. Also consider Julio Urias should start the year in AAA and potentially is on a fast track to the majors. And outside of that, there's basically nothing stopping them from trading several good prospects for a solid #2. Besides Urias, they have Jose De Leon(mlb.com's #23 prospect), and Frankie Montas(#54) slated to start next year in AAA.

So, I wouldn't necessarily call the dodgers as presently situated as a "complete" team. However, outside of Kyle Crick, Steven Okert, and Josh Osich the Giants aren't likely to get much out of their minors and all 3 of those people are pitchers which is where they dumped most of their FA money. As such, I'd argue the difference between the two teams is the Giants are basically stuck with what they have where as the dodgers have lots of room to grow. Not to mention that because the dodgers are so deep with their pitching that from a regular season stand point they are possibly better off than most teams. They are projected as getting 8.4 fWAR out of their 2-5 right now. The giants are projected as having 7.6 and while I think they might be a little low on Cain(0.7) just goes to show you that depth in the regular season makes a difference.

I would question the dodgers in regard to the post season but then they don't have to run out those pitchers in the post season. They just have to tread water until someone puts a decent pitcher up for a reasonable trade. For example, let's say the Nationals tank early. They very realistically could put Strasburg up for trade given I think he's a 2017 FA. The dodgers have more than enough parts to make that deal and suddenly he makes a pretty decent #2 if he's healthy.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I mean they got 1.5 fWAR out of Puig last season after 4.1 and 5.3 the previous 2. You'll have a full year of Corey Seager and Pederson's 2nd year. And they also have one of the deeper farm systems in baseball not to mention assuming they do sign that cuban pitcher they've been rumored on the past couple of days, they will have spent over $100 mil on IFA's after taxes and what not this year.

Certainly they have questions but they also have the ability to fix any issue they have. Their offense is probably one of the better in the NL. And after Kershaw while their pitching is iffy, it's also incredibly deep. Right now you're looking at Kazmir who is probably a decent #3, Brett Anderson who you'd probably want as a #4, Hyun-Jin Ryu who's been a solid #3 in the past, and a host of other guys to cover their 3-5. They don't have an obvious #2 right now but consider Alex Wood is 25 and could easily break out. Also consider Julio Urias should start the year in AAA and potentially is on a fast track to the majors. And outside of that, there's basically nothing stopping them from trading several good prospects for a solid #2. Besides Urias, they have Jose De Leon(mlb.com's #23 prospect), and Frankie Montas(#54) slated to start next year in AAA.

So, I wouldn't necessarily call the dodgers as presently situated as a "complete" team. However, outside of Kyle Crick, Steven Okert, and Josh Osich the Giants aren't likely to get much out of their minors and all 3 of those people are pitchers which is where they dumped most of their FA money. As such, I'd argue the difference between the two teams is the Giants are basically stuck with what they have where as the dodgers have lots of room to grow. Not to mention that because the dodgers are so deep with their pitching that from a regular season stand point they are possibly better off than most teams. They are projected as getting 8.4 fWAR out of their 2-5 right now. The giants are projected as having 7.6 and while I think they might be a little low on Cain(0.7) just goes to show you that depth in the regular season makes a difference.

I would question the dodgers in regard to the post season but then they don't have to run out those pitchers in the post season. They just have to tread water until someone puts a decent pitcher up for a reasonable trade. For example, let's say the Nationals tank early. They very realistically could put Strasburg up for trade given I think he's a 2017 FA. The dodgers have more than enough parts to make that deal and suddenly he makes a pretty decent #2 if he's healthy.

You make some valid points, I just don't the makeup of their team. While Arizona doesn't have as a much talent and SF isn't as deep as you say, I like them both over LA. Mainly because I don't see a plan. I don't see an identity. That certainly could emerge and they absolutely have the resources to make a trade, I'd bet more on Sonny Gray than Strasburg though, I just don't see it right now and I really like the Giants overall pitching staff and Arizona's top 3. Also I'm not sure how you call Kazmir a solid three as he has the same issue of 4 and 5 pitchers have in that he doesn't get through the batting order for the first time.

Listen, it's going to be a stronger field in the NL this year, even with only 8 or maybe 9 teams (if you buy the Marlins as a contender) even trying. I think Fangraphs is underestimating the other teams in the NL Central and underestimating the Mets and D-Backs. We'll all see though.

 

[beckdawg]

You make some valid points, I just don't the makeup of their team. While Arizona doesn't have as a much talent and SF isn't as deep as you say, I like them both over LA. Mainly because I don't see a plan. I don't see an identity. That certainly could emerge and they absolutely have the resources to make a trade, I'd bet more on Sonny Gray than Strasburg though, I just don't see it right now and I really like the Giants overall pitching staff and Arizona's top 3. Also I'm not sure how you call Kazmir a solid three as he has the same issue of 4 and 5 pitchers have in that he doesn't get through the batting order for the first time.

Listen, it's going to be a stronger field in the NL this year, even with only 8 or maybe 9 teams (if you buy the Marlins as a contender) even trying. I think Fangraphs is underestimating the other teams in the NL Central and underestimating the Mets and D-Backs. We'll all see though.

Well honestly the scary part about LA is they have so much money that even not having a clear plan they can often just throw money at problems. For example, they've spent $87 mil on IFA's after luxury tax and overage penalty. They also spent $30-33 mil on Yaisel Sierra and $25-80 mil depending on incentives on Kenta Maeda and I believe they also have the $20 mil posting fee on him too. IF we look at just the low end of that at $87 + $30 + $25 that's $142 mil they've spent this offseason on international players and it's entirely plausible they aren't done. Putting that in context, that's likely to be around the cubs 2016 opening day payroll on maybe 2 players who will see the field in 2016.

So, that's the absurdity of their franchise right now. And that's not to even mention what they did at last year's deadline. They signed Hector Olivera to a 6 year $62.5 contract prior to last season and then parlayed that into a some what complicated trade with the braves. The gist of it was Mat Latos and Michael Morse from the Marlins to the dodgers, Jose Peraza, Alex Wood, Bronson Arroyo, Jim Johnson and Luis Avilan from the braves. Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez and Zachary Bird went to the braves from the dodgers. Victor Araujo, Jeff Brigham and Kevin Guzman were sent from the dodgers to Miami. Brigham was the only prospect in the top 30 for the dodgers. Olivera was also the "get" for the Braves. I think the dodgers also ate $500k and Miami sent a compensation pick to the braves.

The rub here is the dodgers more or less payed $63 mil to acquire a 24 year old Wood who looks really promising, Mat Latos and Jose Peraza(presently #24 on mlb.com) who i believe was a top 50 prospect but definitely top 75. They later parlayed Peraza and Brandon Dixon for Micah Johnson, Frankie Montas and Trayce Thompson. Montas(dodgers #4 prospect), Micah Johnson(#8) and Trayce Thompson(#16) make the fall out of that deal even better. In other words, their budget allows them to be super creative in trades where other teams can't exactly say the same.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Any team can throw money around and still not win. Team wins, not a bunch of individuals. There is something about the Dodgers that sets off my spidey sense.

 

[SilenceS]

I don't fear the Dodgers. I think they will accumulate wins, but they don't scare me for playoffs. I was praying they beat the Mets because I wanted to play them over the Mets. I feel the same way this year. Also, I think the Backs are highly under rated. That is a good young lineup and probably have the best hitter in the NL. David Peralta is going to be key. Did he really figure it out or was it an outliner. Either way, guy stung the ball last year.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't fear the Dodgers. I think they will accumulate wins, but they don't scare me for playoffs.

I tend to agree with this but as I said, wouldn't surprise me if they win a lot of regular season games.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Any team can throw money around and still not win. Team wins, not a bunch of individuals. There is something about the Dodgers that sets off my spidey sense.

See that's exactly where I'm at with them. In most contending organizations you can see a distinct plan. You may agree or not agree with it but it's usually clear. I don't see that with the Dodgers. They look like a collection of parts, maybe some very good ones, but parts just the same. I also don't discount the real possibility that there are two many voices in the room in terms of their FO. How many GMs do you need? You're talking about a bunch of smart, successful alpha males trying to make singular decisions. How often does that work? Maybe they win a lot of games but that's a tough division even if you don't think Arizona is quite there yet, which I actually do.

 

[beckdawg]

Any team can throw money around and still not win. Team wins, not a bunch of individuals. There is something about the Dodgers that sets off my spidey sense.

It's a fair point but let's not forget they won 92 games last season. And while obviously they lost Grienke, they were the prototypical 2 star pitchers and hope for rain type team. They are a lot deeper in the rotation for 2016. My thing with the money though was more that they have set themselves up to have ammo to add as needed. It's entirely possible the trade market breaks open soon. It would seem some what weird but this is an unusual offseason. Once the dust settles on the bigger name FA out there you're going to have teams who have needs and can't fill them with FAs. As an aside, this is also why i think the cubs could still make some interesting moves via trade.

 

[beckdawg]

See that's exactly where I'm at with them. In most contending organizations you can see a distinct plan. You may agree or not agree with it but it's usually clear. I don't see that with the Dodgers. They look like a collection of parts, maybe some very good ones, but parts just the same. I also don't discount the real possibility that there are two many voices in the room in terms of their FO. How many GMs do you need? You're talking about a bunch of smart, successful alpha males trying to make singular decisions. How often does that work? Maybe they win a lot of games but that's a tough division even if you don't think Arizona is quite there yet, which I actually do.

This is why I'd suggest they can win a lot of games but wouldn't be a great playoff team. As for their plan, I think you are dealing with a couple of things here. To start with you had the sale of the team a few years ago and clearly the ownership group was pushing winning now so they did the massive sell off deal with Boston. However, that necessitated other moves to compete then and now. Since they have moved on some to Feldman, I think the move has been more about building a sustainable team. And to me this is where they get scary because using their money the way they have in IFA this year and the trade i mentioned to acquire young talent should be some what terrifying. It's sort of what the cubs have done with tanking without having to be terrible. That being said, I'm not sure the league will allow this IFA splurge trend to continue as they seem to be pushing for an international draft. But even if that does happen they've already got their benefit out. And the thing is the money they have will always allow them to be creative.

 

[DanTown]

See that's exactly where I'm at with them. In most contending organizations you can see a distinct plan. You may agree or not agree with it but it's usually clear. I don't see that with the Dodgers. They look like a collection of parts, maybe some very good ones, but parts just the same. I also don't discount the real possibility that there are two many voices in the room in terms of their FO. How many GMs do you need? You're talking about a bunch of smart, successful alpha males trying to make singular decisions. How often does that work? Maybe they win a lot of games but that's a tough division even if you don't think Arizona is quite there yet, which I actually do.

I see the plan: let their bad money expire then be very strategic in who gets money and for how long/much. I think they decided that the FA market wasn't worth giving up a pick for so that's why they went after Kazmir and then Maeta. They also don't carry long term guaranteed money.

Lest we forget

Record when Kershaw/Grienke started: 43-22
Record when they didn't: 49-48

I think guys like Friedman, Theo, etc don't want to spend a ton on big name FA unless they're bringing in a value. When they stop paying $40 million to Either/Crawford, they're going to be dangerous if they have a farm system behind them.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Cubs and Dbacks will face off in the NLCS. That is all that matters.....

 

[Boobaby1]

Cubs and Dbacks will face off in the NLCS. That is all that matters.....

Wonder why people are not picking the Cardinals or Pirates to possibly match up or go late in the playoffs? Sure, Heyward and Lackey are gone, but they now have picked up Leake, and get Wainright and Matt Adams back.

The off season is not over, and they could still land a player if needed, but an outfield of Holiday, Grichuk, and Piscotty (assuming Piscotty doesn't play 1st base) isn't too shabby. And lets not forget about Carpenter, Wong, Peralta, and Molina in the infield.

Oh, did I mention the bullpen that they have?

If the Cardinals remain healthy, they will still be tough to beat.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Wonder why people are not picking the Cardinals or Pirates to possibly match up or go late in the playoffs? Sure, Heyward and Lackey are gone, but they now have picked up Leake, and get Wainright and Matt Adams back.

The off season is not over, and they could still land a player if needed, but an outfield of Holiday, Grichuk, and Piscotty (assuming Piscotty doesn't play 1st base) isn't too shabby. And lets not forget about Carpenter, Wong, Peralta, and Molina in the infield.

Oh, did I mention the bullpen that they have?

If the Cardinals remain healthy, they will still be tough to beat.

I agree on the Cardinals, I never write them off and still think they could trade for CarGo. Still they have question marks in a lot of places. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, really needed to make some moves and didn't. Yes the key pieces are there but there was attrition and very little forward movement. This is a team that's gotten close to the top for years without reaching it, a slow start could really sap morale. Given that and the fact that bothe the East and West could produce a WC team I'd be shocked if both WC came out of the Central.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Molina's thumb needed a second surgery because the first didn't work, IIRC. Does anyone know if he's going to be healthy and ready?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Molina's thumb needed a second surgery because the first didn't work, IIRC. Does anyone know if he's going to be healthy and ready?

I think that's a huge question. He's supposed to be ready for ST but how is that injury going to feel early in cold temps? I'm not discounting them at all and thing Fangraphs 84 wins is likely low but they do have some serious questions.

On another note, is Miami at least a fringe contender if everyone is healthy? In Fernandez, Stanton, Gordon and even Chen they have some nice pieces. I wouldn't call them a contender but if they got hot early you never know.

 

[beckdawg]

Wonder why people are not picking the Cardinals or Pirates to possibly match up or go late in the playoffs? Sure, Heyward and Lackey are gone, but they now have picked up Leake, and get Wainright and Matt Adams back.

The off season is not over, and they could still land a player if needed, but an outfield of Holiday, Grichuk, and Piscotty (assuming Piscotty doesn't play 1st base) isn't too shabby. And lets not forget about Carpenter, Wong, Peralta, and Molina in the infield.

Oh, did I mention the bullpen that they have?

If the Cardinals remain healthy, they will still be tough to beat.

The problem I have with the cardinals is their offense was terrible last year. They were 11th in runs/g last season in the NL and now you're subtracting Heywards bat? Most of their games were very tight games and they had a team ERA that was basically like throwing Bumgarner every start. Losing Heyward's defense also hurts there too. I am not going to make definitive statements until the final rosters are set but they are entirely reliant on their pitching at this point and they've already had a number of injury issues plus have guys coming back from injuries.

Molina is gonna be 34 and he himself is battling an injury. Holliday will be 36 and he too isn't the picture of health. Peralta will be 34. Adams and Wong are ok but not really scary. Carpenter is pretty good but he's not really a heart of the order guy you fear. And Grichuk and Piscotty are decent guys but they aren't super stars. Overall, they strike me as a team without many holes but also a team who doesn't have many super stars. I think they need to add a piece or two before you're really worried about them.

 

[DanTown]

The problem I have with the cardinals is their offense was terrible last year. They were 11th in runs/g last season in the NL and now you're subtracting Heywards bat? Most of their games were very tight games and they had a team ERA that was basically like throwing Bumgarner every start. Losing Heyward's defense also hurts there too. I am not going to make definitive statements until the final rosters are set but they are entirely reliant on their pitching at this point and they've already had a number of injury issues plus have guys coming back from injuries.

Molina is gonna be 34 and he himself is battling an injury. Holliday will be 36 and he too isn't the picture of health. Peralta will be 34. Adams and Wong are ok but not really scary. Carpenter is pretty good but he's not really a heart of the order guy you fear. And Grichuk and Piscotty are decent guys but they aren't super stars. Overall, they strike me as a team without many holes but also a team who doesn't have many super stars. I think they need to add a piece or two before you're really worried about them.

Team ERA - 2.94
Team FIP - 3.47

Team BABIP - .303

I'd bet on regression being a *****.