Buster Olney has the Cubs as the best team in baseball and his pick to win the 2016 World Series over the Kansas City Royals. It's an insider article today, just can read the beginning part for free.
The Chicago Cubs' 2015 season ended with a humbling sweep at the hands of the New York Mets, but in listening to the Chicago players and to manager Joe Maddon right after defeat, it didn't sound like an ending. Rather, they seemed to view it as a beginning, in the way they framed it emotionally, knowing how young they are, knowing that there is room for growth in this group of players.
Buster's top-10 teams, by position area
Starting rotations: Mets easily No. 1
Bullpens: Yankees the clear top unit
Infields: Cubs leap to top spot
Outfields: McCutchen-led Bucs are No. 1
Lineups: Blue Jays power way to No. 1
Defenses: Royals edge D-backs for top spot
Overall teams: How 'bout those Cubbies
"For me personally, I walked in the door not really knowing anybody in Arizona, hardly anybody when we got there in February, and how we built relationships and created a culture within one year is pretty spectacular within the clubhouse," Maddon said, detailing what he told the players right after they were eliminated.
"I mentioned to them how important it is as we move forward and [when] we go to spring training next year, we know exactly what we want to do and how we want to do it. On top of that, our young players have learned how to win on a major league level, which matters. And to get within four games of the World Series in your freshman year is not a bad thing."
Words worth remembering for this final chapter of our winter rankings, based on the input of evaluators: the top 10 teams in 2016.
1. Chicago Cubs
The addition of Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist makes the Cubs even better and deeper, both at the plate and in the field, and they also added a reliable rotation plow horse in John Lackey. Their greatest challenge might be doing everything they can to win the National League Central over the course of the long season, because they've witnessed first-hand how a great team like the Pittsburgh Pirates can be reduced to a one-night-stand wild-card game and subsequently eliminated.
The Cubs are the early pick here to take another step forward this year and do something they haven't done since 1908: win the World Series. And they'll beat the …
2. Kansas City Royals
If you've been paying attention to statistical projections this winter, then you know that once again, some metrics suggest the Royals will be a sub-.500 team. I'm not smart enough to understand why it is that Kansas City's model doesn't seem to translate well in these metrics. Maybe they don’t take into account the true impact of a home ballpark that protects and cultivates pitchers, or maybe they don't measure the culture of loyalty that has developed within the organization.
Whatever.
The Royals are an excellent team toughened by their postseason experience, right in the middle of their window of opportunity. It will not be easy for another American League Central team to knock off a club that makes few mistakes defensively, and has arguably baseball's best reliever in Wade Davis. Also, the Royals' rotation has a chance, it appears, to be K.C.'s best and deepest in recent seasons.
3. Boston Red Sox
Boston's progress was demonstrated in the final months of the 2015 season, and this offseason the team added three high-impact pitchers in David Price, Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith. Boston also should have a good, and deep, lineup, although they have a lot to sort through and questions that need to be answered, particularly surrounding players theoretically in the middle of their batting order. Can Hanley Ramirez can be a first baseman? Will Pablo Sandoval produce? How much can the team expect from aging stars such as David Ortiz?
After back-to-back seasons of finishing in last place, there will be continued pressure on the Red Sox to win the division following some of their big offseason deals, and David Dombrowski, the team's president of baseball operations, has a history of making big moves. So this will be a team to watch leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, as the Red Sox define their needs.
4. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have bet $220 million that the 2015 problems of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija were aberrant rather than a sign of things to come, and if they're right, the Giants will be a serious threat to take back the NL West, given the improved depth of their rotation and the overall strength of their everyday lineup. San Francisco has more pitching depth than it has had in a long time. They just have to keep their fingers crossed that Buster Posey, who turns 29 in March, stays healthy, which is the inherent risk you bear when a catcher is the centerpiece of your lineup.
Plus, as any Giants fan would note, 2016 is an even-numbered year, and that has worked out for San Francisco of late. (Just kidding …)
5. Texas Rangers
The Rangers were 80-58 after May 3 last season, overcoming a slow start to reach the postseason, and if they can avoid some of the devastating injuries that hammered them last spring -- to Yu Darvish, in particular -- they should be better from beginning to end. Cole Hamels leads their rotation, with Darvish expected back sometime during the season, and Rougned Odor and Delino DeShields are now established at second base and center field, respectively. More importantly, the bullpen that drove their midseason turnaround will be a whole lot better at the outset of '16 than it was in '15, with Sam Dyson, Jake Diekman and Keone Kela on board from the start.
6. Houston Astros
Unless the Astros add another starting pitcher before Opening Day, Houston will go into this season with some rotation depth questions behind Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Lance McCullers. But the Astros likely will have the flexibility to patch and fill as needed, and the addition of Ken Giles strengthens their bullpen. Meanwhile, shortstop Carlos Correa is just starting his journey as one of the best players in baseball.
7. St. Louis Cardinals
They have dominated the NL Central for more than a decade, making the postseason 12 times in the past 16 seasons -- including the past five years -- and winning the World Series in 2006 and 2011. But they lost out to the Cubs in the bidding for Jason Heyward and watched one of their most reliable starters, John Lackey, move on to Chicago as well, and they aren't sure how many games Yadier Molina can play after multiple surgeries on his thumb. Heyward innocently fed into the perception of the Cardinals as an aging team -- without malice or intent on his part -- with his choice of words at his introductory media conference.
"For me, [it was the Cubs'] winning attitude and culture and the fact that this was such a young group that I could grow myself with and be 26 years old," Heyward said. "I would rather grow up with a bunch of guys and make them family."
For the Cardinals, these were words worth noting. "I don't think it's going to ring too well with our club," St. Louis manager Mike Matheny told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
St. Louis has a ton of talent and a culture of success, and the games between the Cardinals and Cubs in 2016 will be must-watch.
8. New York Mets
The team's fan base is restless because the Mets haven't spent much money this winter, choosing to target more practical, modest choices such as Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera rather than throwing big dollars at Yoenis Cespedes. Let's face it, this is like buying a Toyota when it'd feel better to spend on a Lamborghini. But if holding off on a big-ticket item like Cespedes now means having more flexibility to make a midseason fix, that might be the way the Mets should go, because by July, they'll have a better idea how much David Wright can contribute, and whether Juan Lagares is actually going to get better.
This is a luxury you have when the Mets' starting pitching is as great as it is, at the top of a generally Jekyll-and-Hyde National League. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon and eventually Zack Wheeler will give the Mets time to understand exactly what they need.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
This has not been an easy winter for the Pirates, following a second consecutive one-and-done wild-card defeat. Pedro Alvarez was cut, A.J. Burnett retired and, as always, Pittsburgh has been carefully sorting through its nickels and trying to find ways to keep up in a high-rent district in which the cost-of-living standard is set by the Cubs and Cardinals. St. Louis and Chicago battled over Heyward, the Cardinals spent $80 million on Mike Leake, the Cubs paid big dollars for Lackey … and the Pirates landed Jon Niese in a value deal and made a bet that John Jaso can play first base.
The Pirates will still be pretty good again, and have demonstrated the ability to find and foster pitching. But overcoming the Cardinals and Cubs and avoiding the wild-card game again will be an enormous challenge.
10. Toronto Blue Jays
They led the majors in runs scored last season and their lineup remains intact, and though they didn't retain David Price, they did manage to bolster the depth of their overall staff by hanging on to Marco Estrada, signing J.A. Happ and trading for Drew Storen, not to mention they expect to have Marcus Stroman all season. One possible pitfall: If the Jays need help during the year, they almost certainly will not make anything close to the sort of trades made last summer to augment another run at the playoffs.
Best of the rest
Los Angeles Dodgers: FanGraphs' early projections have them winning the most games in the National League. The team does have a ton of roster depth, as well as questions about exactly which guys will carry the load over the course of the season. If Scott Kazmir, Brett Anderson, Kenta Maeda and others pitch as much -- and as well -- as the Dodgers expect, then L.A. could win the NL West for a fourth straight season.
And finally, you have: the Arizona Diamondbacks, greatly improved but in a competitive situation; the New York Yankees, who are hoping their starting pitching and older players hold up; the Cleveland Indians, a team of strong pitching but little margin for error; and the Washington Nationals, who need big years from Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg.
